Ironically, just when US President Donald Trump seemed “confident” about diplomatic strategies towards Iran having the right impact, at least as he desired, Iran’s move has delivered a different message. Saturday began with Iran’s decision to open Strait of Hormuz. Trump was apparently pleased about it as United States’ naval blockade of Hormuz continued. But before Saturday ended, Iran announced closure of Strait of Hormuz till US lifts blockade of its ports. Earlier, Trump was also confident of holding next round of talks with Iran within a few days in Islamabad, Pakistan. There were initial reports of their likely to be held over the weekend, then on Monday, but this scenario also appears to have changed. On Saturday, Iran refused to agree to any date for further negotiations till the two sides agree to a “shared framework.” “Until we agree on the framework, we cannot set the date,” said Iran’s Deputy Foreign Minister, Saeed Khatibzadeh. What does this suggest?
Khatibzadeh also specified that Iran will not be subject to “maximalist approach by the other side.” “Iran would not accept to be an exception from the international law. Anything that we are going to be committed will be within the international regulations and international law,” he stated. Clearly, Iran has not accepted US blockade of its naval ports as well as its underlined threat to resume the war. In other words, Trump should not expect Iran to easily yield to whatever he desires. Chances of Iran going by what he says may be viewed as practically non-existent. It has repeatedly been pointed out that Iran’s decision to trust and hold talks with US has been broken twice. How can it be expected to trust any other offer of US without being extra-cautious about it being only dragged into any other round of conflict? This points to emphasis being laid by Iran on their being permanent guarantee of no attack against it in future. Iran does not expect US to assume that the former will yield to whatever Trump decides. This explains its demand for their agreement on a framework prior to resuming the negotiations.
Iran has apparently been compelled to give importance to the preceding point in context of claims made by Trump earlier in the week. Trump had claimed that Iran had agreed to stop enriching uranium and was willing to transfer the enriched uranium to US. The Strait of Hormuz would not be closed again, Trump said, even though naval blockade of Iran’s ports continued. Trump also said Iran would not receive billions of its frozen assets abroad because of US sanctions. In addition, the 10-day ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon was not related to Iran, Trump said.
Claims made by Trump had not been officially confirmed by Iran. Not surprisingly, soon after these hit media headlines, Iran was compelled to take strong action expressing its opposition to the same. It seems Trump made the claims under the assumption that Iran had no option but to either remain silent or express its approval of the same. Paradoxically, little or practically no consideration was given to Iran opposing the same and that too aggressively. This is clearly suggested by Iran’s decision to close the Strait of Hormuz again as well as express the terms for resumption of talks with US.
With just a few days left for the two-week ceasefire to end, speculations have certainly begun being voiced on whether the new US-Iran tension would lead to its extension or not. While making his claims, Trump apparently gave importance to only commanding position of US as a superpower and little to the degree the same was respected by other, including weaker powers. Certainly, Iran is a much weaker power than US, is no match for the latter. But the ground reality of Iran easily being compelled to what US desires doesn’t prevail. Simply speaking, Trump needs to give serious consideration to US options against that of Iran. Ironically, little importance has been given by US to options chosen by Iran. In other words, Iran appears to have no intention of easily yielding to what US has desired and expressed. Instead, as evident, Iran has pronounced its fairly stern opposition to stand expressed by US. Iran has no intention of yielding to what the US desires. If this was really the case, Iran would not have been compelled to continue the war with US and Israel till Trump called for the two-week ceasefire.
Trump apparently is not keen to continue the war but at the same time appears to have given little importance to what the stand of Iran really is. Prospects of both countries easily yielding to what the other demands may be viewed as good as non-existent. In this context, perhaps, greater importance needs to be given to several rounds of talks prior to expecting either and/or both to easily reach an agreement. In fact, they may not reach any agreement but may at least start giving serious importance to terms they can agree upon. In essence, the question of Iran easily and/or instantly accepting what Trump desires doesn’t exist. It should not be expected to exist. But then if both countries are seriously considering options of ceasefire’s extension, end of war and so forth, both need to agree to the same and then deliberate upon the possible conditions both can agree to. It may be said that a 40-day war cannot actually be expected to cease by just a few rounds of negotiations. Even their agreement to hold negotiations/talks may be considered a major diplomatic step forward, irrespective of whether constructive talks are held or not. Simply speaking, expecting roughly a 40-day-war to be marked instantly by “constructive” talks would be in all probability equivalent to beating around the bush, particularly if the same is marked by Trump being over-optimistic about his claims and Iran’s response. In fact, this is what recent phase appears to have been marked by, which is suggested by Iran’s closure of Strait of Hormuz and expression of strong reservation regarding resumption of talks. Trump is entitled to his claims but without giving due importance to stand of the other involved party, the same have little diplomatic relevance!
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