If someone used the word ‘isolation’ when referring to Russia’s international status, may be there wouldn’t be much debate. However, with his visits to North Korea and Vietnam, Russian president Vladimir Putin appears to be challenging that narrative with the passing days. Neo-liberal media outlets like the ‘New York Times’ were making headlines such as ‘Putin came to Asia to Disrupt and He Succeeded,’ which clearly indicates worries within the Western ruling establishment. With countries like Saudi Arabia and UAE joining BRICS, along with Thailand and Malaysia in line to become next member states, the concept of Russia’s isolation is becoming more and more debatable.
Even in the West, countries with far-right leaderships like Hungary and Slovakia have taken pro-Putin stances over the recent years. One might say that North Korea might not be a major player when it comes to geopolitics. However, the latest security agreements between Moscow and Pyongyang is certainly giving Western leaders a good headache. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine began in 2022. Although the majority of countries initially condemned the invasion, the passing of time saw shifts in policies – especially for nations in the Middle East and Global South.
During the starting phase of the breakout of the war, economic powerhouses like China and India expressed neutral positions in the UN and maintained good relations with Moscow, despite the United States’ utmost attempts to diplomatically isolate Russia through economic sanctions. The primary obstacle to this economic pressure was India’s purchase of Russian gas at a discount. This came under a lot of criticism from the West, which obviously wants Putin’s war industry to collapse through economic incentives.
New ‘allies’
India’s ‘neutral’ stance in this war – basically not taking any sides, albeit purchasing Russian gas – has, therefore, been received with skepticism. Nonetheless, the truth is that Russia is using its significant oil revenues to finance its war in Ukraine effectively. For now, Western sanctions have failed to curb these efforts. In fact, the reverse is happening as countries are starting to shift away from the petrodollar system and find alternative means of transactions so as to avoid being blackmailed by institutions like the World Bank and IMF.
The sanctions have also caused Russian businessmen to relocate their investments in the gulf countries like UAE and Saudi Arabia. Unlike the Cold War, the Saudi regime enjoys good ties with Putin’s Russia for now. So do the other Gulf monarchies like Bahrain, Qatar and definitely the UAE (which even has military ties with Russia in pursuit of common interests in the African continent, especially in the Sahel region).
Back in the Cold war, the gulf kingdoms financed the Mujahideen in Afghanistan against the invading Soviet forces, and reduced the price of their own oil. The Soviets, having to balance the overwhelming cost of war in Afghanistan, had to naturally resort to increase the price of oil. This also raised inflation in the Soviet Union itself – since raising the oil cap prevented sales of Soviet oil in the world market because of cheap exports from Saudi Arabia that were certainly more purchasable and appealing – that saw discontent among the local population of then many Soviet republics like Ukraine, Latvia, Estonia and so on.
Changes in Scenario
Ultimately, a combination of these factors led to the collapse of the Soviet Union. The Arab Kingdoms were vehemently opposed to the idea of communism itself and actively played a significant role in the collapse of the Soviet Empire. However, that doesn’t seem to be the present day picture. Putin has embraced a capitalist oligarchy in modern Russia which goes in line with the economic policies of the wealthy countries of the Middle East. Which is why, Russia has thus far managed to maintain a stable relation with the Arab League. Members of the Arab League have also stated that their position in the Russo-Ukraine war is that of ‘neutrality’. Besides that, Russia’s strong ties with China and India (second and fourth largest economies in the world) have also prevented major financial setbacks for the country.
In the Cold War, especially during the period of the Soviet-Afghan war, the Chinese vehemently opposed the Soviet invasion and helped the US and Pakistan arm the Mujahideen. So we can see that the overall scenario is quite different in the geopolitical spectrum than what it used to be four decades ago. Unable to subdue the Russians through sanctions, the US will now have to deal with increasing military cooperation between the former and North Korea. US intelligence reported back in 2022 that North Korea supplied millions of artillery shells to Russia in its assault on Ukrainian towns and cities but back then both countries denied such claims. Following the latest meeting on 18th June this year, the Pentagon Press Secretary Pat Ryder even went on to claim that there are chances North Korea might be sending even troops to Ukraine who would then be most likely used as ‘canon fodder’.
