These are unprecedented times. In another major escalation, on Friday, Israel heavily traded airstrikes on the capital of Lebanon -Beirut- and news came out soon that Hassan Nasrallah, the chief political leader of Hezbollah and religious figurehead, assassinated on 26th September 2024. The assassination of Nasrallah was a major blow to the rank and file of Hezbollah, although many experts viewed that Hezbollah was unlikely to crumble under the weight of the killing of Nasrallah.
Hezbollah, one of the key proxies of the Iranian regime, operates on the soil of Lebanon and is largely a byproduct of the Lebanon-Israel war of the 1980s and Lebanon civil war that started in late 1970s. Since taking leadership of Hezbollah in the early 1990s, Nasrallah has largely maintained strong and close ties with the Iranian regime for its financial, logistics and arms support.
However, the pinnacle moment came in the life of Nasrallah in 2006 when he defied and showed resistance to Israel when Israel siege control of Beirut for three months. Since then, he has popularized among Lebanon’s population, especially Lebanon Shias, and beyond. And he has made one of the brutal and worst enemies of Israel.
Since the 7th October attacks, Israel launched a major attack against Hamas in Gaza, claiming the lives of 43,000-70pc of them are women and children- and blowing up critical infrastructure like hospitals and schools. And then Hezbollah reopened another front in North Lebanon to create easiness for Hamas which has been bracing for a major assault of the Israeli war machine. Since April 2024, Israel has been involved in the assassination of high-profile leaders of the Iranian-backed regime. From bombardment of the Iranian Consulate in Damascus to the killing of Ismail Haniyeh- and now Hassan Nasrallah.
These high-profile assassinations indicate that Israel has zero interest in initiating a ceasefire with Gaza and embarking on an escalation of war, wanting to spread the war into a wider region of the Middle East for tactical and strategic purposes. The tactical purpose of Israel is removing packets of resistance from the West Bank, Gaza, Lebanon, Syria and beyond who are critically backing Palestine Cause, a threat to the state of Israel. This also reflects that Israel has no interest in implementing the two-state solution to the conflict- which is also backed by the USA, one of the strongest and long-lasting allies of Israel. The long-term strategic goal of Israel for widening the conflict is to weaken the Iranian-backed regime and network in the Middle East, showing their proxies that Iran is a weak contender for Power in the region.
On the other hand, Iran has shown strategic patience over these extrajudicial activities of Israel. Not long ago, Hamas chief political leader Ismail Haniyeh was killed on Iranian soil in late July 2024 and Iran has not taken any major retaliation attack against Israel. And now it’s turns for Nasrallah, who was much more vital for Tehran than Haniyeh. Key insiders believed that Tehran showed hesitation on retaliation option due to avoiding of war into Iranian soil. Others opined that Tehran lacked the political will and capacity to show deterrence and retaliation against the onslaught of Israeli provocation. Whatever the reasons for not retaliation, Israel and the world view this as a major weakness on the part of Tehran who is globally isolated, having few friends on an international level, technological inferiority and now involving a war at the behest of Russia in Ukraine.
Meanwhile, the USA, a key ally of Israel, has become the largest supporter of the ongoing onslaught of Israel against the People of Palestine in the name of “self-defense of Israel” and the elimination of Hamas. It is worth noting that after the killing of Nasrullah, the Biden Administration once again came to the limelight and pledged the full support of Israel and joined Israel shoulder to shoulder if war could break out between Israel and Iran. Both Trump and Harris, leading candidates for the American presidential election on 5th November repeatedly pledge their full support of Israel’s war crime against humanity and the innocent civilian population of Gaza. This also shows how much deep penetration of Jewish and Israeli lobby has existed in the White House, Congress, Pentagon and State Department where Israel continues to enjoy bipartisan support from both republican and democratic parties. Famous American Professor John Mearsheimer rightly pointed out in his book “The Israel Lobby and USA Foreign Policy” that the real power of Tel Aviv lies in Washington through which it gains maximum political, economic, diplomatic and military support.
