Assembly elections 2024 are being organised after a gap of ten years under changed circumstances after erosion of Art 370 and abrogation of special autonomy. A number of changes have been introduced in the political structures and processes – a list of few such changes related to elections:
State has been bifurcated and downgraded to the status of UT. The government that will be formed after election will not have the same powers as the state governments had till the last election. Till the restoration of the Statehood, the LG will be having substantial powers.
Delimitation process has restructured the constituencies – increased the number from 83 to 90 (the number was 87 in 2014 but four Assembly seats were allocated to Ladakh region. With Ladakh being formed a separate UT without Legislature, share of Jammu and Kashmir regions was 83) . Of these 90 seats 47 are located in Kashmir Valley and 43 in Jammu region. Earlier (as in 2014 and earlier elections) Kashmir region had 46 seats and Jammu region had 37 seats.
Apart from 90 Assembly seats on which election would take place, there are few more seats which will be nominated to represent Kashmiri Pandits, POK Refugees and women These nominated members having the voting right would be crucial in the formation or fall of a government. As of now, as per the Reorganisation Act, the power to nominate two representatives of Kashmiri Pandits and one of POK refugees lies with the LG.
Along with the seven reserved seats for Scheduled Castes, for the first time, there would be election on 9 reserved seats for Scheduled Tribes (six constituencies in Jammu region and three in Kashmir). Unlike the earlier times when the Legislative Assembly in J&K had a tenure of six years, now it will have a tenure only of five years. The legislature has changed in another manner – from being bi-cameral, it has become unicameral with there being no more a Legislative Council.
NC-Congress Alliance
Dr. Farooq Abdullah’s declaration that the NC-Congress Alliance for 90 Assembly seats has been finalised. It is a very significant development, of course a fall-out of 2014 Parliamentary elections when the INDIA Block Alliance paid off to both the parties. While NC won 2 of the 3 Lok Sabha Constituencies in Kashmir region, Congress could improve upon its voting percentage in two Lok Sabha constituencies of Jammu region. From being totally dismissed as having any chance against the very dominant BJP, the Congress gave a good competition to the winning BJP candidates polling around 40% or more votes in these two constituencies.
If the alliance works out for all the 90 seats, it will have a direct implications for Jammu region where there will be one to one competition between NC-Congress Alliance and BJP. There will be few seats in Poonch-Rajouri and Doda belt where PDP and Ghulam Nabi Azad’s DPAP might field candidates, but with NC and Congress also having stakes in these areas, the advantage will certainly go to the Congress-NC Alliance.
In Kashmir, it make situation difficult for the PDP. PDP till now had been giving all signals for its openness to join the alliance with Congress (and even with Congress and NC) but NC (especially Omar Abdullah) since long has made up its mind to fight against and not with PDP. Like the Parliamentary elections where there was PDP and NC contesting against each other, in the forthcoming elections also one would see contest between NC-Congress Alliance on the one hand and PDP on the other. There would be other parties also in fray especially in North Kashmir – Sajad Lone’s PC and Engineer Rashid’s party (which defeated Omar Abdullah in Lok Sabha elections), and of course Apni Party. But generally speaking the Alliance has already got an early advantage. Rest we will see as the situation further evolves
NC-PDP and Teething Problems in Congress NC-Alliance
Following the announcement of NC-Congress alliance an interesting conversation is taking place between the NC and PDP. This conversation is a reflection of sweet-bitter relationship that these two parties have been having since 2019. After working together under the platform of PAGD and even fighting together the District Development Council Election, the two parties have come back to their traditional mould of political rivalry.
Since PDP’s emergence in 1998 and especially since the 2002 Assembly election, the PDP and NC have been bitter rivals and have been contesting elections against each other. It was with the emergence of PDP that the NC lost its electoral hegemony in Kashmir and though in 2002, it emerged as the largest party of the Valley (and of the state) but could not cross the majority mark. In each election since then, the two parties have been political adversaries. Though these parties came together after the abrogation of the special constitutional status of the state, the electoral logic has brought them back to being the rivals that these were. Though due to its very weekend position, the PDP still aspired to be part of a common alliance with NC and Congress.
