Rakhine rebels capture key towns in Myanmar

Potential negotiations were mooted after insurgents captured the west coast town of Gwa at the southernmost tip of Rakhine state, 185 kilometers northwest of Yangon, inflicting a major defeat upon the beleaguered military as 2024 came to an end.

“We always remain open to resolving the current internal issues through political means rather than military solutions,” the AA said in a statement, as its spokesman, Khaing Thukha, said rebels “had taken control of every military base of the terrorist junta in Gwa.”

“Despite the military’s armored vehicles, air and naval support, we seized the town after a two-week offensive. Gwa has become the last town seized in 2024,” he said after insurgents took Ann, Matupi and Kanpetlet earlier in December.

The AA also extended an olive branch to Beijing, praising China for its “active leadership” in promoting stability through negotiations with the Ethnic Armed Organizations (EAOS), saying it was willing to hold political talks at any time.

China has much at stake. Its 771-kilometer oil and gas pipeline dissects Rakhine from its capital Sittwe through to Myanmar’s northern states and its security is behind speculation Beijing was prepared to put boots on the ground through a “joint security company” to be established with the military.

Michael Martin, an adjunct fellow with the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, said China would prefer a scenario where stability is maintained with the military in power to protect its interests.

But Beijing would not try “to save the military if it looks like it’s on the verge of collapse.”

“It seems quite reasonable to speculate that in 2025, the military will be effectively driven out of Rakhine state,” he said. “If the junta falls, they’ll [China] go to plan B and talk to the Arakan Army about how to keep the pipeline working,” he said.

There are also pressing humanitarian needs. The United Nations has warned Rakhine state is at risk of a complete breakdown amid a looming famine and the fall of Gwa could prove crucial, given its status as the gateway to the rice-basket of the Irrawaddy River delta.

Paul Greening, an independent analyst based in Mae Sot on the Thai border, says the junta now controls just 15 percent of Myanmar while the EAOs and the People’s Defence Force (PDF) hold about 45 percent with the balance still being fought over.

That means the military’s widely touted elections for later this year will be discredited along with ASEAN’s roadmap for peace through its five-point consensus which was widely viewed as favoring Hlaing and his attempts to legitimize the conflict and his rule.

That type of thinking is not widely shared. Prosecutors have asked the International Criminal Court (ICC) to issue an arrest warrant for Hlaing in response to the ethnic cleansing of Rohingya Muslims — who claim Rakhine as their home — in 2017.

The AA is just one of 20 EAOs battling the military alongside the PDFs operating under the umbrella of the opposition-in-exile, National Unity Government (NUG).

Greening says the fall of Gwa — including the loss of the junta’s 562nd and 563rd light infantry battalions — was a major step for the AA and its objective of winning full control of Rakhine and Sittwe, where China’s pipeline connects to the Indian Ocean.

“The AA has promised to protect foreign investments. China must be considering changing its stance and engaging in talks with the AA to secure their economic interests,” he said. “Under pressure from China, there may be talks but I don’t think they will achieve much.”

Hlaing insists his ‘door is always open for talks,’ an idiom he has often repeated since ousting the elected government of Aung San Suu Kyi in February 2021, tipping Myanmar into a bloody civil war, which has since claimed more than 52,700 lives.

Of them, according to the Center for Excellence in Disaster Management and Humanitarian Assistance — A US Department of Defense organization — at least 9,140 were civilians, where “the level of violence in Myanmar has remained stubbornly elevated.”

This includes relentless aerial bombardments, massacres, and allegations of rape and torture, which the NUG also wants investigated by ICC prosecutors.

In addition, the war has displaced 3.5 million people, or more than six percent of the total population, with 1.5 million fleeing their homes in 2024, according to the latest UN figures.

“With two million people about to suffer starvation and severe malnutrition, the AA may want to give the people a break with aid as part of the deal,” Greening said in regards to potential talks with Hlaing, the military and perhaps China.

“However, I don’t think the military and AA will be able to agree on terms and any ceasefire will be short-lived. The last ceasefire gave the AA the opportunity to collect and position weapons.”

source : uca news