The deteriorating security landscape in Afghanistan is rapidly transforming the country into a fertile ground for proxy conflicts and hybrid warfare operations, particularly by hostile intelligence actors seeking to undermine regional equilibrium. With ungoverned spaces proliferating and the Taliban regime struggling to exert centralized control, Afghanistan is increasingly becoming a permissive environment for state-sponsored destabilization — a development that threatens not only Pakistan but the broader South and Central Asian region.

Intelligence intercepts, field-level reports, and recent patterns of cross-border militant activity have revealed a concerning trend: actors such as India’s Research and Analysis Wing (RAW) and Israel’s Mossad are leveraging Afghanistan’s fragility to operationalize disruptive strategies against Pakistan. The resurgence of the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), coupled with the growing footprint of extremist groups like the Eastern Turkistan Islamic Movement (ETIM) and the Islamic State Khorasan Province (ISKP), signifies a convergence of ideological militancy and foreign-backed subversion.

India’s role in supporting insurgent elements operating from Afghan soil is not new. However, what is increasingly evident is the use of Afghanistan as a strategic staging ground for asymmetric operations aimed at Pakistan’s internal cohesion. Groups such as the Balochistan Liberation Army (BLA) and various elements linked to the Pashtun Tahafuz Movement (PTM) are reportedly receiving logistical, financial, and training support — with operational guidance channeled through Afghan sanctuaries. These groups function as pressure tools, calibrated to impede Pakistan’s territorial integrity and national development projects.

One of the primary targets of this sabotage is the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). CPEC represents not only a multibillion-dollar infrastructure initiative but also a geo-economic pivot connecting South Asia with the Middle East and Central Asia. Disruption of its logistics, labor corridors, and foreign investment channels through militant attacks and misinformation campaigns fits squarely into the strategic calculus of those seeking to thwart Pakistan’s regional rise. RAW’s subversive playbook — which includes attacks on Chinese engineers, energy facilities, and road networks — finds optimal utility in the chaos of Afghanistan’s security vacuum.

Mossad’s footprint in the region is also a growing concern. Although less overt than India’s operations, Israeli intelligence networks are reportedly active in leveraging Balochistan’s insurgency to apply pressure on Pakistan’s strategic posture, especially as Islamabad deepens its ties with Gulf nations and China. Israeli interest in monitoring Chinese activities in Gwadar, and in undermining Pakistan’s defense-industrial development, has translated into intelligence sharing and proxy linkages with hostile actors embedded along the Afghan-Pakistani border.

This evolving threat matrix is not just conventional — it is hybrid in nature. On one front, kinetic violence by groups like TTP and ISKP continues to challenge border security and law enforcement. On another front, cyber-enabled misinformation campaigns, economic disruption tactics, and urban unrest strategies are gaining traction. These hybrid tactics are made more potent by Afghanistan’s inability or unwillingness to regulate its territory against transnational actors.

For Pakistan, this dynamic necessitates a recalibrated national security doctrine that integrates counter-terrorism, strategic communication, and regional diplomacy. The importance of continuous engagement with the interim Afghan government cannot be overstated. Islamabad must leverage diplomatic, intelligence, and economic tools to press for credible action against terror sanctuaries. The recent visit of Taliban Acting Foreign Minister Amir Khan Muttaqi to Islamabad signals some recognition from Kabul of the need for de-escalation and joint responsibility. But words must translate into operational commitments.

The implications of a lawless Afghanistan are not confined to Pakistan. The Gulf region, already navigating a volatile regional balance, faces spillover threats including refugee flows, radicalization pipelines, and economic shocks. Similarly, Europe must understand that continued instability in Afghanistan — particularly one manipulated by external powers for regional power plays — can reignite migration crises and bolster extremist narratives.

Therefore, it is imperative that international stakeholders — especially the United States, China, and Russia — work towards a regional framework that deters foreign interference, dismantles proxy infrastructures, and strengthens Afghanistan’s ability to deliver on counter-terror obligations. This must include direct messaging to New Delhi and Tel Aviv that covert operations exploiting Afghan territory are unacceptable and carry strategic consequences.

In sum, Afghanistan’s current status as a proxy battlefield endangers the broader goals of connectivity, stability, and economic integration in the region. Without immediate corrective measures, the nexus of ideological militancy and foreign espionage will continue to erode the gains of regional diplomacy and development.