Pakistan’s anti-Imran Khan coalition stuck on power-sharing formula

ISLAMABAD — More than 10 days after Pakistan’s elections, two key parties are struggling to finalize a power-sharing arrangement that would allow them to form a coalition government and fend off a large group of independent candidates backed by the party of jailed former Prime Minister Imran Khan.

The Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) led by three-time Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif had been widely expected to win the Feb. 8 polls as the preferred party of the powerful military establishment. But voters rallied behind Khan, whose Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) party was barred from contesting as a single group. PTI-backed candidates won 92 of the 265 directly contested seats in the National Assembly, while the PML-N finished with 79, according to the latest revised count.

Desperate to salvage the elections, the PML-N teamed up with the Pakistan People’s Party (PPP) led by Bilawal Bhutto Zardari and his father Asif Ali Zardari, which won 54 seats. Along with some smaller parties, they agreed to nominate another former prime minister, Shehbaz Sharif, to take the top job. But nearly a week later, they have yet to agree on a power-sharing formula.

As the pressure builds amid huge protests over alleged election tampering, experts fear the nation of over 240 million may be headed for emergency rule if a government cannot be formed soon.

A fifth round of negotiations between the PML-N and PPP concluded on Monday night without any agreement. So far, while the PPP has agreed to vote for a PML-N prime minister, it has refused to join the cabinet. This is unacceptable for the PML-N, which would end up taking sole responsibility for unpopular economic decisions the next government will have to take as the country scrambles to avoid default.

The PPP has also announced that Asif Zardari is its candidate for Pakistan’s presidency, for which an election will be held once all assemblies are up and running.

Experts say the PPP is driving a hard bargain.

“The PPP wants a maximum share [of the central government] and also in Punjab, which is causing the delay in government formation,” said Tahir Malik, a professor of international relations at the National University of Modern Languages (NUML) Islamabad, referring to the country’s most populous province. He added that PPP is gunning for important ministries as well as the positions of National Assembly speaker and Senate chairman.

Syed Muhammad Ali, a political analyst based in Islamabad, said the differences between the PML-N and PPP are not ideological. “[Differences are] in terms of sharing power and tough negotiations for specific roles in key appointments, which will be shortly resolved,” he said.

But as the days pass, pressure grows. The PTI claims that its candidates really won 177 seats and that the results were rigged. On Monday, the PTI said its candidates would join a small Sunni party to gain access to seats reserved for women and minorities.

Pakistan’s former Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif is poised to be the leadership nominee for a coalition government, but his Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz and the Pakistan People’s Party are struggling to figure out how to share power.    © AP

Stirring further controversy, bureaucrat Liaquat Ali Chattha blew the whistle on alleged election manipulation as he resigned as commissioner of Rawalpindi, the top administrative officer for five districts in northern Punjab. “We made independent candidates, who had leads of 70,000 to 80,000 votes, lose by putting on fake stamps,” he told reporters on Saturday.

The Election Commission of Pakistan strongly denied Chattha’s allegations but was launching a probe.

Across the country, anger over the conduct of the elections has spilled into the streets. Four ethnic nationalist parties in Balochistan province have blocked highways for more than a week. In Sindh, the Grand Democratic Alliance coalition of seven parties has called for a reelection due to the alleged rigging.

Some worry that the controversy, coupled with the deadlock between the PML-N and PPP, could lead to the polls being nullified and emergency rule being imposed, suspending basic rights.

Malik at NUML was skeptical of the idea that the election results could be scrapped. “Under Pakistan’s electoral laws, elections cannot be nullified,” he said. But he predicted, “Legal battles against the elections will continue for a long while.”

An emergency declaration cannot be ruled out, he conceded.

“If there is no consensus among the PML-N and PPP on government formation for a long time, then we can expect an imposition of emergency rule just like [what was] imposed in November 2007,” said Malik. That declaration by then-President Pervez Musharraf lasted about a month and a half, during which time the constitution was suspended.

“In such a situation, the final decision will be made by the courts to either uphold or reject the emergency rule,” Malik added.

Shahzada Zulfiqar, a political analyst in Quetta, said the post-election outlook is bleak as unprecedented protests and allegations rock the country. He thinks an election do-over is a possibility “if the situation persists with increasing intensity.”

But others expect the turmoil to die down as politicians are forced to focus on the country’s economic crisis and security problems. “Temporary reactions will gradually subside once federal and provincial governments are formed and different political parties get on with the actual business and daunting governance challenges,” said Ali, the analyst in Islamabad.