United States is ready to “go forward with a full, large-scale assault of Iran, on a moment’s notice” if no acceptable deal was reached with it, according to President Donald Trump. US was just an hour away from resumption of the war, which has been delayed at the request of several Arab countries, including Saudi Arabia, UAE and Qatar, Trump stated. What can one understand from such statements of Trump giving some importance to diplomacy without dismissing prospects of resuming war with Iran? Israel, as is well known, is all for resumption of the war. However, this stand has been apparently rejected by Trump. He and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, reportedly disagreed, in a recent phone conversation on what should be next steps towards Iran. The exchange has been described as a “difficult” one and “Bibi’s hair was on fire after the call.”
Trump has probably become a little wiser after having yielded twice to Netanyahu’s decision to go for war against Iran. During the 12-day war in June, initially, Israel probably desired to test its own strength against Iran. US jumped in later and also decided to call off the war when 12 days didn’t seem sufficient to dismantle Iran as desired by Washington and Tel Aviv. Negotiations between US and Iran were taking place then. Negotiations were being given importance by both sides (US and Iran), when US together with Israel chose to start strikes against Iran on Feb 28. Iran showed no sign of yielding and Trump was forced to call for ceasefire on April 8. Initially, it was called for two weeks but later extended and is in effect at present till no knowing as to when. It shall cease to exist, as Trump’s comments suggest, if and when he chooses to resume strikes against Iran. As of now, he has chosen to give diplomacy a chance.
However, against the backdrop of limited importance actually given by Trump to negotiations with Iran in the past, it is perhaps not without reason that latter has chosen to exercise a more assertive approach. This includes its demand for a permanent halt in strikes against Iran. Its recent experience of negotiations with US clearly suggests that there is no knowing as to when this diplomatic option may be abandoned by Trump in favor of bombing Iran. Now, the question is whether Trump is really giving any importance to this stand of Iran? Display of his aggressive approach is hardly suggestive of this.
But then there are other angles to Trump’s present approach, which probably need to be given at least some importance. One is, as suggested by his telephonic conversation with Netanyahu, his decision not to be guided only or primarily by what he says. Besides, his decision to take note of several Gulf countries’ stand regarding resumption of strikes against Iran certainly has some credibility. At least, it does seem to, as he has chosen to go by their request of not resuming the strikes against Iran.
Interestingly, US did not seek advice of other countries prior to initiating the Feb 28 strikes. These include among others- Gulf and European countries. This stand of his was hardly welcomed by these countries and the world at large. They chose not to join US in its strikes against Iran. The situation is very much the same at present. The economic havoc spelt by the Iran-war has hardly pleased other countries as well as Americans. Both Trump and Netanyahu probably expected Iran to collapse before their power within a few days. This is least likely to happen for most probably a few more months. Trump apparently expected Iran to at least face protest of its citizens. However, Iranians appear to be showing an united stand against US and Israel.
It may be noted, United States’ failure to take other nations’ opinion/advise prior to its Feb 28 strikes angered them considerably. The Gulf countries certainly didn’t welcome being isolated in their own region with respect to what US chose its bases there for. The situation was complicated because of US being aligned with Israel. The Islamic countries couldn’t afford to align with US as it would mean aligning with Israel even if the strikes were against Iran. It is possible, not keen to commit the same diplomatic mistake, this time US has chosen to take several Gulf nations’ opinion prior to considering strikes against Iran. Thus, US officials recently spoke to leaders of Saudi Arabia, UAE and Qatar who expressed preference for a diplomatic solution. The Gulf nations have also restricted US use of military bases and airspaces in their country. They also drew attention to this being Haj season, when thousands of Muslims travel to Saudi Arabia for pilgrimage. Interestingly, they seem to have adopted an “united” approach towards United States. Clearly, the US-Israel war against Iran has proved to be fairly expensive for them and they don’t want to suffer more because of its resumption.
It is also possible, Trump deliberately chose the option of taking Gulf nations’ opinion to actually delay the Iran-strikes. In essence, he is not in favor of resumption of the war which is strongly suggested by nature of his recent telephonic conversation with Netanyahu. Opposition of Gulf countries was probably expected. But to add greater diplomatic credence to it, US chose to seek their opinion, following which Trump voiced his stand on having put off the strikes on their “request.”
If US was keen on continuation of the war, Trump may have never chosen to announce the ceasefire. Nor would any importance have been accorded to role being played by Pakistan as a mediator. This also implies that US and Iran appear to be long way off from giving importance to bilateral diplomacy. Basically, US and Iran cannot be expected to reach any agreement soon on numerous issues they differ on, whether it is Strait of Hormuz, uranium enrichment policy, lifting of sanctions and so forth. But if they choose to exercise some restraint and give greater importance to their fragile ceasefire, it does stand suggestive of at least some importance being accorded to not returning to war-like stage. Diplomatically, perhaps, this is the best both sides can expect of each other at least for now!
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