In June, Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina of Bangladesh visited India twice within twelve days – the first time to attend Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s oath-taking ceremony and second, to take stock of the bilateral relationship. This symbolizes the high priority that India and Bangladesh accord to one another due to their mutual and organic dependence stemming from shared geography, 54 transboundary rivers, adjacent maritime zones in the Bay of Bengal, and socio-cultural and linguistic similarities. Their unbroken tenures and the complementarities in governance between Modi and Hasina have deepened Delhi-Dhaka cooperation in existing areas while expanding to include newer areas of collaboration. With the re-election of both the Hasina and Modi governments this year, continuity will be the hallmark of the bilateral relationship. Sectors that have been at the forefront of their cooperation will continue to remain so, such as connectivity and energy, while environmental concerns such as the risk of natural disasters will also be prioritized.

Connectivity at the Forefront

Connectivity is a crucial domain of cooperation for both governments as it facilitates trade-led economic prosperity, provides pathways for greater people-to-people interaction and cross-country dependencies, and generates mutual goodwill. Bangladesh mports daily essentials from India and depends on its neighbor for medical tourism. For India, Bangladesh is its largest export destination in South Asia and also gives India’s landlocked Northeast territories access to the sea for improved maritime trade opportunities.

Both governments have made efforts to strengthen connectivity between Bangladesh and India’s eastern metropolis of Kolkata, the capital city of West Bengal, through projects like Maitree Express and the more recent Bandhan Express. With ethnic violence finally diminishing in some areas of India’s Northeast due to peace agreements signed between the Indian government and various ethnic groups, attempts to develop connectivity between the Northeast and Bangladesh are finally bearing fruit. Accordingly, in 2021, the Mitali Express was launched to connect Dhaka with New Jalpaiguri in northern West Bengal. In 2023, the Akhaura-Agartala cross-border rail link was also launched, connecting Bangladesh with Tripura. Passenger movement between the two countries is scheduled to start in September 2024 using the Maitree Setu, which connects Sarboom in Tripura with Ramgarh in Bangladesh. In the future, goods will be moved along this line, enhancing India’s usage of Bangladesh’s Port of Chattogram located at a distance of only 50 miles from Sarboom.

Hasina’s offer of the usage of Bangladesh’s Chattogram and Mongla seaports to India for the development of Assam and Tripura is highly coveted, as these ports are closer to the Northeast than India’s Kolkata port. The Northeast also stands to gain from Nepal and Bhutan’s usage of Bangladesh’s seaports for alternative access to overseas trade by being the transit territory for the passage of their cargo. Similarly, Bangladesh also benefits from the development of the Northeast through an increase in cargo for its ports and due to more connectivity with India. Developing the Northeast will thus benefit the region as a whole.

New Delhi and Dhaka are also looking to capitalize on the network of inland waterways that connect the two nations. In 2015, the two countries developed the Protocol Routes for Transit and Trade of inland waterways to promote inter-country connectivity. More routes and ports of call are expected to be included within this framework in the coming years. Discussions are also being held regarding connecting Chattogram with India’s Chennai Port via direct shipping, which will help India’s Northeast  trade better with the rest of the country.

As the political situation in Myanmar remains unstable, analysts are  raising concerns about the usability of the Sittwe Port that India has recently acquired in the Rakhine state to increase trade opportunities for the Northeast. In such circumstances, developing India-Bangladesh port connectivity has become even more important. Moreover, strengthening Indian links with the Chattogram port will also boost its regional networks – talks are ongoing about connecting the Chattogram Port with the Ranong Port in Thailand, which will in effect provide India with another route to Southeast Asia to realize its Act East Policy.

Consistency in Energy Connectivity

Delhi has made significant efforts to help Bangladesh mitigate its energy challenges. In the past few years, Bangladesh has witnessed major power cuts and a national power grid failure. Attributed to the rising demand and shortage of natural gas, the blackouts also resulted in a fall in production by almost 50 percent in Bangladesh’s Ready-Made Garment industry. As a result,, the government of Bangladesh faced substantial public backlash, with protests breaking out on the streets and on social media. However, the opportune timing of the inauguration of two India-Bangladesh joint energy projects helped the Awami League counter the critiques. The India-Bangladesh Friendship Pipeline, launched in 2023, is designed to reduce the cost of diesel supply to Bangladesh and the second unit of the Maitree super thermal power plant in Khulna is expected to boost the country’s power generation capacity.

