Zafar Iqbal Yousafzai
Pakistan has been facing challenges in both the dimensions of security: internal and external. Though since 2014, the internal challenges were overcome by Pakistan due to its comprehensive counterterrorism strategy and operations in the tribal belts. However, following the fall of Kabul to the Taliban, the security situation in Pakistan’s tribal areas and Baluchistan have deteriorated where attacks are constantly happening on security forces. Similarly, Pakistan had been facing a two-front external security threat, however; the western front is not a serious threat now as it was before the fall of Kabul to the Taliban.
Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) is constantly launching attacks on the security forces in the tribal and adjacent areas. Pakistani government and TTP in early November signed a month-long ceasefire that has ended on December 8. Though the government wanted to extend it, yet the Taliban refused to do so. It was reported that the Taliban government in Afghanistan had helped agree on the Taliban to the ceasefire. The government of Pakistan was interested in extending the ceasefire as well as wanting to reach any negotiated settlement with the Taliban, however, the TTP demands could not be met instantly. It is pertinent to mention that TTP is demanding the release of its 102 prisoners. Yet the government is cautious about this matter as there is no guarantee whether negotiations will succeed or not.
Despite government interests, there is skepticism in experts working on the issue. There had been many agreements between the TTP and government in the past. However, each agreement collapsed after some time. Hence, expecting any long-term and durable agreement is unlikely between the two parties. The government of Pakistan is also trying to persuade the Taliban in Afghanistan to either convince them to talk or take action against them those sheltering in Afghanistan.
Moreover, Pakistan is also facing security challenges on the external front. India-Pakistan relations are not on a smooth path. Since BJP has come to power in 2014, India’s aggressive policies have provoked Pakistan. Modi is in favor of a retaliatory approach towards Pakistan. Even before that, when the Mumbai terrorist attacks did happen, India adopted the strategy of limited war (surgical strikes) in addition to the Cold Start Strategy. This new Indian warmongering has poisoned the South Asian strategic environment. India was also using Afghan and Iranian soil against Pakistan. However, the change of regime in Kabul has changed the dynamics for Ind9ia where she is no more able to use Afghan soil against Pakistan.
Moreover, the security of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor is another challenge for the government. Being called a game-changer, CPEC security is significant for Pakistan in addition to China. India is fueling terrorists and extremists to try to sabotage CPEC or inflict considerable harm to it which will dent Pakistan’s global image as an unsafe country. It is pertinent to mention that RAW operates a special cell that has the task to harm CPEC. After a long period, some minor incident takes place where the terrorist elements try to harm CPEC. However, due to tightened security measures, no major incident has taken place.
India by any means wants to destabilize Pakistan and inflict harm on it. The construction of Chabahar in Iran was meant to affect the Gwadar port project. However, it could not yield the desired results. India is also fuelling sectarianism in Pakistan and other ethnopolitical groups like Pashtun Tahafuz Movement to defame Pakistan in the name of human rights. In fact, Pashtun greatly enjoys their due rights in Pakistan.
Hence, the government of Pakistan needs to chart out a comprehensive strategy to deal with the terrorists and make the tribal region a safe area. Earlier, the Afghan side was not secure and the Afghan government was supporting anti-Pakistan elements however, at the moment, it is unlikely the Taliban will support any anti-Pakistani group on the Afghan soil or tolerate them to conduct activities across the border. There should be a comprehensive agreement between the Taliban government and the Pakistani government for working against6 terrorists and extremists and not to allow any group that works against another state. The issue of TTP can be solved once Pakistan and the Taliban reach any agreement vis-à-vis extremist elements. In order to balance the Indian threat, Pakistan should maintain its credible deterrence to ensure its peace and security.
Zafar Iqbal Yousafzai is a Senior Research Associate, Strategic Vision Institute, Islamabad.