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by Hari Prasad Shrestha 13 September 2023
Political opposition constitutes one or more political parties that ideologically oppose the government. The level of opposition depends on the system of politics. The opponent may be repressed in an authoritarian system, while in a democratic system, it is desirable. Moreover, black propaganda and saboteurs are used in controlled opposition; it claims to oppose the government but internally the opposition works for the government. Revolutionary Vladimir Lenin allegedly said, “The best way to control the opposition is to lead it ourselves.”
Politics in South Asia are rushing from democratic systems towards autocratic dynamics with prospects of violence. The voters in the region are fading with the political leadership, and they are not optimistic about the future of democracy. The area suffers from corruption, lack of press freedom, violent protests, poorly working checks and balances, frequent opposition boycotts, imprisonment of opposition leaders, and opposition-less parliaments.
The BJP in India, the Awami League in Bangladesh, and the military in Pakistan have strong dominations in their national politics. The US in Pakistan, China in Sri Lanka, and India in the other countries with US support have strongholds in South Asia politics.
For many years, courts in Pakistan have furnished decisions on controversial political cases in addition to their legal ones. As per media reports, a United States-based news outlet has published what it claims to be the details of a diplomatic “cipher” – or a secret cable – that suggests the US administration wanted to remove former Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan from power last year. Mr. Khan has been arrested after a court in Islamabad sentenced him to three years in jail and disqualified him from politics for “corrupt practices” involving the sale of state gifts. However, the Islamabad High Court suspended Khan’s three-year jail sentence on corruption charges and ordered his release on bail. Immediately after this court decision, another court said Khan’s detention would continue in the “cipher case,” which relates to the leak of a secret diplomatic cable concerning the United States conspired to remove him from power last year.
Similarly, the situation in Bangladesh has been similar to Pakistan. The Special Court decision of 8th February 2018 handed a five-year sentence to Khaleda Zia of the Bangladesh Nationalist Party in connection with graft. It was barred from contesting the last elections. Moreover, a Bangladesh court recently sentenced the country’s prominent opposition leader in absentia to nine years in prison. This is the fifth time courts in this South Asian nation have handed jail time to Tarique Rahman, (son of Khaleda Zia) acting chairman of the Bangladesh Nationalist Party, who has been living in the UK since 2008. The BNP decried the ruling, terming it political victimization ahead of the forthcoming general elections.
Bhutan’s royal regime forcefully deported more than one hundred thousand Nepali-speaking citizens, including national leader Tek Nath Rizal, to refugee camps in Nepal, citing them as anti-national elements. Before deportation, Mr. Rizal, an Amnesty International’s “Prisoner of Conscience” had been in prison since 17 November 1989. He was sentenced to life imprisonment by the Thimphu High Court on November 16, 1993, for violating the National Security Act of 1992, passed two years after Rizal’s incarceration. After ten years in prison due to international pressures, he was granted a royal pardon. Unfortunately, he is in detention under investigation by Nepal police on charge of a fake Bhutanese refugee case.
Moreover, other renowned leaders in other South Asian countries have also been charged with corruption, money laundering, and other scams. In 2019, the Maldives criminal court sentenced former president Abdulla Yameen to five years in jail and fined $5 million 2019 for embezzling $1 million in state funds, which the prosecution said was acquired through the lease of resort development rights. After his sentencing, Yameen was shifted to house arrest in 2020. He was freed months after a top court overturned a money laundering and embezzlement conviction, allowing him to return to politics. Since his release, Yameen, the half-brother of former President Maumoon Abdul Gayoom, has returned to active politics with a campaign against Indian influence in Maldives, raising concerns in New Delhi.
Sri Lanka is close to strategic shipping lanes in the Indian Ocean and is a focal point for competition between India and China over regional influence. As family politics is deeply rooted and decisive in Sri Lanka, from Bandaranaike to the Rajapaksha dynasties, politics have been moved around the circle in their radius of influence. However, the recent economic crisis demolished the family politics of Sri Lanka. In 2022, a political crisis started due to the power struggle between President Gotabaya Rajapaksa and the Parliament of Sri Lanka. The problem was fuelled by anti-government protests and demonstrations by the public. Also, due to the worsening economy of 2019, the anti-government sentiment across various parts of Sri Lanka has triggered unprecedented political instability, creating shockwaves in the political arena. On July 20, 2022, Ranil Wickremesinghe was elected as the ninth President via a parliamentary election. As a result of the economic crisis in Sri Lanka, the Rajapaksa dynasty was forced to come down, and currently, there is no strong opposition in Sri Lanka.
India and Nepal are the remaining two countries in South Asia, where foremost opposition leaders and former prime ministers have yet to be indicted through legitimate processes. However, the recent incidents in both countries have been clear indications of following more or less similar trends to other South Asian countries.
There is also a tug-of-war between the executive and the judiciary in India. However, the court is still strong and it isn’t easy to influence it compared to other countries in the region. On 23 March 2023, Rahul Gandhi, the opposition leader in parliament, was convicted and sentenced to two years imprisonment by a court in Surat, Gujarat, under charges of defamation related to remarks he had made against Narendra Modi during the 2019 Indian general election campaign. The conviction disqualified him from holding any public office and made him ineligible to contest in the upcoming 2024 Indian general election. However, on 4 August, Gandhi’s conviction was stayed by the Supreme Court of India pending appeal, and his Member of Parliament was reinstated.
So far, Nepal is concerned; it needs more fair checks and balances between the three organs of the state due to executives’ upper hand in appointments in constitutional bodies. And the frequency of ignoring court orders by the government is substantively high.
For example, recently, the government spared two former prime ministers, Mr. Babu Ram Bhattarai and Mr. Madhav Nepal, from appearing before the Central Bureau of Investigation even after the Supreme Court’s order to investigate those who were final decision makers of Lalita Niwas Land Scam case. Such trends show that the government can go up to any extent to cover up crimes of their party leaders, including crimes committed by their near and dear ones. However, the Supreme Court’s order to investigate chief executives has shaken the foundation of the armor of cabinet decisions.
As a result of the weakening nature of checks and balances among state organs, days are complex and unpredictable in Nepal. It is not difficult to notice the concoction between external and domestic nexuses, who are trying to fix the political system under their spheres of influence; it’s just the beginning of the new game in Nepal.