ADNAN AAMIR
ISLAMABAD — Pakistan has decided to upgrade its diplomatic relationship with Taliban-ruled Afghanistan and to send an ambassador to Kabul, highlighting Islamabad’s drastic change in its neighborhood policy in the aftermath of its recent warlike conflict with India.
“I am pleased to announce the decision of the Government of Pakistan to upgrade the level of its Charge d’Affaires in Kabul to the level of Ambassador,” Ishaq Dar, Pakistan’s foreign minister, posted on X on Friday.
Until now, Pakistan’s embassy in Kabul and Afghanistan’s embassy in Islamabad were led by a charge d’affaires, who are diplomats that head an embassy in the absence of an ambassador — and are usually an official of a lower rank. If the agreement is realized, it will be the first appointment of an ambassador to Afghanistan by Islamabad since the fall of Kabul to the Taliban in 2021.
Dar’s announcement comes after a meeting between foreign ministers of China, Pakistan and Afghanistan that was held in Beijing in May. In a statement issued at the end of the meeting, China’s Foreign Minister Wang Yi said, “Afghanistan and Pakistan expressed clear willingness to elevate diplomatic relations and agreed in principle to exchange ambassadors as soon as possible.”
In September 2023, China became the first country to appoint an ambassador to Taliban-ruled Afghanistan. China has used the words “administration” or “government” for the Kabul regime in recent years.
“Taliban’s representatives given the opportunity to meet the highest-level leadership in China shows Beijing’s willingness to go ahead with the current [regime],” Muhammad Shoaib, a postdoctoral fellow at George Mason University in the U.S., told Nikkei Asia.
Pakistan’s Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar, left, greets Afghanistan’s acting Foreign Minister Amir Khan Muttaqi in Kabul, on April 19. (Pakistan’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs via AP)Islamabad is seen to follow Beijing’s path, but not completely. “Sending a full ambassador to Afghanistan by Pakistan is not tantamount to formal recognition of the Taliban regime in Kabul,” Aizaz Ahmad Chaudhry, Pakistan’s former foreign secretary, told Nikkei. “Formal recognition of a regime needs to be announced explicitly and conveyed to global bodies such as the U.N.”
However, experts believe that China is mediating between Pakistan and Afghanistan to fill the vacuum left by the withdrawal of U.S.-led forces.
Pakistan has repeatedly blamed the Taliban for not taking action against insurgent group Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), or Pakistani Taliban, who use Afghan soil to launch attacks inside Pakistan. Islamabad has also been forcefully repatriating Afghan refugees since the beginning of this year, which has been termed as a step to punish the Taliban’s regime in Kabul.
Men pray at the funeral of an Afghan girl at a border crossing in Balochistan province, Pakistan. The girl died in November 2023 while her family was returning to Afghanistan from Pakistan. © Reuters“After the U.S. and Western countries withdrew from Afghanistan, the region was left grappling with serious issues such as terrorism, extremism and poverty,” Fakhar Kakakhel, an analyst and author covering Afghanistan, told Nikkei. “This created a vacuum. … Diplomatic efforts are the first sign of progress, and China will likely continue to play a key role in fostering closer ties between Kabul and Islamabad in the future.”
Imtiaz Gul, executive director of the Center for Research and Security Studies (CRSS), an Islamabad-based think tank, links China’s mediation to its regional ambitions. “Acting like a big brother, China wishes for its extended neighborhood to be peaceful and stable, which would support both economic connectivity and counterterrorism cooperation,” he told Nikkei.
Experts also see this move as a response to India’s recent efforts to engage Kabul as part of a broader attempt to pressure Pakistan diplomatically.
On May 15, days after Islamabad and New Delhi announced a ceasefire following heightened tensions, India’s External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar held a phone conversation with Afghan Foreign Minister Amir Muttaqi to express his gratitude for the Taliban’s condemnation of the Pahalgam attacks. India also officially resumed granting visas to Afghan citizens across multiple categories in May after a gap of five years.
“Islamabad must be more worried about the possibility of New Delhi’s return to Afghanistan as its regional ally,” Abubakar Siddique, the author of “The Pashtun Question: The Unresolved Key to the Future of Pakistan and Afghanistan,“ told Nikkei.
Kakakhel said that China is not concerned about India’s presence in Afghanistan unless India attempts to destabilize the region. “However, Pakistan has concerns, and China takes them seriously,” he told Nikkei.
Pakistan and Afghanistan’s flags flutter at a border post as Afghans return home in November 2023, after Pakistan gave a final warning to undocumented immigrants to leave. © ReutersThe trilateral foreign ministers’ meeting also reiterated a plan to extend the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) — the $50 billion Pakistan component of China’s Belt and Road Initiative — into Afghanistan.
Experts are skeptical of the implementation of the overhyped idea of extending CPEC into Afghanistan.
“CPEC has not delivered its promised prosperity to Pakistan for over a decade, particularly to its two marginalized western provinces [of Balochistan and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa] bordering Afghanistan,” Siddique said. “An announcement of extending the CPEC to Afghanistan might not produce economic wonders.”
“Islamabad will need to first treat Afghan refugees humanely and stop using border crossings and ports as a means of pressuring landlocked Afghanistan before enticing Afghans into meaningful economic cooperation,” Siddique warned.
The article appeared in the asia.nikkei