As the two countries work towards transitioning to renewable energy, cooperation in this sector will expand further especially as a tripartite agreement is underway, by which Nepal will sell hydro-electricity to Bangladesh via the Indian power grid. Consequently, the construction of a 765 kV high-capacity interconnection between Katihar-Parbatipur-Bornagar is being expedited with Indian financial assistance, to anchor this grid connectivity. Under the Indo-Russian deal to undertake atomic energy projects in third countries, India is also helping build the first nuclear power station in Rooppur, Bangladesh.

New Focus on Disaster Management

While connectivity and energy will continue to be the flag-bearers of India-Bangladesh cooperation, disaster management as an area of cooperation will gain traction in the coming years. Both countries share a vulnerability to the Bay of Bengal-induced cyclones, storm surges, and rising sea levels, which threaten the fragile ecosystems of the shared Sundarbans. India is internationally recognized for its prowess in providing Humanitarian Assistance and Disaster Relief (HADR) to regional countries. Bangladesh too comprehends the challenges of climate risks and accords high priority to collaboratively managing this threat in its Indo-Pacific Outlook, launched last year. Accordingly, the two countries have already signed an Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) on Disaster Management in 2021 to benefit from each other’s Disaster Management mechanisms and strengthen disaster preparedness and response capacities.

There is also a provision in the MoU for conducting joint disaster management exercises, but this is yet to be realized. Nonetheless, with Bangladesh agreeing to co-lead the Indo-Pacific Oceans Initiative’s Disaster Risk Reduction and Management pillar with India, this sector is likely to witness substantial growth in the near future. Southern Bangladesh is particularly vulnerable to natural disasters and interestingly, the Bangladesh government has already requested Chinese investments for its development. Nonetheless, there is still scope for India and other interested providers of HADR to help develop disaster-resilient infrastructure in this region.

Need to Address Existing Grievances

The governments of both India and Bangladesh are experiencing the “Shonali Odhyay” or golden chapter in their relations. Yet there are grievances that need to be addressed. Foremost among these is the issue of Teesta water sharing. The Teesta river flowing into northern Bangladesh from West Bengal is a source of livelihood for the agrarian population living in the northern provinces of the country. According to Bangladeshi experts, the dams that India has constructed on its side constrain the flow of water upstream, affecting its discharge into the neighboring country, thus impairing irrigation. The issue remains embroiled in federal complications between the Government of India and the Government of West Bengal, and it has been impossible to reach an international resolution. Recently, however, India has agreed to invest USD $1 billion in Dhaka’s Teesta River Comprehensive Management and Restoration project to help conserve water on Bangladesh’s side of the river. Once implemented, this project is likely to ease the Teesta issue. Though Bangladesh has a similar investment offer from China and thus it remains to be seen how Dhaka balances between New Delhi and Beijing.

Additionally, there have been disagreements between the people of the two countries. This was visible when India implemented the Citizenship Amendment Act in 2019, which was perceived as anti-Muslim by segments of Bangladeshi society. The latest iteration of this were the “India Out” and “Boycott Indian Products” campaigns in Bangladesh. Hence, there is a need to rebuild people-to-people trust through joint initiatives involving the youth in the digital space, to exchange views and cherish their shared heritage.

As the governments in India and Bangladesh begin a fresh term this year, their bilateral relationship, already termed as a ‘model’ for the entire region, is expected to overcome existing roadblocks and improve further. This will not only benefit the two countries but also contribute to greater stability in the Bay of Bengal region. With connectivity, investments, and cross-regional initiatives, the relationship  has the potential to limit the influence of more assertive external powers in the region and be another step towards ensuring a free, open, and prosperous Indo-Pacific.

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