Sri Lankan voters extend Dissanayake’s mandate at local polls

COLOMBO — Sri Lanka’s left-leaning National People’s Power party government is basking in another glow of electoral triumphs following last week’s local council elections, as voters ensured the ruling party of President Anura Kumara Dissanayake won majorities in 265 of the 339 local authorities up for grabs in the South Asian nation.

The electoral map on the morning after voting on Tuesday revealed a tide of deep red, the colors of the NPP, across most of the South Asian island. It mirrored a trend reflected in the presidential and general elections in late 2024. In those two landmark elections, voters chose the anti-corruption and pro-reformist NPP in an unprecedented backlash against the entrenched, family-run political dynasties.

Last week’s polls signaled the extent of the NPP’s growing resonance with voters as it continues to realign Sri Lankan politics, ascending from the electoral margins to its current dominance. It received 4.5 million votes across the country, or an estimated 43.26% of the ballots. Trailing a distant second was the Samagi Jana Balawegaya (SJB), a centrist party that heads the parliamentary opposition, which received 2.2 million votes, or 21.69% of the ballots.

The NPP’s margin of victory in this latest election surpassed that of the 2024 presidential election won by Dissanayake, the NPP’s charismatic leader who shook the country’s political establishment as an untested leftist outsider. In that poll, he received 5.6 million votes, or 42.31% of the ballots, while his main challenger Sajith Premadasa, leader of the SJB, received 4.3 million votes, or 32.76%.

“The NPP is benefitting from the popular perception that the opposition parties have no credibility,” said Jayadeva Uyangoda, professor emeritus of political science at Colombo University. “People don’t trust the opposition because of the narrative of corruption, which is felt quite strongly among the voters.”

Dissanayake gives a speech during the May Day rally organized by the National People’s Power Party in Colombo on May 1.   © Reuters

But some observers note that the NPP’s recent victory also has some potential early warning signs of diminishing appeal.

Voter turnout for Tuesday’s polls hovered around 61%, down from 69% in the November general elections. The NPP also netted 4.5 million votes this time, compared to the 6.8 million it garnered in November — a 2.3 million vote drop.

The local election in Colombo, Sri Lanka’s largest city and its commercial capital, also showed a subtle waning of support. Although the NPP lead all contesting parties by securing 48 seats in the Colombo Municipal Council, the once formidable stronghold of the SJB and the right-of-center United National Party (UNP) — one of the country’s oldest parties — it fell short of securing a majority.

Colombo-based diplomats reckon that the NPP, which profited from the anti-government public outrage that erupted in the wake of Sri Lanka’s economic meltdown in 2022, is now in the crosshairs of voters scrutinizing the record of its six-month-old government.

“The government cannot ride on its anti-corruption crusade and clean administration, which people appreciate,” said an Asian envoy who has followed the NPP’s rise to power since last year. “It has been slow to act on its populist economic campaign pledges to help people and build a record of achievements — there is nothing, for now.”

Political insiders attribute the cautious approach of the NPP government, which is packed with inexperienced ministers, to its ideological mix. The party, a left-leaning alliance with Marxist and revolutionary antecedents, has to grapple with the tug of the dogmatic politburo of its largest constituent party vying for influence over its moderate wing of mainstream technocrats.

Yet, other analysts expect the public to retain faith in the party that toppled the former old guard that was tarnished with rampant abuse of power. “The public is still prepared to be patient and have confidence that the NPP will deliver, including the very loyal suburban middle class,” said Thilina Panduwawala, senior macroeconomist at Frontier Research, a Colombo-based economic research firm. “The drop in voter turnout was more apathy and not a vote against the government because the voters do not have an alternative choice.”

That translates to bad news for the UNP, whose defeat in Colombo last week was the latest drubbing for a once powerful right wing camp that produced a string of leaders from the country’s first prime minister and other presidents, including Dissanayake’s predecessor, President Ranil Wickremesinghe. The UNP received only 488,406 votes last week, or 4.69% of the ballots, an extension of its shrunken voter base that was reflected in last year’s presidential and parliamentary polls.

The NPP had, likewise, continued to make inroads into urban centers in rural Sri Lanka that were once under the sway of the Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna, an ultra-nationalist party that serves as the political machine of the once powerful Rajapaksa political dynasty. The SLPP, whose leaders included former presidents Mahinda Rajapaksa and Gotabaya Rajapaksa, received 954,517 votes, or 9.17%, indicating a slight increase from its rock-bottom humiliation of gaining an average of 350,000 votes, around 3%, in the two elections last year.

According to Colombo University’s Uyangoda, the local government polls affirmed that the SLPP and the UNP are still discredited. “They cannot reinvent themselves very easily,” he said. “It is still hard for them to make inroads into their former strongholds.”

The article appeared in the asia.nikkei