An era of fifty year of oppression, subjection and suppression by the Al-Assad family came to an end on December 8, 2024, by a group of Sunni-led militant forces, mainly headed by Abu Mohammed al-Jolani under the umbrella of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS). Remarkably, within the span of eleven days, Damascus was liberated from a tyrant dictator by (ironically) another extremist and fundamental anti-Assad forces. And, now, unsurprisingly, ouster Assad and his family have been granted asylum in Russia, which was once the critical ally of Assad’s regime.
Since the 7th of October 2023, the day when Hamas launched a surprise attack on Israel, the Middle East changed forever, and the latest developments in Syria should be visited from the implications of the Gaza war. Since 1971, Syria has been under the tight control of the Assad family, at that time it was ruled by Hafez al-Assad who belonged to the Alawite sect, one of the break-way branches of Shia Islam, although the majority of Syria population has Sunni faith. His rule was also marked by oppression and subjection of the Sunni population of the country, although the ruling party- the Ba’ath Party claimed to be a Syrian nationalist and secular party; therefore, the seeds of rebellion and discomfort started in the early 1980s. However, with the turn of the 21st century, and the change of command fell on the shoulder of Bashar al-Assad, he was no different than his father when it came to political subjection and economic coercion of the majority of the Sunni Population.
The Real task came in the life of Assad when he stuck with Arab Spring (2011) in Syria where protestors demanded democracy and human rights for Syria, despite his brutal tactics against protests, it was with the help of Iran, that he was able to survive, but it also resulted in Civil war in Syria where many Sunni led militant groups challenging the authority of Assad regime.
At first place, Iran through the help of surviving the Assad regime sought a strategic purpose for strengthening the so-called “axis of resistance” network, as it is critical for Tehran to continual weapons, information and men supplies to Hezbollah and Hamas based in Lebanon and Gaza Strip to weaken the state of Israel. Without Syria on the chessboard of the Iranian side, the network of that supply chain can’t run smoothly for a long period. Therefore, the post-2011 pro-Syrian Assad regime was a strategic asset for Tehran and its axis of resistance.
The same story goes for Russia. Under President Putin, who wanted to expand its power and demonstrate Russian military might across the mainland of Europe, Russia found an ally in Syria. For his gunpowder, the Assad regime was able to hold a strong grip on power. In return, Russia got what it wanted: a naval airbase across the coastal belt of the Mediterranean Sea of Syria, a symbol of Russian power and might in the region.
So, what’s a change in the equation for the last eleven days? Which resulted in the ending of 24 years of Assad family rule over Syria. First, since the 7th October 2023 attacks, Iran and its proxies have been under severe attack from Israel and its allies, which resulted in the decapitalization of the top leadership of Hezbollah and Hamas, along with the destruction of critical infrastructure. Not to forget that many intelligence reports claimed, that in October 2024, Hezbollah was at its lowest due to loss of top leadership and destruction of critical weapons. The same happened with Hamas, which not only lost its top leadership but was unable to generate credible support from Hezbollah and Tehran. Israel’s attacks on critical assets and pro-Iranian leadership across the Middle East led towards a humiliation for Tehran, although Tehran tried to respond with a direct attack on Israel without establishing any considerable loss or détente between both countries. So, the Gaza war greatly damaged Tehran and its axis of resistance, which caused a great loss for the Assad regime which greatly depended upon Tehran and Hezbollah. With Tehran and Hezbollah in ruin, Syrian rebels saw an opportunity to topple Assad from power, and with no support from Tehran and Hezbollah, eventually, Assad had to run from Syria.
Second, another big brother of the Assad regime is Russia which has been busy fighting with Ukraine since 24th Feb 2022. Much of its manpower, weapons and attention is focused on battling with the Ukrainian front. Syrian rebels felt that President Putin’s hand with Ukraine and the Russian air force wouldn’t be able to help the Assad regime as it did in 2015. So, again, without Russian support, the continuous of Assad regime in Damascus.
Third, in the absence of Tehran and Moscow, Israel sought an advantage in the evolving situation in Syria. Intelligence reports claimed that the help of Mossad and the CIA, who provided financial, weaponry and logistic support to Syrian rebels played a critical role in toppling the Assad regime. Israel is a master at playing sectarian and Arab cards with these broken countries to divide it further, otherwise, these countries and rebel groups might unite together against Israel for the Palestinian cause and self-determination.
And, let’s talk about the repercussions of ending the Assad Regime in Syria. At first, the biggest loser of this scenario was Tehran which lost a critical ally in the region which was of strategic importance for maintaining its influence and continuing supply-chain to Hezbollah and Hamas. And now Syria is gone, so the future of the entire network of axis of resistance hangs in the balance. The outcome of this evolving situation in Syria is also a setback to Hamas and Palestinian resistance because, without Syria, Tehran can’t help both financially and militarily to the Palestinian struggle against the jingoism of Israel, which has killed almost 45,000 civilian Palestinians since 7th October 2023. The third loser of this outcome is Russia whose naval bases in the Syrian coastal line can’t function smoothly without the support of Assad, and it is a great loss for Russian pride too!
The natural winner of this outcome is Israel who saw it as a major victory for breaking the entire supply chain of the axis of resistance, which poses a threat to the state of Israel. However, despite the hopeful scenario of Israel, do these religious fundamentalists never turn to Israel? Besides Israel, Turkey also saw a tactical victory here because of removing the Assad regime which was unwilling to back Syrian refugees from Turkey. One can assume that Turkey wants to see a safe zone near the Syrian border where it can dump Syrian refugees. The USA and other Western countries still trying to figure out what to do with the evolving scenario in Syria as they designated most Syrian rebels and their organizations as terrorists.
For Syrians, this could be a fresh start from the suffering of oppression of Assad Regime under the umbrella of other fundamentalist and sectarian groups. With opposing sides and ideologies of different leaders and the sectarian history of Syria, the fresh start of Syria can’t turn into a democratic republic, free from the yoke of oppression and subjection.