It needs to be noted that PDP has faced exodus of its senior leaders in last few years and it has lost even its founding members to rival parties. While Apni Party that was established in 2020 had a large number of PDP leaders, there were other parties like People’s Conference where some of the stalwarts of the party shifted to. PDP therefore from the beginning has been wanting a PAGD kind of alliance for electoral purposes. But NC having the confidence that it has advantage in fighting the election against the PDP rather than with PDP, has been shunning the PDP’s offer of Alliance. That is the reason that while the NC had alliance with Congress in Parliamentary elections, it fought the PDP on three constituencies of Kashmir. And in the present situation also, while the PDP showed its availability for alliance with Congress and NC, both the parties ignored the offer. it is in this background there have been interesting exchanges between PDP and NC. Beginning was made by Mehbooba Mufti. While releasing the manifesto of the party she stated that her party will support the NC-Congress alliance on all the seats if the alliance accepts the agenda of PDP. Thus she said, ‘Forget about alliance and seat-sharing, if the Congress and the National Conference (NC) are ready to accept our agenda’, PDP will let them contest all the seats and will follow these parties. It is in response to this that Omar Abdullah has alleged that the PDP has copied NC’s agenda and taken all the issues mentioned in its manifesto. And on that note has asked the PDP not to field any candidate on any seat and follow the NC. Omar has stated that every thing that PDP has mentioned in its manifesto is already there in NC’s manifesto and even small details like providing free units of electricity and government jobs have been copied by the PDP from NC’s manifesto.
Meanwhile the NC-Congress alliance is facing teething problems with both the parties making claims on many constituencies in J&K. While there seem to be not many issues in the plains of Jammu where NC doesn’t have much stake, there are serious issues about few seats in Kashmir Valley where Congress is seeking to contest elections and NC is not ready to leave these for Congress. Also problematic are the Poonch-Rajouri and Doda belt seats where both NC and Congress have claims. There are speculation that the situation is so difficult that in the end if the alliance works out for other seats, there may be a number of seats where there may be possibility of ‘friendly contest’ between the alliance partners. There is also speculation that the alliance might lead to a large number of rebel candidates from both the parties
Jamaat-e-Islami fielding Independent candidates
Another important development in Kashmir is Jamaat -e- Islami’s decision to field candidates in the Assembly elections as independents. Jamaat that has been banned since 2019, has been, for some time, showing its keenness to participate in electoral politics and has been requesting lifting of the ban imposed on this organisation. While ban on the organisation is intact, it nevertheless has decided to field candidates as Independents.
Jamaat has an intricate history of being a socio-religious organisation having a network of educational institutions in Kashmir; an organisation that has participated in electoral politics in significant moments; and an organisation that has had a close association with the separatist politics. It was also closely associated with Hizbul Mujahideen a militant organisation, though in 1998, it disassociated itself from the militancy. As history would inform us, Jamaat and National Conference had antithetical relations. In fact Jamaat was banned by Sheikh Abdullah when he rejoined power in 1975 after his long incarceration. Ban was however lifted after some time. Jamaat contested the 1971 Assembly elections with some success. (it won five seats) As per the political analysts of the time, it (Jamaat) was encouraged to contest elections so as to stall the entry of Plebiscite Front (working under the patronage of Sheikh Abdullah) in electoral politics. Plebiscite Front had at that time had shown its willingness to contest elections.
Jamaat could not repeat its spectacular electoral performance during 1977 Assembly election. This was mainly due to influence of Sheikh in the electoral politics. It could barely win one seat during this election. It failed to win any seat in 1983 elections. It was, however, to play an important role in 1987 Assembly election when it organised the Muslim United Front (MUF) that entered electoral fray in a big way. It was in the wake of NC-Congress alliance in 1986 (termed as ‘unholy alliance’) that Jamaat led MUF had sought to capture the political space in Kashmir. However, despite the great hype of MUF during the election campaign, the conglomerate ended up winning only four seats in 1987 Assembly election. It was this electoral verdict which was to become the reason for political turbulence in Kashmir. With the allegation that the election was manipulated and rigged, the political environment of Kashmir was to undergo a major transformation after that. The protests and processions in post-1987 period ultimately gave way to armed militancy and separatism in Kashmir. Democratic politics collapsed and political parties became totally irrelevant in Kashmir. Jamaat thereafter became associated with separatist politics and militancy via Hizbul Mujahideen. Even after its disassociation with militancy in 1998, the Jamaat has been shunning the electoral politics and has been known for its boycott politics. Its keenness to participate in electoral politics is therefore a reflection of radical change in its political position.
