Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi is scheduled to be in Japan on August 29 and 30 to participate in the 15th India-Japan annual summit. This will be his eighth visit to Japan as Prime Minister. He will then head for Tianjin, China to attend the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) Summit. This will be his first visit to China in seven years. Questions are certainly being posed as to whether United States’ President Donald Trump’s tariff-war against India has compelled it to consider improving its ties with China. Trump’s threat of imposing additional 25% tariff against India, if it continues to buy oil from Russia, will increase total tariff on Indian imports to US by 50%. As per Trump’s threat, it will come into effect in the coming week, that is on August 27.
Paradoxically, the recently Alaska-summit displayed extraordinary “friendliness” between Trump and his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin, which stunned-even shocked- most countries, especially United States’ European allies. From this angle, it seems strange that Trump is targeting close allies of Russia, particularly India, with his tariff-war. India is among the countries most severely affected by it. If his intention of Alaska-summit and tariff-war seems directed towards attracting Russian allies and even Russia to his camp, then perhaps, till date, this objective hasn’t been achieved. Clearly Russia and India haven’t failed to consider this possible strategy of Trump. Soon after Alaska-summit, Putin updated his close allies, including India of his talks with Trump at Alaska. He held a talk with Modi on phone. Russia has also asked India to continue buying oil from it. In addition, Russia is understood to be considering expansion of nuclear cooperation with India. Option of a trilateral meeting between Russia, China and India is also being considered. Clearly, Putin is not keen to lose his allies or be his camp weaken by whatever is the strategy tried by other powers. Not surprisingly, a trilateral meeting of Russia, China and India is on the cards.
Undeniably, India’s ties with China were not very cordial in the recent past. However, now both countries appear to be giving greater importance to improve their relations. This year has been marked by the two countries increasing their official visits. During Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi’s recent visit to India, they agreed to resume direct flights, which have been stopped since 2020, and increase trade ties. Modi’s visit to China may give it greater boost. During his meeting with Wang, Modi expressed that “steady progress” was being made in improving India’s bilateral ties with China. “India-China relations have made steady progress guided by respect for each other’s interests and sensitivities,” Modi said in a post on social media. He also noted, “Stable, predictable, constructive ties between India and China will contribute significantly to regional as well as global peace and prosperity.” Diplomatic relevance of Modi expressing his opinion about “steady progress” in India’s ties with China cannot be missed. It is possible, at present, India does not want to backtrack on this front. And is also serious about not weakening its position in the Russian camp.
The forthcoming SCO summit may also be expected to display serious efforts being made to promote regional cooperation as well improve bilateral ties between China and India. During his Delhi visit, Wang expressed that China “attaches great importance” to Modi’s visit to participate in SCO summit. He also stated, “History and reality prove once again that a healthy and stable China-India relationship serves the fundamental and long-term interests of both our countries.”
There is little doubt that Trump’s tariff-war against India appears to have prompted Russia to start giving greater importance to further strengthening ties of its allies, including India and China. Undeniably, China appears to be leaving nothing to chance. Recently, Chinese Ambassador to India Xu Feihong said that China is attaching great importance to Modi’s visit. “The visit of Prime Minister Modi to China will be a very important event not only for the SCO but for the bilateral relationship between the two countries. A working group from China and India is preparing to make this visit a successful one. We attach great importance to this visit,” he said.
The SCO summit, chaired by Chinese President Xi Jinping, is expected to be attended by leaders of more than 20 countries. These include Russian President Putin, U.N. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres and leaders from Pakistan, Iran Belarus, Armenia, Malaysia, Nepal, Türkiye, Egypt apart from other countries.
Against the backdrop of India moving closer towards improving its China and showing no chance of weakening its relations with Russia, prospects of it yielding to Trump’s demand of buying oil from US and not from Russia may be viewed as extremely limited. This is also suggested by Indian External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar describing US decision to impose additional tariff on Indian goods for purchasing Russian oil as “unjustified and unreasonable” (August 23).
Meanwhile, United States’ tariff-war has not spared postal services too. The Indian postal department has announced a temporary suspension of all postal services to US from August 25, except letters/documents and gift items up to USD100 in value. These exempted categories will continue to be accepted and conveyed to the USA, subject to further clarifications from CBP and USPS. This is because of an order issued by US Administration on July 30th, under which duty-free de minimis exemption for goods valued up to USD 800 will be withdrawn with effect from August 29th.
Certainly, there is no clarity at present on what turn can relations between India and United States take in the coming days. But yes, for the moment, apparently, India doesn’t appear inclined to stop buying Russian oil to please Trump. It is seriously considering options of improving its ties with China and strengthening its position in the Russian camp!