by Shaimin Raja 28 December 2023
In a significant geopolitical move, Maldives’ newly elected president, Mohamed Muizzu, has expediently acted on his campaign promise to reduce India’s military footprint in the archipelago nation. This decision has sparked a wave of speculations about the future of India-China relations in the region and the broader implications for the Indian Ocean’s strategic balance. Firstly, it’s crucial to understand the context. For over a decade, India and China have been entangled in a geopolitical tug-of-war over the Maldives, reminiscent of their jostling in other South Asian countries like Sri Lanka. The stakes are high, with the Maldives strategically positioned along critical sea routes that facilitate the transportation of oil from the Middle East to various parts of Asia.
Under the previous administration led by President Ibrahim Mohamed Solih, which championed an “India First” policy, India’s influence in the Maldives had grown considerably. However, Muizzu’s victory, propelled by his “India Out” campaign, signals a potential paradigm shift. While the number of Indian military personnel he seeks to remove—specifically 77 individuals—may seem minimal in the grand scheme of things, the symbolic gesture is monumental. These personnel have been primarily engaged in maritime surveillance, search and rescue missions, and medical evacuations, providing essential services to the Maldives.
Azim Zahir, an analyst from the University of Western Australia, shed light on the perception versus reality of the Indian military presence during the election. While the optics suggested a significant Indian military presence, the actual number was far fewer. This narrative, however, played into populist sentiments, potentially swaying public opinion against India. China’s growing footprint in the Maldives cannot be understated. From 2013 to 2018, Beijing forged closer ties with Male, culminating in the Maldives joining China’s ambitious Belt and Road Initiative. Among China’s flagship projects is the construction of a $200 million bridge connecting the Maldivian capital, Male, to its international airport. Such infrastructural endeavors signify Beijing’s deepening economic and strategic interests in the region.
Yet, while Muizzu’s pro-China leanings are evident, he’s also keen on maintaining a delicate balance. During his inauguration, he emphasized delineating clear boundaries of independence and sovereignty. Muizzu’s nuanced approach suggests that while he may seek Chinese economic assistance, he won’t necessarily pivot entirely towards Beijing at India’s expense. This balancing act is essential, given the broader geopolitical dynamics. Harsh Pant of the Observer Research Foundation underscores the significance of countries like the Maldives, especially as great power competition intensifies in the Indian Ocean region. The establishment of diplomatic missions by the United States and Australia in Male highlights the growing geostrategic importance of the Maldives, further complicating the regional dynamics.
For India, the challenge lies in recalibrating its approach towards the Maldives. While Muizzu’s administration appears to be tilting towards China, the ground realities might necessitate a more nuanced engagement strategy. New Delhi’s willingness to discuss “workable solutions” regarding the use of its helicopters and aircraft, as evidenced by recent meetings between Muizzu and Indian officials, indicates a pragmatic approach.
However, the larger question remains: How will India navigate its relations with the Maldives moving forward? The “India Out” rhetoric underscores the complexities of the bilateral relationship, necessitating a reassessment of strategic priorities. While India cannot afford to alienate the Maldives, the onus is also on Male to recognize the mutual benefits of a robust partnership with India.
In conclusion, Mohamed Muizzu’s presidency heralds a new chapter in the Maldives’ foreign policy, characterized by a recalibration of its relations with India and a potential pivot towards China. However, the intricacies of geopolitics dictate that Male will need to strike a delicate balance between its strategic interests and regional dynamics. As India and China continue their geopolitical jostling, the Maldives finds itself at the epicenter of a broader struggle for influence, underscoring the complexities of navigating great power competition in the Indian Ocean region.