Will the entry of Jamaat candidates make some difference in the electoral outcome? Difficult to say at the moment, but one can clearly state that Jamaat has its cadre and its support base. Its presence may impact the NC space to some extent. But the constituencies that the Jamaat candidates are contesting are in South Kashmir which is PDP’s stronghold and therefore will certainly impact PDP as well. How much, though is difficult to say. The Jammat has political commitments to Nation state politics since its inception. That is the reason Jamat-i-islami has variegated approaches in different regions of South Asia. Its policy to refurbish muslim political culture and participation on one hand and onn the other hand to redesign the architect opf Islamic polity.
BJP’s problem of plenty
Since 2018, BJP in J&K succeeded in bringing to its fold many political stalwarts from parties like National Conference and Congress to its fold. The most spectacular shift in this context was that of Davender Singh Rana who was the provincial president of National Conference and Surjit Singh Slathia another NC stalwart who had held ministerial position in NC government. There were others like Sham Lal who had been an old Congress loyalist. These and many others who shifted to BJP, were influential leaders in their respective parties and had entered BJP with the expectation of being given an equally important space in this party.And of course, getting elected as BJP MLAs is their minimum expectation. So when some of these leaders were accommodated in the first list as BJP’s nominees, it led to protests because there were many whose names were missing. These missing names were of those leaders who had been associated with the party from a long time and held important positions within the party and its government in 2014-2018 period. So strong was the reaction of the workers supporting the old party loyalists that the BJP was compelled to withdraw the list within few hours and was to re-issue a revised but quite curtailed list.
The problem here is that of rift between ‘Insiders’ vs ‘outsiders’. The old party loyalists considering themselves as ‘insiders’ as against those who have come from other parties. Alternatively speaking, it is also the problem of ‘plenty’. Being a party that expects to do well in Jammu region, there are far too many candidates that it can accommodate while distributing the tickets. How will BJP tackle this problem, will be interesting to watch
End of Boycott Politics in Kashmir!
Jammu and Kashmir is in the middle of intensified electioneering with political parties busy with finalising candidates, nominations being filed, manifestoes being released, and issues being articulated. In this process there are some interesting trends which might be highlighted. I want to focus is on the enthusiasm and vigour about electoral politics in Kashmir on the one end and the end of ‘Boycott politics’ on the other.
In a place like Kashmir where elections have always been problematic and either have been seen to be manipulated/ rigged or managed from above, the enthusiasm for elections speaks a lot about the legitimacy of electoral process. It is only three and half decade back that electoral politics had been so de-legitimised that there were no parties coming forward to contest the 1989 Parliamentary election and no voter was ready to cast the votes. Thus while the winning candidate in one constituency was returned unopposed, in other two constituencies, there was around 5% voter turnout. Soon thereafter the whole democratic space collapsed and political parties went into hibernation. Though electoral politics was restored in 1996 yet, legitimacy eluded the electoral politics. It was the 2002 Assembly election that was considered to be a legitimate exercise. Though militancy was still very much alive and separatism was still kicking, yet there were no questions raised about the election and no allegations were made about rigging or manipulation. It was after 2002 Assembly election that the democratic politics started gaining ground. Even when separatist space continued to thrive and separatist upsurge was taking place from time to time (in 2008, 2010, 2016), every Assembly election saw the consolidation of democratic space. Most interesting was the 2008 Assembly election that immediately followed the massive separatist upsurge that lasted whole of summer months of 2008. Emboldened by their role, separatist leaders gave call for boycott of elections. People however participated in huge numbers boycotting the very boycott call. The 2011 Panchayat election that took place barely a few months after the 2010 separatist upsurge was similarly to see massive participation and recorded 80% voter turnout. 2014 Assembly election also was quite participatory – almost a normal exercise.
Gauging the electoral vibrancy in Kashmir in the ongoing 2024 Assembly election, one can anticipate a reasonably high voter turnout this time too. The voter turnout in the recently held Parliamentary election has already indicated this. However, what is so unique and specific about the present elections is the very end of the ‘boycott politics’.
The boycott politics was initiated in the decade of the 1990s as the separatist response to the state’s attempts to restore the electoral processes. Campaigning against the elections, the separatist leaders asked the people to boycott the electoral process. The campaign succeeded in wooing the voters away from the polling booths throughout the decade of the 1990s. Even during the 2002 assembly elections, the effect of this politics could be seen reflected in the voter turnout in many of the districts of Kashmir. While the erstwhile districts of Anantnag and Pulwama had recorded a voter turnout of less than 25 per cent, it was in the district of Srinagar that saw the maximum impact of boycott call of separatists . Here, the total voter turnout was around 11 per cent and there were several constituencies where the voting percentage was as insignificant as 3.06 per cent in Amirakadal, 3.21 per cent in Habbakadal, 4 per cent in Batmaloo, 4.22 per cent in Khanyar, 4.75 per cent in Idgah and 4.78 per cent in Zadibal. Though in 2008 Assembly elections, the boycott call was not as effective but there were still certain areas where the boycott politics had its impact. The Srinagar district even then had a voter percentage of 21.58%. There were a number of constituencies in this district where voter turnout was quite dismal. 2014 Assembly election saw overall 56.69% voter turnout but still there were certain constituencies where people boycotted the elections. For instance in constituencies like Habbakadal, Amirakadal, Khanyar, Idgah, Zadibal, Hazratbal, the voter turnout was less than 30%.
