The Rohingya crisis stands as one of the most pressing and protracted humanitarian challenges in South Asia, involving over 1.1 million forcibly displaced Rohingya who have sought refuge in Bangladesh, primarily in the Cox’s Bazar region. Fleeing targeted violence, systemic discrimination, and denial of citizenship in Myanmar particularly following the brutal military crackdown in 2017, these stateless individuals remain in a condition of indefinite limbo. The international community has lauded Bangladesh’s initial humanitarian response, but as the crisis enters its eighth year, the country finds itself grappling with the geopolitical, economic, and security implications of hosting such a large and vulnerable population.
In recent years, repatriation efforts have stalled repeatedly due to Myanmar’s lack of political will, the absence of guarantees for citizenship and safety, and the Rohingya community’s firm insistence on preconditions for return. Meanwhile, the humanitarian situation in the camps has deteriorated, with rising incidences of criminality, trafficking, radicalization, and social tension between the refugees and host communities. These factors have complicated the governance landscape and eroded the prospects for a durable solution.
Meanwhile, the political situation in Bangladesh took a dramatic turn in July-August 2024 when widespread public protests led to the resignation of the government. In the wake of this upheaval, an interim administration was established under the leadership of Nobel Laureate Dr. Muhammad Yunus, with a stated mandate of national reform and institutional stabilization. This transition ushered in a period of political recalibration, including in matters of refugee policy. The new administration has taken visible steps to revive and prioritize the Rohingya agenda: appointing a dedicated advisor on Rohingya issues, intensifying diplomatic efforts, and proposing a multilateral international conference. Myanmar’s recent agreement to repatriate 180,000 Rohingya from an earlier list of 800,000 marks a potential diplomatic breakthrough, albeit one that remains fraught with logistical and political uncertainty.
Concurrently, troubling reports have emerged of Rohingya youths receiving militant training across the border in Myanmar, hinting at a possible militarization of desperation. These developments underline the dual threat of stagnating diplomacy and rising instability. Against this backdrop, Bangladesh’s policy options are increasingly shaped by a volatile mix of domestic political contestation, institutional inertia, humanitarian imperatives, and international pressure.
As Bangladesh navigates its transitional political phase under the interim government of Dr. Muhammad Yunus, there lies a critical opportunity to recalibrate its response to the longstanding Rohingya crisis. Drawing lessons from global refugee governance models, several policy and strategic recommendations emerge that could guide the country toward a more sustainable, rights-based, and regionally coordinated approach to managing the crisis.
Just as countries like Germany, Jordan, and Uganda have established dedicated refugee policy and research units to guide long-term humanitarian decision-making, Bangladesh may consider establishing a Rohingya Affairs Research and Strategy Center (RARSC). This center could serve as a national knowledge hub for refugee policy innovation, conflict-sensitive governance, and international negotiations offering technical advice to the government, humanitarian partners, and international allies.
Alongside this, the government may launch a National Policy on Displacement and Stateless Persons, clearly defining the state’s framework for hosting refugees, managing humanitarian responses, preparing for voluntary repatriation, and facilitating international legal cooperation. This policy should be flexible enough to respond to changing geopolitical contexts, and strong enough to uphold Bangladesh’s national security and humanitarian principles.
To strengthen regional leadership, Bangladesh should build on the momentum from the 6th BIMSTEC Summit and propose the creation of a Regional Taskforce on Rohingya Repatriation and Integration (RTRRI). This taskforce comprising members from Bangladesh, Myanmar, Malaysia, India, Thailand, and ASEAN could develop a regionally acceptable plan that ensures dignity, citizenship guarantees, and development cooperation in Rakhine.
In the short to medium term, the following institutional and field-level interventions are recommended to address critical gaps:
- Strengthen diplomatic leverage with Myanmar through multilateral mechanisms rather than relying solely on bilateral engagement. Myanmar must be pressured to uphold citizenship rights, return of land, and safety guarantees as preconditions for meaningful repatriation.
- Establish localized Repatriation Assessment Committees (RACs) in Cox’s Bazar, comprising Rohingya representatives, civil society actors, and UN agencies, to ensure all repatriation plans reflect the free, prior, and informed consent of the refugee community.
- Develop a strategic communications campaign targeting both domestic and international audiences, highlighting Bangladesh’s humanitarian commitment while also countering misinformation and polarization regarding Rohingya presence.
- Introduce structured psychosocial and education programs targeting Rohingya youth, aimed at reducing frustration, enhancing employability, and preventing radicalization. Skill development centers and peace education modules should be introduced inside refugee camps with UN and NGO support.
- Promote host-refugee integration initiatives to reduce local tensions. Investment in shared services, such as healthcare, sanitation, and markets, would help build resilience for both communities while ensuring that humanitarian aid does not alienate host populations.
- Strengthen humanitarian infrastructure inside the camps, including improved shelters, reliable water access, food distribution, and basic internet facilities to maintain communication and education access. Investments in safety, such as street lighting and watch posts, should be reinforced.
- Create a Joint Civil-Military Humanitarian Oversight Unit (JCMHOU) to ensure that security operations in refugee areas are conducted transparently, with oversight from the Ministry of Disaster Management and Refugee Affairs and select independent monitors.
- Improve coordination with donors and streamline funding mechanisms through a Rohingya Crisis Response Compact similar to the Jordan Compact for Syrian refugees where donors commit multi-year funding in exchange for policy reforms, development support, and transparent impact tracking.
- Leverage diaspora and private sector involvement by inviting Rohingya diaspora organizations and Bangladeshi entrepreneurs to co-invest in safe housing, education, and repatriation-readiness zones in Rakhine, once political conditions improve.
- Facilitate Rohingya representation in national and international forums, where they can voice their aspirations, build trust, and participate in shaping their own futures. Exclusion only deepens despair and encourages alternative, potentially destabilizing ideologies.
- Promote documentation and transitional justice efforts through national commissions or in collaboration with international partners, ensuring that victims of violence and displacement are recognized, and records are preserved for any future international legal proceedings.
Bangladesh must approach the Rohingya crisis not just as a temporary displacement issue, but as a regional and long-term governance challenge. Like the efforts to modernize tourism infrastructure in the Chittagong Hill Tracts (CHT) to global standards, this crisis demands multi-sectoral investment, inclusive planning, and cross-border consensus. By integrating refugee governance into national reform priorities, the interim government has the chance to set a global example, bridging political transition with humanitarian leadership and international diplomacy.
The post–July-August 2024 political transition in Bangladesh has opened a critical window for redefining the country’s Rohingya policy. While the interim government has demonstrated renewed diplomatic engagement and humanitarian commitment, the structural challenges of political legitimacy, institutional inertia, and regional insecurity continue to constrain lasting solutions. The pathway forward demands sustained international collaboration, inclusive governance, and a strategic balance between national interest and humanitarian obligation. Bangladesh’s response in this transitional moment will likely shape the regional discourse on refugee protection, security, and political accountability for years to come.