Pakistan has struggled with uncertainties about its foreign policy and diplomatic ties ever since it was founded. Immediately following independence, the world was firmly split into two ideological blocs: The Union of Soviet Socialist Republics (USSR) led the Communist bloc, while the United States led the Capitalist bloc. The start of the Cold War, which came soon after World War II ended, further exacerbated this split. Pakistan faced a great deal of difficulty navigating this complicated geopolitical landscape, which led to a serious consideration of whether to support the Communist or Capitalist bloc. In the end, Pakistan chose to support the United States, joining groups like the Southeast Asia Treaty Organisation (SEATO) and the Central Treaty Organisation (CENTO) in 1954 and 1955 respectively.
However, because the US frequently put its strategic interests ahead of its obligations to Pakistan, this partnership proved to be challenging. The 1965 Indo-Pakistani War provided a stark illustration of this mistrust, as Pakistan looked to the US for assistance but was unsuccessful. Pakistan’s turbulent relationship with the US entered a new era with its later participation in the Soviet-Afghan War. Pakistan suffered heavy losses in terms of money and human life, despite being instrumental in aiding the US-led campaign against the USSR. The US withdrew its assistance from Pakistan after the USSR’s final fall in 1989, leaving the nation to deal with the conflict’s aftereffects, which included widespread infrastructural damage and societal unrest.
The US rekindled its interest in Pakistan after the 9/11 attacks in 2001, portraying it as an essential ally in the fight against terrorism. But after US/NATO forces departed Afghanistan in 2021, history was repeated, and Pakistan was once again left to face its own challenges in spite of suffering significant casualties in the fight against terrorism. A flagship project of China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), the massive CPEC project is estimated to be worth $62 billion. Several of the CPEC’s initial phase’s projects are already finished, demonstrating how closely Beijing and Islamabad are working together. Unlike its sometimes turbulent ties with the United States, China has been Pakistan’s reliable ally. Mutual support and unflinching confidence are hallmarks of this long-lasting relationship, as evidenced by the famous proverb that characterises their friendship as “Higher than the Himalayas, Deeper than the Ocean, Sweeter than Honey, and Stronger than Steel.” The impression of China as a real friend in difficult times has been solidified as the people of Pakistan have grown to see China as a more dependable ally than the United States. The situation on the ground is complicated, notwithstanding the United States’ expressed displeasure with Pakistan’s socioeconomic and political interactions with China, especially through the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC).
The United States has expressed its worries over CPEC, calling it a possible “debt trap” and implying that Pakistan’s economy may suffer as a result of the financial strain. The geopolitical competition between the US and China, two superpowers involved in a continuous political-economic war for supremacy, is the source of this worry. The best course of action for a developing country like Pakistan caught in this tug-of-war could be to take a balanced stance, cultivating positive ties with both countries to protect its interests as a nation. In times of international conflict, like the Cold War, several nations have historically chosen to adopt a non-alignment strategy, refusing to side with either the US or the USSR. Pakistan should also seek to develop friendly political and economic ties with China and the United States. In the event that US pressure forces a decision, however, siding with China could be more advantageous for a number of reasons.
First off, China has a big interest in maintaining regional peace because of its close proximity to Pakistan, especially through its investments in the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). The US, on the other hand, is thousands of miles distant and does not have the same direct interests, so it might not be as impacted by regional instability. Second, whereas US aid has frequently been conditioned on its own geopolitical objectives, creating a more transactional relationship, China has historically supported and helped Pakistan through difficult times. Thirdly, China’s significant investment in Pakistan, especially in CPEC-related development projects, shows that it is committed to the country’s economic expansion. Beijing is eager for CPEC to succeed because it understands how closely its wealth is linked to Pakistan’s advancement.
Additionally, China has shown a preference for peaceful discussion in resolving domestic concerns including terrorism, regional dissent, and animosity against CPEC, especially with regard to the people of Baluchistan. Beijing aims to promote stability by interacting with local communities and hearing their complaints; this approach may benefit Pakistan. However, a lot of Pakistanis contend that choosing a tighter connection with China isn’t simple. The nation is nonetheless bound by Western financial organisations, especially the International Monetary Fund (IMF), which enforces US-influenced rules. Pakistan’s financial stability is largely dependent on IMF loans given its current economic circumstances, and it lacks the ability to handle its affairs without outside assistance or pay back these obligations.
Many people believe that Pakistan may experience extreme economic hardship if the IMF withdrew its help. Furthermore, even if China seems less worried about quick loan repayments, any financial support would result in a new reliance and turn Pakistan into a debtor to Beijing. Pakistan must so foster and preserve strong ties with both the US and China while steering clear of any extreme measures that can cause a negative rift between these two superpowers. As it looks to put its own economic stability and national interests first, Pakistan should ultimately try to avoid being involved in the growing tensions between the US and China, letting both countries handle their geopolitical competition on their own.