7th October of 2024 marked one year of the Gaza war as on this day Hamas launched a ground, air and naval attack on Israel, resulting in the killing of 1200 Israelis and capturing of two hundred and fifty hostages of Israeli military and civil personnel. Resultantly, Israel by playing the victim card of a terrorist attack by Hamas- although under international law, UNSC and UNGA resolutions, Israel is occupying an oppressive power- launched a full invasion of Gaza, which eventually expanded to Lebanon theatre and now a full war looms between Iran and Israel.
Horrors of war resulted in the killing of an estimated 43000 Palestinians in Gaza, most of them were women and children, and tens of thousands were displaced. Not to mention hundreds of thousands of innocent people of Gaza are being wounded. Additionally, Israel critically damaged vital infrastructure of the Gaza Strip such as hospitals, schools, universities, refugee campuses etc. on the pretext of elimination of Hamas. However, natural observers opined that most Israeli attacks are aimed at the extermination of the Gaza population, somewhat referred to as a genocidal campaign against Palestinians, rather than knocking out Hamas.
Additionally, Israeli military adventurism didn’t stop at the Gaza Strip, but expanded its operation and attacks in the West Bank, Golan Heights, Syria, Yamen and Lebanon to scale up the war, a regional war on cards. Unfortunately, despite calls for ceasefire and negotiation, Israel refused to engage in any peace talks. Contrary to that, Israel has embarked on the assassination of high-profile leaders of the axis of resistance backed by the Iranian regime. From the killing of Ismail Haniyeh to the assassination of Hasan Nasrallah, the message was clear from Israel: We don’t stop at Gaza but the ultimate goal is to drag Iran into regional war to undo the axis of resistance and the Iranian regime itself.
International experts divided on drafting the reasons behind on stretch of Israeli adventurism in the region, especially at the time of the Presidential Election in the USA. Some opined that the expansion of war theatre from Gaza could uplift the approval rating of Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu, who fears losing the election at home, and shift international focus from the suffering of the Gaza strip. Others believed a regional war could undermine the axis of resistance, which could continually pose a threat to the existence of Israel while dragging Iran into conflict could revigorate Western political, financial and military support to Israeli campaigns in the region. Israel has also misplaced hope of regime change if the USA and Iran are at war.
However, the strategic patience of Iran diminished when Israel crossed all of the brightest red lines of Iran with the assassination of Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah.
On 1st October, Iran launched almost 200 ballistic missiles towards Israel, some of which were unable to anticipate by Israel’s Iron Dome. Iran clearly stated that the country has the right to defend itself and its axis of resistance and assets in the wake of unwanted Israeli aggression and jingoism. However, Israel is thinking of attacking nuclear sites or oil facilities inside Iran in retaliation for Iranian ballistic missiles. In that response, Iran also made it clear that such provoked Israeli adventurism would be dealt with by attacking any oil facilities in the region.
Therefore, the ongoing crisis will be the perfect recipe for regional war and beyond, which has serious consequences for the global economy. Especially, in the event of attacking oil facilities, the price of oil will jump and adversely affect international trade, production and supply chains because the Persian Gulf and Arabian Peninsula have counted one-third of thermal resources- gas and petroleum- and have a potential network of international trade such as Red Sea, Persian Gulf and important chock points like Strait of Hormuz and Bab-e-Mandeb as these critical waterbodies are dominated by Iran and its proxies.
For example, Houthis- a based proxy of Iran- have engaged in launching multiple missiles towards Israelis in solidarity with Palestinians; they also blocked the shipping route of Bab-e-Mandeb, causing serious disruption in trade activities of the Red Sea. Meanwhile, the Iraq-based militia, which is backed by the Iranian regime, also hinted that any direct attack on Iran would be dealt with by attacking military bases of the USA in the country and beyond. Therefore, Iran also has many cards to play in going dogfight with Israel.
