On August 5, 2024, a student led mass uprising ended Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina and her Awami League government’s decade and a half long despotic rule in Bangladesh. Hasina fled to India.
Hasina’s fall was also a big blow to India, her staunchest and the most opportunistic ally. Many thus believe that without India’s (read Modi’s) backing – political and security – Hasina would not have lasted as long as she did. In return, Delhi extracted from Hasina vital security and economic concessions which according to Hasina’s own admission, “What I have given, India will remember for the rest of its life.”
Many in Bangladesh thus argue that Sheik Hasina secured her and her party’s grip on power, by “selling the country to India.”
It’s all gone now. Hasina has fallen and 84-year Nobel Laureate Prof. Muhammad Yunus has replaced Hasina as the head of an Interim Government (IG) in Bangladesh, a choice made by the students, hailed widely.
Indian media’s overall response to Hasina’s fall have been mixed, though in some cases, the reaction has been frenzy veering on schizophrenia.
The sceptics in India, who are in the majority paint a rather gloomy post-Hasina scenario for Bangladesh: (i) fall of Hasina “a bulwark against Islamist extremism” signals rise of “Islamic radicalism” in Bangladesh; (ii) Hindus, the minority in Bangladesh are under attack; and that (iii) Bangladeshis are ungrateful for “…even Hasina’s staunchest critic would agree that the former prime minister turned around Bangladesh’s ‘broken economy’ and ushered in ‘unprecedented economic growth.”
How true are these assertions? Let us discuss these claims one by one.
“Rise of Islamic radicalism”
By drawing attention to several recent attacks on Hindus, the minority in Bangladesh, that had taken place in the immediate aftermath of the fall of Hasina, Indian media have reported these attacks as works of the Islamic radicals. However, bulk of these post-Hasina attacks targeted Muslims and lately, Muslim Sufi shrines.
These post-Hasina attacks occurred at a time when the Interim Government was yet to consolidate its grip on the administration, which may have opened opportunities for mob justice against pent-up grievances. Some were pure vandalism, and some but not all attacks on Hindus were religiously inspired.
The minority community in any society, religious or otherwise are indeed, the most vulnerable group and Bangladesh is no exception and less we talk about the minority safety and security issues especially those of Muslims in India, better it is.
The thing that keeps the minority community safe in any community are the human rights laws and strict compliance of these laws.
Sadly, human rights and rule of law have never been one of Bangladesh’s strongest points and during Sheikh Hasina’s despotic reign, the space of human rights shrunk so badly that no one except the ruling party loyalists were safe though it is also true that during her reign, Hindus felt relatively safer, and this is not because Hasina is a “champion of secularism” but because she used Hindus as political tools. She handpicked and pampered Hindus selectively with jobs and other privileges, to please India, her mentor and in Bangladesh, she used Hindus to do the dirty works on her behalf.
Sadly, Hasina’s pampered and selective treatment of Hindus have not gone down well with the Muslims. Hasina’s politically opportunistic use of Hindus had pitted the Muslims against the Hindus which in turn, made Hindus in Bangladesh more insecure than secure.
Furthermore, Muslims in Bangladesh are also irked by the fact that the Hindus in general and Hindu organizations in particular have never empathised with nor raised their voices against the decades long horrific violations of human rights of the Hasina government that targeted mainly the Muslims belonging to the opposition parties and much worse, nor have they ever protested persecution of Muslims in India, a minority in the Hindu majority India where they, the Muslims, are routinely publicly lynched on suspicion of consuming and/or carrying beef, a religiously sanctioned prohibited food in India, and where mosques and properties of Muslims are demolished, with impunity.
The antipathy of the Bangladeshi Hindus and Hindu organizations towards Muslim sufferings, at home and in India have done precious little to earn the empathy of the Muslims towards Hindus in Bangladesh. This is sad.
Indian media does not seem to see these Hindu/Muslim disconnects in Bangladesh.
Lately, a demand by a section of Bangladeshis to change Bangladesh’s national anthem, a poem of Rabindranath Tagore, a Hindu and an Indian who wrote the poem in 1905 and was chosen by the Bangladesh government-in-exile in 1971 has added to India’s suspicion of rise of “Islamic radicalism” in post-Hasina Bangladesh.
The Interim Government in Bangladesh has made it clear that changing the national anthem is not on their agenda though there are instances where countries have changed their national anthems – for example, five countries have changed their national anthems and Denmark, and New Zealand have two national anthems each.
Notwithstanding, it would be unfair to say that Bangladesh has no Islamic radicals. Like most countries Bangladesh does have its fair share of religious extremists, just that their numbers are small, and their political base is insignificant. For example, during 1990-2007 when Bangladesh enjoyed a brief period of functioning democracy, the Islamic parties never got more than 7-10 seats in the 350-seat parliament which implies that while most Bangladeshi Muslims are pious, they are not fanatics nor are they a huge fan of political Islam.
The economy
Indian analysts have also berated the Bangladeshis for not acknowledging and appreciating the contributions Hasina government had made in the economic development of Bangladesh, that she turned Bangladesh’s “broken economy” to an “unprecedented growth economy.”
It is true that during Hasina’s current rule (2009-August 5, 2024) Bangladesh economy grew at 6.1% in 2014 and picked at 7.9% in 2018 and then came down 5.8% in 2023. However, it is wrong to suggest that Hasina turned around “broken economy” into a booming economy. The fact of the matter is that the economic growth during Hasina period was a continuum of a growth pattern that Bangladesh accomplished since 2005 when the Bangladesh economy grew at 5.1% per annum.
Furthermore, the Ready-Made Garments exports and overseas remittances, the two key drivers of Bangladesh’s economic growth have had their beginnings in late seventies and not since 2009.
Again on the issue of economic development, it would not be wise to overlook that much of the “unprecedented growth” during the 2009-2024 Hasina regime, also accompanied large scale crony corruption, overspendings in over-costed infrastructure projects that were funded through reckless foreign borrowing and not to forget a hooping $100bn that have been laundered abroad by her cronies that combinedly, have saddled Bangladesh with huge debts and put the economy in a dire strait.
Reflecting on Hasina’s decades long brutal suppression of popular will, her complete destruction of transparency and accountability in governance, hollowing out the economy through crony corruption and reckless borrowing, and the rising inflation and surging youth unemployment that had made everyday living by the ordinary Bangladeshis immensely challenging and fomented mass anger that simmered below, a recently published book (October 2023), ‘Bangladesh’s Seven Governing Periods, 1072-2022: Accomplishments, ‘Constants of Bad Governance’ and Much-needed Resets’ observed, “…Bangladeshis have this unique capacity to take in a lot, but a time comes when they stand up and confront the predators and take upon themselves the task of remedying the wrongs and usher in a new beginning. That time has come…” Indeed, that time came on August 5, 2025.
Let us be clear – Islamic radicals did not cause Hasina’s fall, she herself – her arrogance, greed, intolerance to dissent, and her insatiable desire to stay in power at any cost, and crony corruption and her unholy alliance with India – were sufficient to trigger her fall.
Hasina’s fall is also a good lesson in geopolitics. Her fall has revealed and amplified that “Moholla Mastani” (area goon) is not a great way to promote enduring and mutually beneficial relationships between and among neighbours – what is needed is investment in and bonding with people.
Let Hasina’s fall be an opportunity for all to learn from the mistakes she and her allies committed and rise from falling.