Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi speaks during a rally at a stadium in Kashmir on March 7, as his bodyguard looks on. © Reuters
NEW DELHI — India’s ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is not fielding election candidates in Kashmir for the first time in nearly three decades, underscoring a “trust deficit” in the conflict-wracked region, analysts say.
The decision to skip Kashmir’s three seats altogether comes as voting in the latest round of India’s national polls get underway Monday with official results expected in early June. Prime Minister Narendra Modi is widely tipped to win a third term in power at the helm of the world’s biggest democracy.
Modi says his government is moving to end violence in Muslim-majority Kashmir with a focus on jobs and development. But the popularity of the BJP, which lost Kashmir’s three seats in the 2019 election, appears to have slid even more after it yanked the region’s autonomy status the same year.
That decision sparked anger in the northern Indian territory where some 40,000 people have been killed in a separatist insurgency since the early 1990s, punctuated by allegations of rights abuses.
“Apparently the [BJP] was not sure of winning and they did not want to take the risk of facing embarrassment despite [the Modi government] taking up a large number of developmental works, … controlling terrorism to a large extent and improving the security situation,” Ajay Kaul, a longtime Kashmir watcher and editor-in-chief of the United News of India, told Nikkei Asia.
The BJP and its allies are contesting every other part of India during the six-week election as they look to secure a majority of 543 parliamentary seats.
With the BJP officially sitting out Kashmir’s polls, the contest falls to several regional parties including National Conference (NC) and People’s Democratic Party (PDP), which oppose Modi’s BJP and its Hindu nationalist leanings.
Both are part of the Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance, or INDIA, comprising over two dozen parties that joined forces last year in a bid to topple the BJP. But the two Kashmiri parties are rivals at the local level.
“The BJP suffers from trust deficit [in Kashmir],” said Ullekh N.P., author of “War Room: The People, Tactics and Technology Behind Narendra Modi’s 2014 Win.” “Secondly, they may be happy that the NC and PDP are fighting against each other.”
Women watch an election campaign rally in the Kashmiri capital Srinagar on May 8. India’s national polls will wrap up in early June. © ReutersKashmir is divided into Indian and Pakistani-controlled regions, though both nuclear-armed neighbors claim it in full and have fought two of their three wars since independence from British rule in 1947 over the territory.
The Indian portion’s special status had limited jobs and property purchases to local residents. As a result of the 2019 autonomy repeal, the former state of Jammu and Kashmir was split into two federally governed territories — Muslim-majority Kashmir and mostly Hindu Jammu, along with Ladakh, where most residents are Muslim or Buddhist. This election, the BJP is vying for three seats in Jammu and Ladakh, which it won in 2019.
Just before Kashmir’s status decision five years ago, top local politicians were placed under house arrest and the internet was suspended in the heavily militarized region.
In early March, Modi made his first appearance in Kashmir since scrapping its special status, dangling new economic development programs just ahead of the election.
“Jammu and Kashmir is rapidly moving forward on the path of development,” Modi told some 30,000 people gathered at a stadium in regional capital Srinigar. “I’m working hard to win your hearts.”
However, PDP President Mehbooba Mufti pointed to the loss of Kashmir’s status as a tipping point for the ruling party.
“[Since the repeal], not a day passes by when a [decree] isn’t issued in Delhi to disempower & dispossess the people of J&K [Jammu and Kashmir],” Mufti said on social media last week. “PDP has fought this onslaught against our rights, resources & identity & will continue doing so in a peaceful democratic manner.”
Still, Kashmir watcher Kaul said Modi’s party may not be completely out of the picture. “It is believed that some newly-floated parties are the proxies of the BJP,” he said.
Last month, the BJP’s regional chief Ravinder Raina hinted at such a tactic, saying “patriotic” parties could count on its support.
“Sometimes big decisions are made keeping in mind bigger goals,” he told reporters. “Even though we have not fielded our candidates, the winner will be the one who will have the support of the BJP.”
source : asia.nikkei