by Zafar Iqbal Yousafzai 20 January 2022
The relationship between Moscow and Islamabad in the past has never been smooth yet both states have recently entered a new era of their strategic partnership. A strategic shift can be noted while looking at the recent geopolitical developments in the region. Afghanistan is one of the main regional factors that have brought Russia and Pakistan to the same page. Moreover, the US is also a major factor in shaping the Russia-Pakistan relationship.
Moscow and Islamabad seem to converge vis-à-vis stimulating their strategic partnership. Islamabad needs Russia to reduce its dependency on Washington. Islamabad tries to realize Washington that it has other options if its relationship is not good with the latter. Following the US withdrawal from Afghanistan, its relationship is not smooth with Pakistan. It’s a history of US-Pakistan partnership or alliance that ends by lifting relations souring. When the US interest served in the late 1980s by defeating its Cold War rival in Afghanistan, the US in the end put Pressler Amendment in place and Pakistan came under the US sanctions. Though Pakistan played its cards differently in the post-9/11 alliance with the US, the relationship never remained smooth after winding up the US Afghanistan war.
The gap between Pakistan and the United States has provided for closeness between Moscow and Islamabad. Moreover, India-US collaboration is also the main factor that pushes Pakistan closer to Russia. Islamabad needs a new political and strategic partner that could have defense, strategic and economic ties with it. Pakistan is interested in advanced Russian military equipment in addition to technology. It has also signed the North-South gas pipeline that will connect Karachi-Lahore. Similarly, Russia is interested in the CASA-1000 energy project that would provide electricity to Pakistan and Afghanistan. The renovation of the Karachi steel mill by Russia is also under consideration.
On the contrary, Russia needs Pakistan due to its strategic location. Though Russia-Pakistan does not share any border yet the latter is next to Afghanistan and Central Asia. Militancy and extremism in Afghanistan and Central Asia were a prime concern of Russia in the past for which Pakistan was considered a supporter. However, the changing circumstances in the region have cleared Moscow’s concerns. Russia assumes Pakistan is key to putting Afghanistan on the path of stability. A stable Afghanistan and close strategic relations with Islamabad may enable Moscow to play an active role in the Indo-Pacific.
Russia and Pakistan are also quite close in defense cooperation. Russia is providing Mi-35M helicopters to Pakistan. Moreover, Pakistan has gotten 20 Mi-35Ms helicopters as well. Joint military exercises Druzhbha and Aman naval exercises are also an example of Russia-Pakistan’s close defense cooperation in the recent past.
Besides, defense cooperation, there is a vast potential in the field of communication, energy sector, space technology, tourism, and steel production. In order to achieve multiple objectives, there is a shift in Pakistan’s foreign policy vis-à-vis Russia. In the past, there was a gap between Moscow and Islamabad. However, there is a realization now in Pakistan that distant allies and ignoring nearer powers have cost Pakistan economically, politically, and strategically.
At the same time, Pakistan cannot detach itself from the United States for a number of reasons. However, the Russia Pakistan rapprochement is a signal for the United States not to ignore Pakistan’s serious concerns. On the other hand, India is concerned about Russia-Pakistan’s close cooperation. However, Moscow believes close cooperation with Pakistan can bring India and Pakistan towards normalization of their relations. However, any robust defense cooperation between Moscow and Islamabad may affect India-Russia relations.
Russia would not want its relations with India to be affected. India is a larger market for Russian goods and defense sales as compared to Pakistan. Russia would be very cautious while in its defense cooperation with Pakistan. Both states are members of BRICS, SCO, and RIC. Hence, in any case, Russia would not like to take any step that could irritate India.
Nevertheless, Russia has the opportunity at the moment that its interests are converging with that of Pakistan and both can play a positive role in the region especially Afghanistan. The current potential to further Russia-Pakistan cooperation is an opportunity for both countries to build a comprehensive partnership.