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by Krishnaveer Singh Chahar 15 February 2022
The covid-19 pandemic has wreaked havoc in India. Its rickety healthcare system crumbled under the burgeoning load of coronavirus cases during the second wave. In the second half of 2020, India seemed like an exception in the world as it had successfully managed to survive the first wave of coronavirus pandemic. Though according to International Monetary Fund (IMF), its economy had contracted by 8% in 2020. There were forecasts that the economy will soon recover and indeed as the lockdown was lifted gradually, economic activity resumed. It seemed that India was on the path of recovery. In April 2021, IMF projected an impressive 12.5% growth rate for India 2021. However, the mismanagement of the pandemic and announcing early victory over the pandemic pushed India into a catastrophe. Lockdowns came back, economic activity came to a standstill. Today, India is facing the third wave.
The IMF projection of a 12.5% growth rate was based on the trend before the second wave struck India. Later, it revised the growth rate to 9.5% which was further revised to 9% for the current financial year, whereas it puts the forecast at 7.1% for 2022-23. Therefore, it would not be wrong to assume that India may not grow as expected and we cannot say when the economy will reach a pre-pandemic level given the unexpected nature of the virus. India’s response to the covid-19 pandemic will define its growth trajectory and its capacity to deal with various strategic issues. However, its response has been short of achieving the desired result so far.
This article will deal with the consequences of India’s faltering economy and how covid-19 induced economic turmoil could translate into a strategic predicament. In the long term, India faces some difficult questions with regards to its role in South Asia, Indo-Pacific, and relationship with China, which has become more aggressive in recent years.
In the last two decades, India’s economic boom gave it a major standing in the international system. India’s future role within Asia and the international system also depends on its economic growth. This will largely depend on how early India comes out of the pandemic. The inadequate economic growth will constrain India’s ability to deal with the challenges of development, diplomacy, and military capability as a major power. With pandemics pushing millions into poverty, India will not be able to pour money into military modernisation while people starve. This will also create a moral problem as to how a country with such contradiction can be recognised as a major responsible power. To ensure India’s interests are served on all fronts, it needs to grow consistently so that it has the capability to add material power. The effect of a pandemic is visible from the fact that there has been a decline in budget allocation for the Ministry of External Affairs (MEA) for 2022-23. Even in 2021-22, after allocating the highest budget ever (18,154.73 crores) for MEA, it was later revised to 16,000 crores.
The pandemic has raised various pertinent questions regarding India’s role in its neighbourhood and beyond. Today, India is facing a tough challenge from an assertive and more aggressive China almost everywhere. China is challenging India in South Asia, flexing its muscles on the disputed border between the two countries, and has become more militarily active in the Indo-Pacific which is an important region for trade. This compounded with the pandemic, has put India into a difficult situation where India has to devise a way to deal with China somehow, especially after a violent clash between Indian and Chinese troops in 2020.
The strain in India-China relations has given a boost to Indo-US relations as both countries have shared interests in various spheres, especially the Indo-Pacific as both the US and India want a “free and open Indo-Pacific”. The United States is increasingly viewing India as a counterweight to China, of which India has been wary. India faces a dire choice whether it should shun its reservations regarding alliances with countries or deal with China on its own. The pandemic has severely affected India’s economy whereas China’s economy still had a positive growth amidst the pandemic. Pandemic has affected both India’s image and its economy negatively. Losing steam in the economy means it will lose the capability to add material power. This will widen the gap between India and China. The easiest way to bridge that gap will be to align with the US. However, that entails constraining its strategic autonomy. India cannot seek an equal partnership with the US as long as it does not have the capability to deal with China and secure its interests. With its economy battered due to pandemics, India might be forced to align with the US as a junior partner. That will be a blow to not just India’s claims of a major power but also its capability to deal with security threats. If India happens to rely on other powers for its security, it will lose its autonomy. India’s increasing closeness with the US could be understood by looking at the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (Quad) which is a group of India, the US, Japan, and Australia. Its first-ever leader-level virtual summit was organised in the month of March 2021.
It is also referred to by many as “Asian NATO” formed to counter China. A weak India will not have much say in Quad and it will also run the risk of pushing Russia into the opposite camp. If that happens, India might lose a major arms supplier and will completely become dependent on the US. Though Quad countries have shared interests in the Indo-Pacific, Indian interest do not always align with these countries, for example, the US policies on Iran and Myanmar does not benefit India. Therefore, it is all the more important for India to sustain high economic growth to be an equal partner in the Quad.
