by Muhammad Bilal Nazir 10 November 2023
When the British left sub-continent, they gave option to princely states to either remain independent or join Pakistan or India through signing instrument of accession. The princely state of Jammu and Kashmir, a Muslim majority state was ruled by a non-Muslim Maharaja Hari Singh. Ignoring the wishes of majority, the ruler decided to sign instrument of accession with India. The legality of such instrument of accession without the backing of the majority of population remains highly questionable. The war that followed saw the princely state divided in two parts. The UN got ceasefire brokered between the two countries and till date the dispute is not resolved.
Pakistan regards Kashmir dispute as the core issue with India, whereas India regards Kashmir as its inalienable part. Both countries claim the state in entirety whereas Pakistan supports the idea of giving right to self-determination as per the UN charter to the people of Kashmir that was dually agreed by India after the first Kashmir war. Such referendum has not happened and under the circumstances will never happen. It is the abject failure of the Pakistani’s diplomacy at the United Nations (UN) that so for the country has terribly failed to garner support for tabling any resolution under the Chapter 7 of the UN Charter.
It is futile to see whether military means can deliver resolution of this dispute for either of the country after repeated wars. Different military operations carried out by Pakistan have terribly failed to achieve desired objectives. Since Pakistan and India have become nuclear weapon states, under the nuclear overhang even conventional military conflict restricted within the boundaries of disputed territories can be ruled out. Pakistan cannot sustain this stalemate indefinitely. Among different elements of power, economy and manpower is very important for the rise of the nation. Among South Asian countries, India is developing fast and among the leading developing economies of the world. As economic might of India is increasing, expansion of military might is only natural. Rising economic and military powers become hardened on their stance with respect to territorial disputes. Rising nationalism in India has brought right-wing Bhartiya Janta Party (BJP) in power that has further emboldened the nationalist sentiments. On the other hand, economic base of Pakistan is constantly shrinking and even in long term given the size of country and other elements of power, Pakistan will be able to match the power of India.
Only after the blunt realization by the military and political leaders in both India and Pakistan, conducive environment can be created whereby legalizing the status quo remains only option if this dispute must be resolved for good. Already the irregular warfare operations have failed, and full-blown conventional war will not stay confined within the disputed territory ultimately resulting in nuclear exchange between the two countries thus defeating the purpose of war in the first place.
We need to look at different plans operationalized by Pakistan’s military that failed to achieve desired military and political objectives. Lacking in conventional military strength vis a vis India, natural military option for Pakistan was to take irregular warfare operations in disputed territory of Jammu and Kashmir controlled by India without having full blown war at the international border. Despite popular narrative that military establishment has created around the 1965 war between India and Pakistan, the real facts remain for rational people to sift through the layers of self-sustaining false narrative. It was only the consequence of irregular military operation code named Operation Gibraltar that India was facing military defeat in the disputed territory of Kashmir. Indian attack on the international border was only logical military strategy to ease the pressure in the disputed territory. It remains fact that Pakistan only settled after the war because of territorial losses in disputed territory that both countries agreed to return each other’s territory and go back to situation before war. Kargil War was just repetition of failed irregular military strategy by Pakistan during Operation Gibraltar. As both countries conducted nuclear tests just before the conflict, only positive outcome was that this war did not erupt on international borders because of nuclear deterrence.
The sole beneficiary of ongoing territorial dispute with India is the military establishment of Pakistan. As a result of direct military rule and indirect political manufacturing, the military establishment has developed such strong narrative around unwinnable conflict that no political leader dares to start meaningful peace dialogue with India fearing political rout and dubbed as traitors. Its only because of conflict with India that military establishment of Pakistan has amassed so much power in Pakistan.
Spending considerable amount of budget on unwinnable conflict of Jammu and Kashmir is not rational policy for economic miseries of Pakistan. Failure of diplomatic and military options mean that Pakistan must look for pre-emptive legitimization of status quo sooner than later. Under the circumstances, Pakistan can only look for long term settlement of water rights for being low riparian state. Repeating the unrealistic demand of right to self-determination for the people of Kashmir is futile. Time for looking realistic territorial settlement through legitimizing of status quo is long overdue. Given the past failures of military failures and rising power of India, no military general in Pakistan can hypothetically guarantee freedom for the people of Kashmir through military operation. Only reasonable solution to this unending conflict is seeking legitimization of territorial holdings by both countries. For Pakistan, it must seek some wisdom from Thucydides who said in his book History of the Peloponnesian War centuries ago “The strong do what they can and the weak suffer what they must”.