In recent times, I have had the unique opportunity to visit Dhaka twice – first during the July/August uprising and now again, in November, three months after the revolution and the changeover.
My tale tells the story of Bangladesh in terms of the expectations in the immediate aftermath of the revolution and the changeover and now, the ground realities after 100-days of the changeover and my own assessment of the journey ahead.
The July/August 2024 uprising and the Changeover
I was in Dhaka in July this year and witnessed firsthand the student-led mass uprising and the brutal attempts by every mercenary of the Hasina Government to quell it.
I left Dhaka on 26th July. At the time when I left I saw how the general masses from all sectors were joining the student movement, daily and their numbers swelled by the day. These daily mass rallies that were violently confronted by the law enforcement agencies and the ruling party goons caused many to die and injure from bullet wounds, which swelled the ranks of the protesters even more, signalled imminent fall of the regime.
Finally, the fall came on 5th August, bringing an end to the 16 years of Hasina’s despotic and kleptocratic rule.
An Interim Government (IG), a non-political technocratic government led by Prof. Yunus, took charge.
It was my misfortune that I could not be around to join the victory celebrations. I was back in Brisbane, Australia by the then.
We all watched on the TV the jubilation in Dhaka in an atmosphere of joy, trepidation, and expectation. I kept in touch with Dhaka through friends, media, and, indeed, the vibrant and overcrowded social media that at times, conveyed speculations as facts.
Rummaging through the avalanche of news and views that came out from different sources, the impression I gathered was that the post-Hasina Bangladesh was inching forward in a positive direction.
The Interim Government (IG) which was formed in the aftermath of the Hasina fall, was functioning well: people of merit and integrity had been appointed as Advisers; a wide-ranging reform agenda had been chalked out, and work on reforms had commenced in earnest.
Despite an August flash flood and a series of disruptive counter-movements that were spearheaded by the ousted Awami League (AL) and their student wing, the thuggish Chatra League, the IG survived, and things improved since, though challenges remained.
Bangladesh in November/December: the emerging complexities
My second visit which commenced in late November and counting and at a time when the ISKON – an India patronised offshoot Hindu organization – anti-government movement and several other country-wide agitations against the IG were raising their ugly heads and during which a government lawyer was murdered by the anti-government agitating mob at a courthouse in the port city of Chittagong.
Indeed, I return visit to Dhaka in November happened at a time when it looked as though the IG is losing control. I asked myself, “If this is not anarchy, what is?”
I took time out to talk to people from different social classes, spending hours reading the print media and watching many TV shows and daily live news.
From all these the lesson I have drawn is what our beloved Prophet once said, “If you tell me that the great Uhud Mountain has shifted overnight, I will believe it, but it would be hard for me to believe if you tell me the character of our people has changed!” – what a cruel truth which so accurately reminds us that the people of Bangladesh, and perhaps many around the world which is that no revolution ever changes things overnight and this is mainly because most people don’t change their characters.
For example, to my greatest dismay I found out that two politically opposing and yet opportunistic forces, the former opposition party, Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) and the toppled Awami League goons have been making things extremely difficult for the IG for the same outcome – they both want the IG to give way for either of them to take over.
While the goons, and the loyalists of the deposed government, the Awami League and their student wing, Chatro League are constantly looking for opportunities to topple the IG and return to power, the disgruntled self-seeking, yesteryears’ opposition party, the BNP is trying to fish in the muddy water. They are putting pressure on the IG to give elections so that in the absence or presence of a weakened immediate past ruling party, the Awami League, they expect to have a walk-over.
Then there is India – Hasina government’s patron with hegemonic intents. India has given shelter to the deposed Bangladesh Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina who is not just active but super active to destabilize the current IG, which it regards as a spoiler. There are reports that India is pouring in lots of money and deploying agents alongside the AL and other Awami organizations to create disturbances and unrest. In almost all recent incidents, the Awami thugs and criminals have been creating unprecedented chaos, stalemate, and an atmosphere of unbelievable insecurity throughout Bangladesh. Even Uber drivers and private car owners are hesitant to take their vehicles onto the streets for fear of being attacked and that their vehicles damaged.
I noticed that as time passed, the post-August 5th student movements has become increasingly complex.
The Islami Chatra Shibir (the student wing of Jamaat-e-Islami, the Islamic political party in Bangladesh) which had been operating underground for a long time during the Hasina regime, has resurfaced and asserting its presence in the political arena including in educational institutions, particularly in universities across the country.
At the same, the BNP’s (one of the main political parties that Hasina kept at bay during the last decade and a half) student and youth wings, the Chatra Dal and Jubo Dal respectively are trying to replace the thuggeries of the Chatro League and establish themselves as area thugs, not only in educational institutions but menacingly, in different areas and markets around the city as extortionists. Often, Chatra Dal and Chatra Shibir clash with each other.
Again, a part of the Anti-discrimination Student Movement, which spearheaded the July-August uprising along with civic groups and a few other student platforms, has formed a new entity called the Jatiya Nagarik Committee (JNC). Recently, the members of the JNC launched a roadshow. They travelled around the country to garner support for their platform to take the lead to building a new Bangladesh. The JNC failed to garner mass support and has since wrapped up their activities.
Indeed, with so many actors and activities it is very difficult to see who in the zoo are.