So what is peculiar about the present election is that the boycott politics has been totally rejected. First there are no separatists around who can give a call for boycott, the space has been totally eliminated. Second, reason is more interesting – the separatists and the hardliners who were behind the boycott politics seem to be shifting sides and showing their keen interest in participating in elections. Engineer Rashid’s Jammu and Kashmir Awami Ittehad party’s success seems to have triggered the interest among the separatists to join the electoral politics. While Jamaat-e-Islami is fielding candidates in the election there were other like jailed separatist Sarjan Barkati whose nomination now stands rejected, who wanted to contest elections.
Separatists shifting sides is not a new phenomenon in Kashmir. In last two decades, there has been a history of separatists and even former militants shifting sides and joining mainstream politics. The process started in 1996 when many surrendered militants formed their own political parties and participated in electoral politics- Awami League of Kukkar Parrey and Awami Conference of Hilal Haider, for instance. 2002 Assembly elections saw the ‘proxy candidates’ from among the rank of separatists, especially those with affiliations with People’s Conference that was at that time a core part of Hurriyat Conference. It was the participation of these proxy candidates that there were fissures in the Hurriyat. With hardliners objecting to proxy candidature of People’s Conference, this ultimately led to to split in this organisation. A few years later, Sajjad Lone was to become the first prominent separatist leader to have shifted his political position and to have brought himself and his party to the mainstream politics. He contested 2009 Parliamentary elections. His rejection of separatist politics and rehabilitation in mainstream politics since then is an example in itself.
A peep into the history of NC-Congress relationship in J&K and the changed context of present Alliance
While the NC-Congress Alliance during the 2024 Assembly elections has a different context and an altogether different meaning, there is a whole history of various turns and twists in the relationship that these two parties had in different phases of J&K’s politics. The earliest chapter of the relationship between these parties starts sometime in the middle of 1930s when a close association started developing between Sheikh Mohammed Abdullah, the then leader of Muslim Conference and the Indian National Congress Leaders, particularly Jawaharlal Nehru. It was actually the influence of the Congress leaders that Sheikh sought to change the very nature of Muslim Conference from being a religion-oriented organisation to a progressive, pro-people organisation with a radical economic agenda. In 1939 the Muslim Conference was converted into the National Conference.
So invested was the Congress at this time in the National Conference that it did not feel the need to extend itself to princely state of J&K and rather chose to operate through National Conference. In fact when the leadership of Jammu-based Dogra Sadar Sabha decided to bring Congress to the state by merging the Sabha with the Congress and declaring it as a branch of Congress, the national leadership objected to it. And even after 1947, Congress, due to the overwhelming presence of NC, Congress leaders did not feel the need to have its presence in J&K.
With Sheikh’s incarceration in 1953, a qualitative change came in the relationship between the NC and Congress. This was mainly due to the change in the character of the NC which in the absence of Sheikh had become quite a truncated organisation. With its cadre and support base shifting away to Plebiscite Front, it lost its political autonomy. Bakshi Ghulam Mohammed who now headed the organisation, facing the challenge of legitimacy became dependent on Congress (the ruling party in the Centre) for his survival. In the process, the NC was so ‘Congressised’ that no questions were raised when Bakshi who was still heading the NC government resigned under the Kamraj Plan in 1962. Kamraj Plan, it needs to be emphasised, was an internal reorganisation plan of Congress party.
It was this process of ‘Congressisation’ of NC that culminated in the dissolution of NC and its merger with the Congress under the leadership of G M Sadiq. It was the intrusive politics of Congress that made this party so unpopular at some point of time that it really made the life (as well as death) of Kashmiri Congress leaders very difficult. A new phase, however, in Congress-NC relationship was started in mid-1970s when Congress facilitated Sheikh and NC’s return to power. While the Indira-Sheikh Accord was formalised, it was the Congress government led by Mir Qasim that resigned and made way for Sheikh and his newly revived NC to form the government with the support of Congress.
