By Sabria Chowdhury Balland
On April 23, 2023, India decided for the first time to suspend its participation in the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT). This treaty was brokered in 1960 by the World Bank to administer the sharing of water of the Indus River systems, essential for Pakistan, which receives 80% of its drinking and agricultural supply of water from this river system.
India’s decision was based on the April 22, 2025 terrorist attack in Pahalgam, in India administered Kashmir, in which 26 civilians were killed. According to India, the suspension of the treaty will be valid until Pakistan ends its support for terrorism, a claim for which it has yet to provide any proof.
It must be mentioned that the possibility that the terrorist attack which led to this latest escalation could be a false flag operation orchestrated by the Indian foreign intelligence agency, the Research and Analysis Wing (RAW) cannot be ignored. The agency has, on many occasions, orchestrated false flag operations to destabilize Kashmir and Balochistan, for instance. RAW false flag operations to create civil unrest are a common occurrence in Bangladesh, also, the goal being to impose unwanted Indian hegemony in South Asia.
In this unilateral revocation of the IWT, India has essentially declared war on Pakistan with its draconian decision to choose to block such an essential water supply to its neighbor. The latter calls this suspension of water “an act of war”.
The Nuclear aspect and the IAEA
Every few years, these two nuclear powered countries arrive at loggerheads and every few years, there is global panic over an escalation which could lead to a nuclear confrontation. What is extremely concerning and troubling about this, apart from the escalation itself, is that neither country is a signatory to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), which could limit their engagement with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA)’s complete safeguards program. The IAEA is a United Nations agency which focuses on the promotion of peaceful nuclear energy and the prevention of nuclear power for military use. The fact that the IAEA plays a limited role in the nuclear stockpiles of Pakistan and India is deeply worrisome on a global scale.
An extremely significant detail to highlight is that a nuclear war between Pakistan and India could cause extreme nuclear winter conditions as far away as the heartland of the United States for instance, destroying agriculture caused by nuclear winter leading to famine, along with other very harsh global consequences.
Retired Colonel Lawrence Wilkerson, former Chief of Staff to the United States Secretary of State Colin Powell pointed out yet another very concerning aspect of the nuclear armaments of Pakistan and India. He pointed out that neither country’s armed forces had “done a lot of thinking about escalation theory.” Military escalation theory examines the deliberate and unintentional escalation of conflicts.