Kashmir’s double burden: Climate change and conflict

LEONI CONNAH

This month, flash floods hit the Himalayas once again, particularly affecting Pakistan and India. Kashmiris are among those affected, adding another crisis to an already strife-torn region.

Climate-related disasters rarely make international headlines unless occurring in “Western” nations. When they do, they are usually labelled as unavoidable and a “natural” disaster. But how individual countries cope with disasters varies significantly, depending on pre-existing vulnerabilities before the disaster occurs.

Floods have become a recurring issue for Pakistan and India over the past two decades. The latest floods have proven similarly destructive, though differing in both intensity and scope.

Recent events have also underscored the compounding effects of climate change.

Labelling it as an unavoidable disaster, and giving it little attention in the international media, prevents consideration of what governments can do to help prepare for these situations. Normalising climate-related disasters only relieves the pressure on countries that are most responsible for contributing to climate change from altering their behaviours.

What sets recent floods in South Asia apart is also the human cost amid ongoing crises – such as economic instability, political tensions, and displacement due to other climate-related events.

Analysts recognise that “the Kashmir Valley is one of the most flood hazard-prone Himalayan regions”. 2014 saw the worst flood in Kashmir in 100 years. The 2014 flood in Kashmir caused great damage to agriculture, trade, infrastructure, tourism and other industries, and was a wake-up call for regional governments. The recent floods reveal that many of the systemic issues remain unaddressed, and adaptation measures have lagged behind the accelerating pace of environmental change.

Despite having experienced a similar disaster before, no matter how prepared an area might be for disasters, the challenges become exponentially more complex when the affected area is caught in the crosshairs of a geopolitical conflict. This is the unfortunate reality for Kashmir, a region claimed in its entirety by both India and Pakistan.

Geopolitical context is important because there is a question about how Kashmiris will receive support on both sides of the Line of Control (LoC), the line that separates Indian Administered Kashmir (IAK) and Pakistan Administered Kashmir (PAK). The disputed status of Kashmir often complicates aid distribution, search and rescue coordination, and long-term resilience planning. Political mistrust, security restrictions, and heightened tensions further hinder timely response efforts.

No one is immune from climate-related disasters and areas that are impacted by pre-existing vulnerabilities are likely to suffer more.

One critical question is whether India’s historically paternalistic approach toward Kashmir will allow for a response rooted in community resilience and demilitarisation, rather than one dominated by centralised control. On the Indian side of Kashmir, there are at least 60 people reported killed and more than 200 still missing. In addition to the tragic loss of life, vital infrastructure has been severely damaged including roads, bridges, and communication lines. This isolates many communities from receiving support which is hugely detrimental for villages where homes have collapsed or been swept away, agricultural lands swamped, and many families displaced. Life is already difficult on the Indian side with prevalent human rights abuses in recent years, as well as a changing political landscape under Narendra Modi’s BJP.

Meanwhile, on the Pakistan side, the latest floods have left at least nine people dead in Kashmir, with similar disruptions to everyday life. In the past, Pakistan’s response has followed a Post-Disaster Needs Assessment (PDNA) strategy, a strategy praised for its clear priorities centred around rebuilding livelihoods, agriculture, and public infrastructure. However, this time it seems access to clean water is another pressing issue, as well as limited medical services.

Kashmir is already one of the most heavily militarised areas in the world; for many residents, the arrival of more boots on the ground in the name of aid may not offer comfort, but further intensify their fears. The region has experienced communications blackouts, increased surveillance, and a stronger military presence. In this context, the prospect of army or police-led rescue and relief operations is fraught with unease.

No one is immune from climate-related disasters and areas that are impacted by pre-existing vulnerabilities are likely to suffer more. In this case, it is Kashmir. This combination of ecological vulnerability and political instability makes the road to recovery in Kashmir more than a humanitarian issue but a deeply entangled political and environmental crisis. Attention should be paid to how climate disasters are handled by both India and Pakistan and also to keep in focus Kashmiris who remain a geopolitical target. In Kashmir, climate change is not just an environmental issue – it’s a political one. The need for an inclusive, community-based approach has never been more urgent.

The article appeared in lowyinstitute