By Luke Hunt
Whether it’s on the battlefield, in an international court, or protecting criminal syndicates and their human trafficking operations, the military junta in Myanmar is under fire as world opinion gathers momentum and squares off amid a four-year bloody civil war.
Lawsuits have been launched from as far away as South America and Africa. Thailand, meanwhile — with Chinese support — has moved to counter human trafficking and scam compounds along its border while the military is losing territory to anti-regime forces.
In March 2023, then UN envoy for Myanmar, Noeleen Heyzer, told the General Assembly there was no prospect for a negotiated settlement to the civil war while the UN special rapporteur Tom Andrews described Myanmar as a “failing state.”
Two years later, their prognoses have been proven and some much-needed clarity has been added to Myanmar’s political landscape with the fate of the military and its leadership in the balance.
Legally speaking
An Argentinian court is the latest to issue arrest warrants, for 25 suspects believed involved in the 2017 genocide of the Rohingya. Military chief Gen. Min Aung Hlaing and former leader Aung San Suu Kyi, ousted by Hlaing in the 2021 coup, are among them.
This case was filed in 2019 under the principle of universal jurisdiction by the Burmese Rohingya Organisation UK. Warrants issued by the court in Buenos Aires are expected to prompt Interpol into issuing red notices against all 25.
Charges include genocide and crimes under the Argentinian penal code, including aggravated murder, sexual abuse, and torture.
Late last year, the International Criminal Court (ICC) also issued an arrest warrant for Hlaing for crimes against humanity, which were committed at least in part in Bangladesh, a signature to the Rome Statute governing the ICC which enabled the charge.
These are separate from cases in the International Court of Justice (ICJ) which was prompted by a 2019 complaint from Gambia accusing Myanmar of committing genocide against the Rohingya.
Canada, Denmark, France, Germany, the Netherlands, the UK, and The Maldives were granted an intervention order last year enabling them to contribute to the proceedings “with their perspectives on the interpretation of the Genocide Convention’s provisions.” That case is ongoing.
Additionally, Thailand has announced it would seek arrest warrants for three high-ranking officers of the Myanmar Border Guard Forces (BGF) over human trafficking charges.
Along the border
Col. Saw Chit Thu, Lt. Col. Mote Thone, and Maj. Tin Win are accused of trafficking Indian nationals who were forced to work in a call center scam operating at a casino in BGF-controlled Shwe Kokko near Myawaddy on the Thai border.
Chit Thu, an ethnic Karen warlord aligned with the junta, ran online operations, with Yatai International, owned by alleged Chinese criminal She Zhijiang, who is being held in a Bangkok prison. His defense was focused on Thailand.
“I would like to ask: what exactly have I done to Thailand that would justify such an arrest?” Chit Thu asked the BBC Burmese service. “Have I committed any acts of rebellion against Thailand?”
Human trafficking and scam compounds initially evolved to an industrialized level in Cambodia during the Covid-19 pandemic before spreading to Laos and Myanmar where they have operated with impunity along their respective borders with Thailand.
Combined they rake in about US$64 billion a year from trafficked people, mainly from across Asia, and a refusal by all three countries to crack down on the scourge has upset the Thais and the Chinese with both backing each other in recent cross-border operations.
Thailand has cut electricity, internet, and oil supplies in the border regions of Myanmar and extended its reach into Cambodia while Laos insists it is intensifying its crackdown on illegal call center operations within the Golden Triangle Special Economic Zone in Bokeo Province.
“This action comes as neighboring Thailand ramps up efforts to target scam networks operating along its borders with Myanmar and Cambodia,” the Laotian Times said.
Those operations have had some success. Last week about 260 rescued trafficking victims were flown out of Thailand, most were Chinese and reports say up to 10,000 more will be deported from Myanmar over the coming days.
On the battlefield
Scam centers and international legal efforts are just the latest blows for the military in Myanmar which is on the losing end of a civil war in its fifth year with the People’s Defence Force (PDF) and 20 ethnic armed organizations (EAOs) now in control of much of the country.
According to Armed Conflict Location & Event Data (ACLED), at least 73,069 people have died in this conflict ranking Myanmar third behind Ukraine and Palestine as the deadliest conflict out of 20 wars monitored by the US-based ACLED.
Paul Greening, an independent analyst based in Mae Sot, Thailand, says the junta controls just 15 percent of Myanmar while the EAOs and the PDF hold about 45 percent, with the balance of 40 percent still being contested.
Importantly, most of western Rakhine State has fallen to the Arakan Army (AA) which is mounting an offensive on the state capital Sittwe as EAOs and the PDF lay siege to the cultural capital of Mandalay further east.
“The battle for Sittwe has already started and when the AA takes it, it will be a big psychological boost to the revolution. There’s a very good chance the AA will take it. We will probably see India and China talking to the AA more openly for economic interests,” Greening told UCA News.
That means the military will have lost control over China’s oil and gas assets which run across Rakhine and with that, it’s limited influence with Beijing, but Greening added that Mandalay was a much harder target.
“I think Mandalay will take more time although the Mandalay PDF is making progress. More surrounding towns need to be taken first before Mandalay is surrounded and eventually taken. This will take time and if rushed could be counterproductive.”
The war in Myanmar is still being played out but the junta is under the gun — legally, morally, and militarily — from within and without. Its days are numbered.
source : ucanews