South Asia Journal | Geopolitical | November 2026

It's become clear that military might does not always solve problems between countries. As we've seen with the US-Israel-Iran situation. Despite the enormous destructive capacity of American and Israeli forces, military pressure has not produced the decisive political settlement its advocates anticipated. Iran, meanwhile, has shown it can withstand considerable punishment, but its resistance has come at a devastating economic cost. This raises the question of whether the Arab Monarchies of the Persian Gulf can resolve an issue the two opposing forces have been unable to settle militarily.

A solution exists that would allow both the US and Iran to back down from their current predicament. For this to happen, the GCC countries would need to take on a task other countries have done in the past. The Gulf States have the location, money, and security interests to help create a peaceful resolution. The Strait of Hormuz is central to this conflict. It is the passageway from the Persian Gulf to the Gulf of Oman and the Indian Ocean. Many ships carrying oil and LNG for sale worldwide pass through this strait. If the strait were blockaded, oil prices would rise and could affect the prices of many products, as well as shipping costs. Many Asian countries would be affected, such as India, Bangladesh, Pakistan, Japan, and South Korea.

As mentioned before, the Strait of Hormuz is key when discussing this conflict. Not only economically, but militarily as well. There is no sure-fire way that if one side gains naval dominance, all ships can safely pass through the Strait. A missile attack or another type of weapon could still occur. Fear of an attack could even deter ships from traveling through the strait. Even after a war, many ships may still refuse to travel through the Strait of Hormuz.

According to Foreign Affairs Analysts Allison Minor and Nate Swanson, diplomacy may offer a viable option. By offering Iran economic aid or rebuilding support, they can reopen the Strait of Hormuz to ships and stop attacks on other ships. America can then lift its blockade of sea travel without offering money to Iran. This would allow both sides to walk away saying that they didn't move off of their original demands.

This could work politically because pride is something we all want to keep. If America were to offer Iran something after going to war with them, they would take heavy fire at home. Iran would have people who wouldn't want to accept a deal that looked as though they gave in to American threats. Having the Gulf states step in could help clear those hurdles. They can open the Strait of Hormuz back up to ships and leave other issues like nuclear programs and threats to other countries to be discussed at another time.

Many different countries make up the Gulf Monarchies. Some have more economic power than others and want different things. Qatar can speak for itself, and Oman likes to speak with countries and negotiate behind closed doors. Kuwait and Bahrain each have different fears and dependencies. So, they may not agree to work together to make this happen.

All Gulf Monarchies have spent large amounts of money to create other ways to make money besides oil. They are building businesses and attracting tourists. More and more countries are looking to invest in the Middle East. If the region remains militarily unstable, it will hinder these efforts. Even if you have another way to get your oil out of the country, it won't help you if there are missiles flying through the strait.

Another condition that could make a deal possible is providing adequate security measures. Iran's leaders will want some assurance that once they reach a deal with their enemies, there will be no further conflict in the near future. Gulf countries can also pressure America over how it conducts military action in the region. They can limit access to US bases and facilities, as well as country airspace. However, this could backfire because those countries also rely on the United States for protection.

Iran will continue to have issues regarding its nuclear program. A deal at sea would not solve any of the issues surrounding uranium, inspections, and possible weapons creation down the line. It would also not deter Israel from worrying about Iran having a more powerful army and expanding their territory. So, a truce between countries in the Middle East should be seen as a step toward peace, not an end-all solution.

Many non-state actors could shape a Middle East peace deal. Militant groups based in Yemen and Iraq can act autonomously, which would prevent a deal from taking place even if Iran agrees to it. The Houthis will also need to be considered when trying to establish a deal. Because of the attacks they can inflict on Saudi Arabia and the Red Sea, there could always be tension. Therefore, a country must have steps in place if it breaks the agreement.

As one can see, diplomacy still has plenty of room to play a role in this situation. There have been reports since early November that Qatar is allowing American-Iranian talks to continue while the US ponders additional strikes on Iran. On November 8th, President Donald Trump stated he did not foresee any more strikes on Iran if an adequate deal could be reached. However, many issues still need to be worked out, such as sanctions, limits on nuclear technology, and security measures.

These circumstances also offer opportunities to pursue diplomacy.

If Pakistan and Turkey kept the line open with Iran and other countries that want to be involved, they could help facilitate a deal. Since China is a major buyer of Gulf oil, it would also want the waterways open. Other trading countries in Europe and Asia would want this too. If the talks become too broad, they could hinder the current talks. The Gulf countries should take the initiative and seek outside help if needed.

Any maritime agreement should allow for freedom of travel through the strait. No single country should control the Strait of Hormuz at all times. Temporary agreements may help build trust, but they should not lead to control of ship traffic or be used as an example in other parts of the world.

Gulf countries must decide. They can continue to rely on others for protection, or take control of their own security. This will not come without financial and diplomatic costs. It could allow them to gain more control over their region.

One irony about this war with Iran is that the countries that stand to lose the most economically from it may be able to end it sooner than we think. By allowing a ceasefire through the Gulf, we could open up waterways. We could reduce the imminent threat of violence and start talking about what really caused this situation. There may never be a day that all of these problems are resolved. But we could at least take a step in the right direction.