The Pandemic also has the potential to constrain India’s role in its own backyard, i.e., neighbourhood. India has been the natural dominant power in the region due to its large size, location, and military capability. However, China has continuously challenged India in the region over the years and has considerable influence on the South Asian states except for Bhutan, which is also facing the pressure of expansionist policies of China. Except for Bhutan and India; all South Asian countries have joined the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) of China which gives huge loans for infrastructure projects. With its limited economic power, India is already facing difficulty to counter BRI. Pandemic will further constrain its economic capability to use its economic might to pull these countries out of Chinese clout. Covid-19 has brought India’s infrastructural inadequacies and bureaucratic incapability to the fore. The images of the dead going from India has put a dent on India’s claims as a major power. This might also reflect in its neighbourhood where India’s neighbours might get a message that if India is not capable of developing its own infrastructure, then how India will help us in our infrastructure development. This will further push them towards the Chinese camp which is ready to pour money into the countries. If that happens, India will lose its neighbours to China and this will lead to the encirclement of India.
The competition between China and India is so fierce that during the pandemic, both countries engaged in vaccine diplomacy- the use of vaccine exports to gain political or strategic advantages. In early 2021, Taiwan accused China of using vaccines as a pretext to make Paraguay derecognize Taiwan and change allegiance to China. China is also sending an indirect message to countries that are not part of Its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) as most of the countries which received Chinese vaccines are part of BRI. Therefore, it could be seen as an indirect message to non-BRI countries of the benefits of joining BRI. Similarly, India also sent millions of doses of vaccines to countries ranging from South Asia to Africa either in the form of grants or through commercial agreements. However, its vaccine diplomacy came to a grinding halt due to the sudden surge of Covid-19 cases domestically during the second wave of the Covid-19 pandemic. Interestingly, the vaccine supplies from China and India are overlapping in the sense that many countries have received vaccines from both countries. For example, in Africa, some of the countries that have received vaccines from both the countries are Mozambique, Senegal, Seychelles, and Zimbabwe, etc. Similarly, in South Asia, after India failed to supply vaccines due to its domestic demand, China stepped in to fill the vacuum created by India.
It is also interesting to see that Bangladesh gave approval for the emergency use of the Chinese-made Sinopharm vaccine after signing an agreement with China to enhance military cooperation between the countries. It came in the wake of the failure of India to supply vaccines to Bangladesh. Clearly, we see that India’s Vaccine Maitri (Vaccine Friendship), a name for India’s vaccine diplomacy, is lagging behind China’s vaccine diplomacy. China has used its vaccine delivery capability as a weapon to enhance its geopolitical clout and influence. China’s growing influence in countries where Indian interests are involved will have consequences for India in the long term. If India does not plan its policies and economy well, it will not be able to reduce the gap that exists between itself and China, and eventually, will have to make way for Chinese dominance. However, after the end of the second wave, India resumed vaccine export. It started with exporting vaccines to Myanmar, Bangladesh, Nepal, and Iran. India is also part of the Quad vaccine partnership which aims to supply more than a billion Covid-19 vaccines by the end of 2022. India can still gain goodwill as it is a major producer of vaccines in the world.
Pandemic has also made India change its stance on receiving foreign aid. India has been averse to receiving foreign aid for a long time because foreign aid does not always come with a humanitarian objective. It often has hidden agendas. However, India’s infrastructure failed to cope up with the pandemic and India had to rely on foreign aid for essential medical supplies. It raises few questions as to how a country that projects itself as a major power in the international system, has failed miserably to take care of its own people. Questions may be asked on India’s capability as a power. Its image as a responsible country has taken a hit as the country is being blamed for the mismanagement of the pandemic. This will be reflected in the international system as to how the country will be seen.
During the pandemic, India has seen a rise in cyber-attacks as most of the activities have shifted to digital space. India also witnessed a cyber-attack on the Mumbai electricity grid. According to a report, there was a rise of 300% in cyber-attacks in India in 2020. This will have consequences for how India seeks to identify threats and work with other countries in identifying those threats and tackling them. India will have to direct some attention to cyber security with like-minded powers.
The threats that India faces today are not completely new. However, the pandemic has exacerbated these threats and accelerated the geopolitical changes. India is facing challenges both internally and externally. It has to deal with the pandemic and also bring back its economy on track to be able to cope up with external threats. The trade and investment if moved from India due to pandemics, India will find it difficult to reach its strategic potential. The gap between its capability and potential will only widen. Pandemic has exposed India’s political and capability weaknesses for everyone to see. Therefore, it urgently needs a course correction otherwise imbalance will set in Asia, especially South Asia as China will become a dominant player leaving India behind. Strategic consequences will depend on how early India tackles the pandemic and rides on a path of recovery.