As China has become a world power, its naval capability has grown substantially over the past few decades. China has ships across the world's oceans, and the One Belt One Road project extends into other continents. However, more ships do not automatically mean more naval power. Many factors matter, including landmass and geography. Having ships spread across the world helps China, but its geography still limits it.

As mentioned above, geography plays a big role in China's military. Although it has a long stretch of coastal border, it must pass through many island chains. These include Japan, Taiwan, and the Philippines. These are known as the "First Island Chain". The United States also occupies the second and third island chains. So, while China can continue to build ships and expand its navy. Its geographic location puts it at a disadvantage.

The US, however, faces an entirely different situation. It borders the Atlantic and Pacific and has built relationships and security networks around the world for many years. So it doesn't rely only on its aircraft carriers, subs, and destroyers. They also rely on ports and networks around the world that let them project power. China is beginning to build this out, but it doesn't yet have anything comparable to what the US has. This will come into play when at war if your ship needs fuel or ammo or parts or information, etc. That's thousands of miles away from your home port.

As we have seen, this also applies to China. As a great trading nation, China relies on sea lines of communication. They must pass through many choke points to get oil and other key resources to their ever-growing industrial base. From the Strait of Malacca to the Persian Gulf, and between the Indian Ocean and the South China Sea. In times of war, these lines can become choke points as well.

History has shown you don't need a massive navy to control smaller bodies of water. Submarines, mines, and even coast-to-coast missile systems can make these waters very hostile. The smaller countries can make these areas extremely difficult for a superior force. Again, you can have a large navy, but that doesn't mean you have freedom of navigation.

Nowhere is this dilemma more consequential than Taiwan. Beijing regards Taiwan as part of China and has never renounced the use of force to achieve unification. Yet crossing the Taiwan Strait and successfully occupying a heavily defended island would represent one of the most demanding military operations imaginable. It would require not merely naval superiority but enormous amphibious capacity, sustained logistical support, air superiority, and the ability to prevent outside intervention.

It could also damage China politically. An attack on Taiwan may create the coalition of countries it is trying to avoid. Japan, Australia, the Philippines, and maybe others would likely form closer ties with America. Other countries that have tried to remain neutral between China and America may be forced to choose a side. What was supposed to show off China's power could have the opposite effect by uniting these countries against China's borders. This article correctly notes that while geography won't force this scenario, it can play a major role in how much damage it does to a country and what decisions its political figures must make.

China has attempted to reduce some of these vulnerabilities through the Belt and Road Initiative. Railways, highways, pipelines and ports stretching across Central and South Asia offer alternative channels for commerce and influence. But continental routes create their own difficulties. They cross numerous borders, politically unstable territories, and regions susceptible to insurgency or interstate rivalry. BRI can supplement maritime commerce, but it cannot easily replace the efficiency and enormous carrying capacity of global shipping.

Both China and the US also need to consider the trust factor. Power doesn't only come from your ability to project force. You need states that want you on their soil. Citizens who are ok with you being there. And allies that feel they benefit from working with you. The US took years to build its presence around the world. It did so by forming alliances, helping countries develop, giving them security assurances, and establishing international institutions. If the US starts to pull back from these countries or uses its alliances as business deals, it could slowly lose much of that. China will not be able to take advantage of that power loss. Money can buy ports, but true allies take a little more time to develop.

So don't expect China to dominate the seas, or the US to keep an overpowering force at sea. Money, innovation, and politics may play just as big a role as the number of ships. China has made great strides with its Navy and changed the equation, especially in East Asia. But geography is still geography.  Many waterways can help China when times are good, but they can hold it back if war breaks out.

Much like with any country, you have to understand your surroundings. Geography won't control your destiny, but it's hard to ignore it. Alliances can allow you to overcome obstacles. Politics can open ports that may seem closed off on a map. Money can keep your military strong and allow you to reach further. If you don't play politics right, you can lose those same advantages.

China will need to find ways to gain more friends if it wants to succeed in controlling the oceans. Building more ships is easy.  Making allies is hard.  The United States will need to keep its friends happy if it wants to maintain its position at sea. Perhaps it's what floats in the Pacific that will decide who has more influence on the oceans. Or maybe it's which country can get more states to believe that they should let them in.