PRANAY SHARMA
NEW DELHI — A new coalition government came to power in Nepal when pro-China leader K. P. Sharma Oli of the Communist Party of Nepal (Unified Marxist-Leninist) and Sher Bahadur Deuba, an ally of India, of the Nepali Congress entered into a power-sharing agreement to amend the constitution to change the electoral system and bring stability to the country.
Oli was appointed prime minister on Sunday, a few days after his predecessor, Pushpa Kamal Dahal, lost a parliamentary vote of confidence and was ousted. The new coalition came to power on Monday.
Nepal has a mixed electoral system — partly proportional representation and partly first-past-the-post — to elect members to parliament. This system was brought in to encourage federalism and ensure representation for minorities and marginalized groups, including women, Dalits, and Muslims. But the big political parties feel this gives smaller parties too much power and opportunity to shift allegiances, contributing to instability.
The current system was adopted after a new constitution was written in 2015 and brought into force two years later. Now the bigger parties are demanding a constitutional amendment to create a first-past-the-post voting system that would curb the power of small parties and, they argue, ensure political stability.
“The decision to amend the constitution is an admission that Nepal’s experiment with federalism failed,” said commentator Yubaraj Ghimire. “The 2015 constitution was rushed through without debate or consultation, and its weakness is now coming to the fore,” he added.
But other experts fear moving to amend the constitution may open questions on sensitive issues like declaring Nepal a Hindu rashtra (polity), and restoring the monarchy. Both were scrapped when Nepal became a republic in 2008.
“Tampering with the constitution is risky, as it can bring up other contentious issues, including the demand for a Hindu rashtra,” said Ranjit Rae, a former Indian ambassador to Nepal.
The country’s 240-year-old Hindu monarchy was abolished in May 2008 as part of a peace agreement between the Maoist rebels and democratic forces that ended an 11-year insurgency.
“The demand was to take back power from King Gyanendra’s attempt to turn into an absolute monarch and restore constitutional monarchy, not to abolish monarchy,” said Ghimire. Many people in Nepal see the monarchy as a source of stability in Nepal and believe it should be restored, he added.
Rae, on the other hand, cautions that if the constitution is amended in a way that negates the achievements from 2008 onward, it could lead to broad protests in Nepal. “Opening the constitution is like kicking a hornet’s nest as more issues will tumble out, including the demand for a Hindu rashtra and restoration of the monarchy,” he said. “Such a situation can pose a huge challenge not only for Nepal but also India.”
Oli and Deuba have collaborated in past governments. But their coming together amid heightened rivalry between India and China, which are jostling for influence in Nepal and South Asia, has surprised many. Skeptics doubt the longevity of the new political arrangement. “Nepal is yet to develop a culture for running coalition governments,” said Lokraj Baral, a veteran commentator and former Nepalese ambassador to India.
In March, Oli supported Maoist leader Pushpa Kamal Dahal, popularly known as Prachanda, to become prime minister in an all-communist party coalition government. But in early July he struck a deal with Deuba and withdrew his support from Prachanda. The Maoist leader has used similar tactics against rivals in the past to seize the prime minister’s chair.
Since multiparty democracy was introduced in Nepal in 1990, the country has had 32 governments.
Rae, the former Indian diplomat, pointed out the two big parties’ collaboration may bring stability in parliament for a while but it will not bring fundamental change.
The pro-China Oli has had strained relations with India in the past but realizes he needs the support of both India and China to survive. He has already reached out to New Delhi, seeking support for a stable and fruitful partnership.
Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi was quick to congratulate Oli, posting on Monday on X, “Look forward to working closely to further strengthen the deep bonds of friendship between our two countries and to further expand our mutually beneficial cooperation for the progress and prosperity of our peoples.”
China had been quick to welcome the all-communist party coalition government of Prachanda in March. It has not commented on the new dispensation, although it is widely believed that Oli will soon reach out to China.
Oli and Deuba both face multiple corruption charges, ranging from allegations of kickbacks on Chinese projects and defense deals to the “Bhutanese refugee” scandal in which senior politicians and government officials issued fake documents to get Nepalese resettled in the U.S. by allowing them to pose as Bhutanese refugees.
Observers think the two leaders will be able to slow the ongoing investigations while in government. “It is the issue of corruption, not any ideology, that has brought them together,” said K. V. Rajan, a former secretary of the Indian Ministry of External affairs who also served in Nepal as India’s ambassador.
The current arrangement allows Oli and Deuba to take turns as prime minister for the remainder of the current parliamentary term, which ends in November 2027. There is no guarantee, however, that this will bring stability.
The prospect of political tension in Nepal is cause for concern for both India and China, the two big investors in the country. India has an open border that allows free movement of people and goods from Nepal. Between 3 million and 4 million Nepalese nationals study, live and work in India under a 1950 friendship treaty, according to Nepali official reports. Nepal has a total population of about 29 million.
China has also made big investments in Nepal and wants to wrap up its projects in the country under the Belt and Road Initiative. Instability in Nepal jeopardizes those projects and threatens to destabilize Tibet, which borders the country.
“Oli has kept his options open with the U.S. as well, and many in his ranks are supporters of the ‘free Tibet’ movement,” said Ghimire.
Indian observers think there may be a problem for New Delhi when the time comes for Oli to hand over the reins to Deuba. “If Oli decides to hang on to power, he will fall back on China for support. And he can reopen contentious issues with India like the boundary dispute and play the nationalist card to garner support in Nepal,” said Rajan.
source : asia.nikkei