Unfortunately, during the whole course of events, relentless support of the USA has emboldened Israeli jingoism. Resultantly, the Middle East is sitting at the tender box of looming regional war which gives nothing but instability, chaos, violence and the cycle of war. Since the 7th attacks, the USA under the Biden administration has provided unabated shored-up Israeli war crimes in Gaza, in the name of self-defense of Israel- by providing political, economic, military and diplomatic approval of Netanyahu’s policies. Recently, the USA has approved a $20bn military package to Israel in support of the ongoing war, which already expanded beyond the Gaza Strip. Meanwhile, other critical components of the USA such as Congress, the Pentagon, the State Department and American mainstream media openly supported Israeli adventurism and jingoism in the Middle East, despite the fact of low approval rating of the American public for another war in the Middle East in which UAS will actively participate.
Therefore, one can easily conclude that owing to the Jewish lobby in America, US foreign policy has deeply entrenched with the strategic goals of Israel in the region. Furthermore, in the presence of American bases and troops in the Middle East, which is estimated at around 40,000, Israel knows that without the full-fledged support of the USA, Israel will be unable to beat Iran and its axis of resistance.
However, there is also a catch-22 situation for the USA as it can’t abandon its strategic partner Israel which consumes financial, and military resources and the goodwill of the USA among the international community. At the very moment, the USA has also deeply committed to Ukraine’s war against Russia, in the Eastern European theatre of war, in which Ukraine is unable to reclaim its territory from Russia despite the full support of the USA and its Western neighbors. Meanwhile, the biggest rival and strategic competitor of the USA is neither Russia nor Iran but China is reaching the zenith of economic development and modernization of Chinese troops for recapturing Taiwan and reclaiming its greater dominance and share in the South China Sea and beyond. On that front, the USA has pursued the “Indo-Pacific Policy” for economic, technological and military containment of China in that theatre of war. However, the ongoing war in the Middle East has shifted the USA’s focus from Ukraine and Indo-Pacific to the Middle East. A blessing in disguise for both Russia and China.
At the same time, Arab Sheikh Kingdoms, who have strong ties with the USA for security and economic purposes, are equally worried about the spillover effects of the ongoing crisis. Many of these kingdoms feared that Iran and its proxies might target American bases and oil facilities in their respective kingdoms which have dire consequences for their security and economies. Furthermore, most of them also fully know that their public opinion is heavily pro-Palestinian, irrespective of their age groups. And defiance shown by Iran and its Axis of resistance in favor of Arab Palestine is also seen positively by the Arab street population. In that context, KSA, UAE, and Qatar, especially those who have strong ties with Iran, are pushing hard that Arab monarchies are neutral in the ongoing crisis between Iran and Israel.
Moreover, one year of the Gaza war also evaporated much of the goodwill Abraham Accords 1.0 which set the stage for normalization among UAE, Bahrain Morocco and Israel for the exchange of economic development, technological transfer and formation of a common front against Iran. Before the eruption of the Gaza war, there is news in the air of such normalization between Israel and KSA. However, the current crisis in the Middle East has put backstep of such an initiative. And owing to pressure from Arab public opinion, most monarchies are putting their eggs in the basket of the Palestine Cause.
One-year events of the Gaza War provide many lessons. First, Palestine’s Cause is here to stand and will never diminish unless Palestinians get a sovereign and independent state. Second, Iran and its axis of resistance, despite many setbacks, will continue its efforts for the Palestine cause and their dominance in the region. Third, Israel, despite its tactical victories, will be less secure, vulnerable and more dependent on the USA shortly. Fourth, the power and influence of the USA will be plunged over time due to consuming much of its economic and military might for the impractical goal of Israeli jingoism in the region, while the USA’s war efforts in Ukraine and its containment of China will also adversely affected by unabated support of Israel. Fifth, China and Russia will be able to gain much influence in the Middle East. Lastly, UNO and its key components like UNSC, UNGA ICJ etc. unable to exact their power regarding the matter of peace and security.
Therefore, great powers of the world seem to have learned nothing from events of the past as self-determination and a viable and sovereign state of Palestine will only workable peace in the region; therefore, efforts should be made in a ceasefire of conflict while stopping Israel from engaging war crime against Palestine and regional adventurism. Meanwhile, Western powers should engage Iran and re-integrate it as a responsible state in the international community. Otherwise, geopolitical tensions, regional skirmishes, and proxy wars will threaten global peace, security and economy.