To enforce law and order police and other law enforcement agencies relied on their intelligence network and their support initially, but in recent times, that mode of operation has collapsed completely.
The student groups everywhere are now openly criticizing the Anti-discrimination Student Movement and the JNC. Given the ensuing chaos and frequent breakdown in law order, it is becoming evident that the movement has started to lose its mass appeal. Some are even openly challenging whether the students would have got much response had they during the July-August uprising called for a mass gathering for the movement.
Having said that, the Anti-discrimination Student Movement has, over the past few months, acted as a pressure group and influenced the IG to ban former ruling party’s violent student wing, the Chatra League. However, has not conceded to the demand to ban Awami League, the deposed ruling party. This is sensible. That said, it is not clear at all who the IG is listening to. People say they are more confused than the public, and at times, they are seen to be bowing to BNP’s intensive demands.
The army’s role is not clear to anyone. However, it is widely believed that higher-ranking officers are still loyal to the members of the ousted Hasina regime, and there have been many leaked phone conversations revealing talks between the high-ranking army officers/generals and deposed Awami League leaders who fled the country. The Advisor – the minister – for home affairs, Lt. Gen. (ret.) Jahangir Alam Chowdhury, has proven to be weak who failed to impose command and control over the police and other law enforcement personnel. On many occasions and this is from my eye-witness account, I have seen police are playing the role of bystanders. The army, in some places, do act, but at times, these actions are too late to be of any use.
These days, Professor Yunus, the head of the IG avoids media. He gets irritated quickly. It is not clear who he is listening to, but there is one thing everyone agrees with is that he is not going to give an election any time soon, mainly because he wants the work on reforms that are underway are completed before an election is given. These reforms are primarily involve election commission reform and reform of the current constitution. Both will take longer than 12 months. The rumour is that the earliest date the government has in mind for the national election is June-July 2026. Not sure if the BNP will let the interim government (IG) delay it that long.
Notwithstanding, the biggest plus for the IG has so far been the wholehearted mass support for Prof Yunus though most people are extremely critical of the role of more than 70% of the advisors. Notably, people question the competency of the Advisers in charge of home affairs and education. Concerns have also been raised about the role the advisor from the student group, Mr Mahfuz Alam is playing these days. In recent times, he has openly criticised BNP being responsible for vilifying the July-Augst student movement and alleged that BNP is doing all it can to destabilize the IG.
Several recent events that have exposed indecisions and incompetencies of the IG such as those relating to the row involving the battery-operated auto-rikshaw issue have not helped in raising the confidence of the people in IG and this is deeply worrying.
Free media is both an asset and a pain, at times. Since August 5, 2024 the media has been granted unprecedented freedom by the IG, something that the media never have had during the last decade and a half. This is a welcome change, but the media freedom seems to have also come at a price. Not accustomed nor trained in responsible journalism, the sudden media freedom has made media more of sources of misinformation and disinformation and less of verified and evidence-based news and analyses and this is a problem. General public do not necessarily have the time nor capacity to check the authenticity and filter disinformation from the correct ones, with the result that opinions are treated as news which is unhealthy.
The road ahead
Frankly, things as they are now, look anything but inspiring. Recent ISKON inspired violence that disrupted civic harmony and led to the murder of a prosecuting lawyer at a Court premises, the striking and vandalising acts of the battery-operated rickshaw pullers, constant threats of Awami-inspired countermovement and not to forget, India’s determined and consistent efforts to sabotage the movement and re-vassalize Bangladesh and the challenging economic conditions, a left-over of the previous government and a product of the current chaos, portray a rather gloomy picture for post-Hasina Bangladesh.
I must admit that my November visit and my on-the-ground experience in Dhaka have been quite an eye-opener, if not an assault on my optimism of July visit when the uprising took place, when it looked like Bangladesh had commenced a new beginning.
In November/December I do find the situation on the ground far more complex and challenging. The optimism that many of us harboured in the immediate aftermath of the July/August uprising has since webbed, mainly because of the current realities on the ground which reminded me of Prophet Muhammad’s (SA) profound observation that victory in a battle does not “shift the mountain.” As a result, it is not unusual that post-Hasina Bangladesh has not journeyed to a better Bangladesh, not yet.
Failure is no option: no “return to the ugly past”
It is true that the journey ahead is not a bed of roses, but the good news is that most people in Bangladesh do not want to “return to the ugly past”.
People are determined in their resolve to continue their journey for a democratic, prosperous and just Bangladesh.
While I see that given the challenges, from within and across the IG is encountering presently, the aspired change will not come easily, given the resolve, persistence and resilience of people I am convinced that the change will come eventually, because for them the past is too horrific to fathom, let alone re-instal!
Therefore, the most important task for the people of Bangladesh is stay united and overcome the divisions and join hands and assist the IG for the freedom and wellbeing of all for far too long the divisions have held them back and made them suffer.
Good news is that the majority in Bangladesh already united for the change and thus no hurdle would be big enough to stop them from advancing to their avowed goal – a democratic, just and prosperous Bangladesh and signs are that slowly but steadily people in Bangladesh are moving in that direction!
The author, a Bangladeshi born Australian is a globally experienced expert in sustainable urban planning and urban development with specific focus on climate change mitigation and adaptation.