However, within a year, the support was withdrawn and there started a phase of NC-Congress rivalry. Congress kept on trying to get back its power by pressurising NC either to merge with it or have an alliance with it. Since this could not be possible during Sheikh’s life time, renewed efforts in this directions were made after his death. Farooq Abdullah, who succeeded Sheikh, resisted the pressure initially and gave a bitter fight to Congress during 1983 Assembly election. This election that was polarised on regional and communal basis, resulted in NC sweeping the Kashmir region and Congress taking significantly large number of seats in Jammu region. Obtaining clear majority at the state level, the NC under the leadership of Farooq Abdullah formed the government only to be overthrown in 1984 following engineered defections in the party. The GM Shah’s government of defectors thereafter was given support by the Congress.A yet another phase in NC-Congress relationship was to be seen in 2008-2014 period when, the two parties joined to run the coalition government. By this time the situation was much changed for NC as it had lost its singular control over Kashmir’s politics and though had emerged as the largest party of the state, but could not obtain majority. With the emergence of PDP in 1999, the political space in Kashmir had been fragmented and no single party could form the government. NC’s formation of coalition government with Congress, therefore did not raise many questions. Though there were significant political differences between the two parties, yet, the ideological gulf between the two parties was not unbridgeable.
It is in the similar context of the fragmented politics of J&K where there are multiple claimants to political power that the present NC-Congress alliance has an altogether different connotation (different from the 1986 NC-Congress alliance). Starting from 2002, it is a situation in which there is not much hope for a single party to obtain the majority and form the government. Much more so as the fragmentation not only exists within Kashmir region but across the regions. There is no single party in J&K that has its hold in whole Jammu and Kashmir. Politics has come to be fragmented on regional basis that while some parties are having stronghold in Kashmir region and other parties have stronghold in Jammu region. In the light of this situation, NC-Congress alliance with NC having its stronghold in Kashmir region and Congress having its stronghold in Jammu region – have the advantage of having presence in whole of J&K – provided these two parties perform well.
NC-Congress alliance is seen as an early advantage for both the parties in their competition with other parties, more importantly the BJP. The fact that this alliance has been tested earlier in the 2024 Parliamentary elections with some success (two Parliamentary seats for NC and a higher voter turnout for Congress) is an additional advantage. Will this initial advantage be translated into reality? It is a big question. The election in any case has become much more complex than what appears to be. There are many additional factors in play
Changing Electoral Realities In Kashmir And Omar Abdullah Contesting From Two Constituencies
Assembly elections in J&K are becoming all the more competitive and more uncertain. How much pressure is there on candidates and parties gets reflected from Omar Abdullah’s decision to contest from a second seat in Badgam – the first one being Ganderbal. Of all the parties located in Kashmir, it is the NC which is standing on more certain grounds – not only because it is the oldest party having a strong base and cadre at the ground level, but also because it had fared quite well after the August 2019 changes. The DDC elections in 2020 and the recent Parliamentary elections have proved that. And while parties like PDP have faced major challenges since 2019, this party has shown its resilience. Such resilience was reflected not only in the performance of the NC during these above said elections, but also in the fact that the party in the post-2019 period was not seriously impacted by the culture of shifting loyalties. It was this culture that brought PDP face to face with the existential crisis. With almost all its founding members shifting loyalties to other parties, this party is still struggling to remain a key player in Kashmir’s politics.
Thus one can see that NC has been on surer grounds as compared to other parties. The Apni party that was floated in post-2019 period with much expectation, failed to make its mark and the People’s Conference continues to be limited in its influence in few constituencies of North Kashmir. However, despite being much ahead of other political parties in Kashmir, the situation, as it appears, is not so smooth for the NC. The defeat of Omar Abdullah in Parliamentary election has clearly indicated that there is still something in Kashmir that can work as a challenge to the NC. Engineer Rashid’s victory in that election has presented new realities and possibilities in Kashmir’s politics. Separatists in hordes are seeking to use the electoral space for their benefit and contesting elections as Independents – not only Jamaat-e-Islami but others too.
Engineer Rashid’s model is now being followed by others like Sarjan Barkati who is a jailed separatist and desperate to participate in elections. After his nomination in Zainpora Assembly election was rejected, he has filed his nomination paper from two other constituencies. One of these is the constituency on which Omar Abdullah had also filed his nomination. Soon after Barkati filing his nomination for Ganderbal constituency, Omar Abdullah decided to file his nomination from another constituency – Badgam.