New Delhi: Donald Trump’s White House return is creating ripples in Bangladesh, with exiled former PM Sheikh Hasina coming out of hiding to congratulate the incoming US president. Experts and editorials, however, have shown no alarm or anxiety about the country’s future in the Trump era simply because “Bangladesh is not central to US foreign policy concerns”.
After Trump’s victory against Kamala Harris in the US elections, Hasina congratulated him by referring to herself as the “Prime Minister of Bangladesh”. On the other hand, the caretaker of the interim government in Bangladesh, Muhammad Yunus, extended his “heartfelt felicitations” to Trump, expressing the hope that under his stewardship “the United States will thrive and continue to inspire others around the world”.
The Bangladesh Nationalist Party did not stay far behind them. Tarique Rahman, the acting president of BNP, congratulated Trump, saying, “The people of Bangladesh are eager to move forward with their own free and fair elections and cement our shared commitment to democratic values and fundamental freedoms”.
Experts contend that while the Trump presidency’s impact on Bangladesh may not be immediate or radical, it could bring some changes in bilateral relations, particularly in trade, political dynamics, and Bangladesh’s ties with India or China.
“What level of support Yunus will enjoy would depend on how the relationship between Trump’s administration evolves with Modi’s government. While one could expect a stronger India-US relationship under Trump, it is still unpredictable as there are allegations against India carrying out foreign interference operations on US soil. This matter may get complicated under Trump’s America-first policy. If that happens, Yunus may get breathing space,” Mubashar Hassan, an expert on Bangladeshi politics and the Executive Director of Sydney Policy and Analysis Centre in Australia, told ThePrint.
“Yunus also has a lot of friends in the Republican Party, and they issued statements in support of him during the time of the Hasina regime, so he would need to streamline his engagement with the US,” he said.
The shift in US-Bangladesh relations
Editorials in leading newspapers, such as The Daily Star and Prothom Alo, hoped for better US-Bangladesh relations amid a change of hands, under a lens not influenced by India.
The Daily Star, in its editorial, wrote, “It may be recalled that Trump, before the election, commented on the ‘barbaric violence’ against Hindus, Christians, and other minorities in Bangladesh—a portrayal that is both unfair and unfounded. There is a concern among some that the US may be prompted to view Bangladesh through India’s lens, and we hope such concerns will be duly addressed in the coming days.”
However, as the US shifts its focus to domestic concerns, experts predict that Trump’s ‘America First’ approach might slow any decline in Dhaka-Washington relations. Munshi Faiz Ahmad, former ambassador to the US, noted in an article that Trump’s 2016 presidency shifted focus to domestic issues, such as anti-immigration legislation, with a similar shift expected in his second term.
Since the fall of the Awami League regime, Washington has strongly supported reform efforts in Dhaka. At the same time, relations between Bangladesh and India have somewhat soured, partly due to Hasina’s alliance with India.
Experts agree that Bangladesh has strategic value for the US, especially considering the Trump administration crafted the ‘Indo-Pacific Strategy’ to counter China’s influence. Business communities see a potential boon in Trump’s victory, expecting Western apparel orders and some foreign investments to shift to the country, especially if China faces higher US import tariffs.
“Trump will continue its anti-China policy, including tariffs and other measures,” Faiz told The Daily Star in this context.
In an op-ed for Prothom Alo, M. Humayun Kabir, a former Bangladesh ambassador to the US, said that he does not anticipate major changes in US policy toward Bangladesh.
“In the aftermath of 5 August, the Biden administration had pledged cooperation to help Bangladesh address its economic crisis. I believe the Trump administration would continue this commitment, maintaining the continuity of US-Bangladesh relations,” he said.
Kabir emphasised that, under a Republican administration, particularly Trump’s leadership, the US would likely support Bangladesh’s democratic transition and reform process.
He pointed out that the US has a strategic interest in maintaining stability in Bangladesh, given that instability there could destabilise the broader South Asia region. The US, therefore, expects Bangladesh to uphold both democracy and stability.
From a broader geopolitical perspective, Kabir said that regional and global factors influence US-Bangladesh relations. He said that under Trump, the US would likely want Bangladesh to align with the ‘Indo-Pacific Strategy’ in the backdrop of the ongoing US-China rivalry.
Speaking to ThePrint, Dr Ashikur Rahman, principal economist at the Policy Research Institute of Bangladesh, said, “It is difficult to decisively predict how Donald Trump’s electoral victory will influence trade and economic ties with Bangladesh. At one end, there is a definite possibility that Trump’s overall geopolitical agenda will be to economically contain China through the imposition of tariff-centric trade barriers, which can trigger the relocation of export-oriented economic enterprises from China to Bangladesh. If Bangladesh can take advantage of that phenomenon, exports to the US will receive a new stimulus.”
“On the other end, it is possible but less likely that Trump will impose wholesale trade protection, making it very difficult for countries like Bangladesh, whose one-fourth of export receipts (nearly $10 billion annually) come from the US. So, we have to see what policy priorities dominate the Trump administration,” he said.
source : The Print