Many US officials, however, deny the fact that NATO special troops are themselves operating in Ukrainian territory, helping with advanced weapons operations like directing HIMARS strikes on Russian positions, sending sea drones to harass Russian Black Sea Fleet, operating ATACMS missiles on deep rear of Russian logistics and so on. There have been numerous reports of foreign ‘volunteers’ being killed in this conflict on both sides. Both parties are quick to label these volunteers as ‘mercenaries’. For Ukraine, many of these fighters come from NATO member states while for Russia, people often enlist from Central Asia and even South Asian nations like Nepal and India. Therefore, it wouldn’t be totally surprising if – in the future – we hear news about North Korean personnel being killed on the frontlines in Ukraine, fighting for the Russian side.
Dictators’ Bromance
The latest meeting between the two authoritarian leaders led speculations among senior Western officials that Russia would offer military assistance to help North Korea expand its nuclear programmes, as well as providing the poverty stricken country with much required economic lifeline to counter US sanctions. The Russian Federation had also sent loans in the form of billions of dollars. However, during this year’s June Summit, pledges were made by both sides to initiate trade in alternate currency. Since both of these countries have thousands of US sanctions imposed on them, the move is hardly surprising. It was in the same month – just few days before Putin’s visit – when the leading Russian financial marketplace named ‘Moscow Exchange’ decided to halt trading in Dollars and Euros and make the Chinese Yuan its international trade currency. So we can see that as Russia becomes more isolated from the West, it is being embraced further into China’s arms.
Rueters mentioned how the Yuan constituted about 54% of Russia’s foreign trade in the month of May and, the number is more likely to increase in the coming months. China, therefore, has definitely gained a massive leverage over Russia after the latter’s invasion of Ukraine – providing a haven for Russian economy. Russia, likewise, could be planning to do the same for North Korea. It’s also worth noting that Pyongyang enjoys good ties with Beijing, despite some indifferences incurred between the two sides in 2018. Hence, with two of the superpowers backing it up, Pyongyang can well expand its nuclear programmes that will certainly escalate tensions in the much volatile Korean Peninsula.
It’s also worth noting that Washington and its allies in the Indo-Pacific conduct joint naval exercises in the South China Sea as well as near the Peninsula – moves which both China and North Korea view as ‘provocations’. Recently in July, North Korea expressed its concerns over how the US, Japan and South Korea are gradually building an ‘Asian NATO’. May be this claim can be exploited by Pyongyang as an excuse to increase its nuclear arsenal with the cooperation of Moscow. The German outlet ‘Deutshce Welle’ claims that North Korea is preparing for war with its Southern neighbor and indeed, tensions in that part of the world is now at an unprecedented level since the Korean armistice in 1953.
Increasing Escalation
Russia also vetoed a UNSC resolution in March this year (with China abstaining) regarding the renewal of mandate for ‘Panel of Experts’ to monitor sanctions compliance for North Korea. Despite 13 other members voting in favor of the resolution, Russia’s veto power enabled yet another guarantee for Pyongyang’s investment in nuclear technology. The US also fears Iran striving to reach similar agreements with Moscow to counter threats from Israel. In response to the June summit, South Korea summoned the Russian ambassador and, later went on to warn Moscow about repercussions over maintaining ties with North Korea.
Seoul has threatened to send heavy weapons to Kyiv, in case Moscow escalates its military involvement with Pyongyang. In reality, Seoul already sent shipments of ammunitions to Kyiv through third party countries like Poland and US in 2023, thereby exposing exposing its non-neutrality in the Russo-Ukraine war. With the SCO (Shanghai Cooperation Organization) summit kicking in Astana – that saw Belarus joining in the alliance – and BRICS expanding gradually, the race for a multipolar world order goes on with Russia-China on one hand and NATO-EU on the other hand. It’s evidently becoming more clear, as the days go by, that we are living in an age of new Cold War.