Cozy Modi-Putin photos make Europe squirm and look away

PARIS — Cordial relations between India and Russia are nothing new, but the affectionate handholding between Narendra Modi and Vladimir Putin in China earlier this week has raised questions about Europe’s efforts to draw New Delhi into its embrace and away from Moscow.

The Indian prime minister met the Russian president on Monday during the Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit in Tianjin. In scenes widely reported, the two held hands and joined Chinese President Xi Jinping in a tight circle where they chatted for a while.

Modi is known to have a close relationship with French President Emmanuel Macron and the two have hosted each other in state visits, posing chummily for the press. French efforts to sell arms including fighter jets to India are widely viewed as attempts to draw India closer to the European Union and diversify away from Russia, which has been frozen out since its invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen also visited Delhi earlier this year to hold talks with Modi.

On Tuesday, French officials were quick to brush off any implications for Europe of closer ties between Modi and Putin.

“Modi is going to Beijing for a Chinese ceremony,” a French presidency spokesperson told media, and “not to take a stand against Ukraine … Let’s not confuse everything.”

France and the U.K. hosted a meeting in Paris on Thursday, attended by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, gathering a coalition of around 30 volunteer countries, including Japan and Australia, to ramp up support and implement security guarantees to deter any Russian encroachment on Europe’s Eastern flank.

European capitals are increasingly frustrated with Moscow, whose recent missile strikes on Kyiv damaged buildings belonging to the British Council and the European delegation. Russia is also accused of sabotaging a plane carrying von der Leyen on Aug. 31 in Bulgaria.

French President Emmanuel Macron welcomes Modi to the Elysee Palace in February. France is India’s closest ally in Europe and the two leaders have held state visits for each other.   © Reuters

Some have said that Europe may be suffering collateral damage from U.S. President Donald Trump’s plan of slapping a 50% tariff on Indian imports to punish the country for buying Russian oil.

That action has pushed India to “reaffirm its closeness to Moscow,” said Sylvia Malinbaum, head of India and South Asia research at the French Institute of International Relations.

This puts Europe in an uncomfortable position.

“Trump’s tariffs on India present a challenging situation to India-Europe ties,” but also opportunities, explained Aleksei Zakharov, expert in Russia-India relations at Observer Research Foundation, a Delhi-based think tank.

While the optics were about the Modi-Putin-Xi warmth, Trump’s tariff actions were really the unspoken focus for those leaders. Zakharov said that Washington’s move could make New Delhi “more inclined to open up new markets,” which could benefit European countries.

Malinbaum was also optimistic for Europe, saying, “The trade war triggered by Trump is more of an opportunity to strengthen ties between the EU and India, as both are suffering from U.S. trade tensions.”

India and the EU have been discussing a trade agreement for nearly two decades, and leaders expect a deal by the end of the year.

“India is very high on the European agenda,” said Alicia Garcia-Herrero, chief economist for Asia-Pacific at Natixis. “Europe is running out of options” in terms of accessing markets, given its tumultuous relationship with China.

Analysts agree that Europe will be circumspect about India’s relationships with China and Russia.

“If India is entangled in the EU’s measures against the Russian economy, this could pose an additional challenge,” Zakharov said, but he also emphasized that “so far, the EU has proceeded with caution.”

Brussels will be debating a new sanction package this month against Russia that may take into account circumvention strategies employed by countries, like India, that could undermine the West’s attempt at weakening Putin’s war effort.

For now, Paris is keeping its powder dry, with the French presidency spokesperson describing the Modi-Putin rapprochement as “quite consistent.”

Zakharov added that France has “always been one of India’s most tactful partners in Europe, avoiding comments and accusations on sensitive matters. This has insulated the relationship … It may still be important to have actors like India who can bridge the communication gap between Europe and Russia.”

The article appeared in asia.nikkei