However, on the public front, despite having the strongest lobby group, Israel has been losing support from the general public in the USA. From university campuses to people’s streets in America, people across religions, races, colors and creeds come together in favor of Palestine’s Cause of self-determination in the form of a sovereign Palestine state where the people of Palestine enjoy every right of rights. Various reports indicate that the approval rate of Israel has dropped to 49pc since the onslaught of Israel against Palestine. These trends are also the same record in other Western countries and some Western countries, like Spain and Norway, have recognized the state of Palestine.
On the other hand, despite possibly the strongest support from Western capitals and winning tactical battles, Israel has been losing major international repute at UNGA and failing before ICJ and ICC. Last month, in another major development, the UNGA adopted a resolution to end the ongoing war in Gaza and leave those territories that are internationally recognized as part of Palestine within a year. Additionally, in the latest judgment of ICJ, Israel has been called an illegal occupier force who unlawfully settled and maintained occupation in Palestinian lands. Amnesty International, the largest watchdog of human rights, called Israel an apartheid state even worse than South Africa. And Global South, although fragmented and less powerful bloc, has consistently raised its voice for the Palestine Cause.
The above developments also clearly reflect that despite the Israeli genocide war against Palestine, the support for resistance against Palestine Cause will not die in the long run without a proper settlement of the Conflict. Meanwhile, experts also believe that despite the loss of charismatic leaders by Hamas and Hezbollah, both proxies will not diminish and will not lose its footprint in the Middle East. And there is also the possibility of having more hardliner leaders at the top of these militant organizations now, which could destabilize and jeopardize the entire Middle East.
Nevertheless, one of the pro-Iranian X accounts which has thousands of hundreds of followers accepted openly that Iran and its proxies miscalculated the potential risk and repercussions of Israel’s war plans and execution; therefore, the Iranian regime and its proxies suffered the most in the short run, and having no proper plans for retaliation against Israeli onslaught and support of Palestine Cause as Iranian regime own existence come into question. However, Iran Is neither Hamas nor Hezbollah as the country is equipped with modern weapons, manpower, possible nuclear angle, and powerful backing of Russia and China. Therefore, taking directly on Iran by Israel will be doomsday for the entire Middle East and beyond.
It is also interesting to take account of the role of China and Russia in the ongoing crisis. Experts viewed that both countries have enhanced their leverage in the Middle East since the outbreak of the Gaza war on 7th October 2023. Both countries repeatedly criticized American imperialist policies in the Middle East that strengthened the hands of Israel. Interestingly, Russia and China are taking the lead in carrying out the efforts of ceasefire at UNSC. And it was China inked a major deal between Hamas and Fatah in Beijing to join hands together for the common cause of Palestine. However, western experts believe that both Russia and China are supporting Iran and its proxies in conflict due to prolonging the conflict to divide USA attention on Ukraine and Indo-Pacific policy where the USA has bent on containing the expansionist influence of Russia and China respectively.
Meanwhile, the Arab world, once the USA hoped that normalization with Israel is nearest close seems to be a distant dream due to the killing of a large number of civilian populations of Gaza. All the goodwill generated by Abraham Accord 1.0 (2020) which led normalization of UAE, Bahrain, and Morocco could not further transform into normalization between KSA and Israel and later on the non-Arab Muslim world. In the latest interview, MBS, the crown prince of KSA, made it clear that there is no chance of normalization with Israel without the establishment of the sovereign and independent state of Palestine, having borders of the pre-1967 war. That was a major blow to the American establishment which was hoping for normalization between Israel and KSA for the exchange of a civil nuclear deal, financial gains, transfer of military technology and formation of a common front against Iran and its proxies. All hopes have now been thrown into the dustbin.
Therefore, one could say that despite the tactical winning of Israel due to USA backing and its strong technological superiority and deep penetration into the Middle East, in longer run, Israel has to accept the self-determination of Palestinians due to overwhelming support in Global South and now also gaining ground support in Global North. The USA has lost much of its goodwill and reputation among the international community due to continual support of Israel’s brutal campaign against Palestinians and aggressive strikes in neighboring countries. Meanwhile, despite losing popular and charismatic leaders, Iranian proxies would stay intact in future due to popular support and Iranian backing.