The House of Cards in Afghanistan has fallen apart because of escalating internal divisions within the ranks of the Afghan Taliban. The ideological and pragmatic leadership of the Afghan Taliban are divided between Kandahar and Kabul groups. Since the fall of Kabul before the Afghan Taliban in August 2021, Afghanistan’s government, economy and society have been largely driven by the Kandahar group under the command of Mullah Hibatullah Akhundzada who is known as a hardliner among Taliban ranks.
Mullah Hibatullah Akhundzada, the supreme leader of Afghanistan, has proven to be an exclusive, and isolationist leader; he was a vocal opponent of girl education and restricted women’s opportunities in an economic and educational realm which also drew criticism across the globe. However, it is worth noting that the pragmatic leadership of the Afghan Taliban are opponents of such measures of Mullah Hibatullah Akhundzada, but remain helpless to overturn his exclusive policy.
Many analysts falsely believe that Taliban leadership has provided much political stability in the country. But reality strikes the opposite as much of the stability comes from American humanitarian and economic support to the regime. For instance, during the Biden Administration, Afghanistan received around $40 million per week for running day-to-day government affairs. And when the incumbent American administration led by President Trump announced to suspension USAID program across the globe, including Afghanistan, the Taliban faced a strategic dilemma of how to run the administration without foreign assistance and aid. The natural outcome of the suspension of American aid is increasing infighting of the Afghan Taliban rank.
Moreover, the Taliban’s Afghanistan has strained relations with every neighboring country, especially with Pakistan. The relations between Pakistan and Afghanistan have become fractured on the issue of Pakistan Taliban which has become the prime source of terrorism in the western part of Pakistan, mainly in KPK and Balochistan. Pakistan’s top civilian and military leadership officially blamed the Afghan Taliban for sponsoring logistic, financial and arms support to TTP as the country has faced 70pc increase in terrorist attacks in the year 2024 which claimed around 1000 lives. Meanwhile, Afghan Taliban leadership is calling TTP an internal matter of Pakistan and insists the peace talks with them instead of launching a military operation.
However, many international reports confirm that the Afghan Taliban and Pakistan Taliban have robust ideological, ethical and common goals as they are different sides of the same coin. Therefore, the deadlock remains between Pakistan’s leadership and the Afghanistan Taliban on the issue of TTP, which forces Pakistan to impose some harsh measures against the Afghan Taliban to exert pressure on the issue of the Afghan Taliban. Air strikes against TTP inside Afghanistan, economic restrictions and expulsion of Afghan Refugees are prime tactics used by Pakistan to mould the stubborn behaviour of the Afghan Taliban.
Meanwhile, the presence of transactional terrorist groups in Afghanistan and the ideological mindset of exclusive leadership of the Kandahar group would not go well off with establishing strategic and long-lasting relations with China and India. For instance, China has long desired to build the mining sector of Afghanistan in the hope of extracting rare earth minerals, besides using the geographical location of Afghanistan for transit and trade routes by extension of CPEC into Afghanistan. However, growing ideological and hardliner views of the Afghan Taliban are not seen positively in China because of the potential threat of growing separatism and militancy in Xinjiang, an autonomous region of China dominated by the Uyghur community. Owing to the presence of transnational terrorist groups in Afghanistan, there is a strong chance of the revival of the East Turkmenistan Islamic Movement, a potential threat unity of China. In that scenario, there is no chance of establishing comprehensive ties between Kabul and Beijing because of the ideological approach of the Afghan Taliban.
On the other hand, there are some high-level contacts between India and Afghanistan at the diplomatic level because of the growing hot tension in Kabul with Islamabad. However, converting some meetings into comprehensive and strategic relations is a daunting task. The sole factor of having trouble relations with Islamabad will not work for building strong ties between Kabul and New Delhi. For example, on the issue of human rights and women’s education, India has expressed her disapproval many times. India also expresses concerns about the growing presence of transnational terrorist groups in Afghanistan which pose a direct threat to the national security of India. Some other daunting issues also exist such as a low level of trust as since the fall of Kabul into Afghan Taliban hands, most of the diplomatic and economic support by India in Afghanistan has been withdrawn.
Meanwhile, the new administration in America appears to be hostile towards the Afghan Taliban. For instance, Tech Billionaire Elon Musk, who is a close ally of President Trump, has raised concerns about the inflow of American taxpayer money into Taliban hands. He wondered how foolishly the Biden administration gave millions of American dollars to the Afghan Taliban which they used for harbingering terrorist activities and suppressing women’s empowerment in the country. Some inside intelligence reports also suggest that the American administration is willing to overthrow the Afghan Taliban by throttling its financial support. This reflects that the American administration will go tough on the Afghan Taliban in the coming days.
The internal division within the ranks of the Afghan Taliban and worsening relations with neighboring countries show that the Afghan Taliban are in troubled waters. And the only chief reason behind it is the exclusive ideology of Taliban leadership, mainly based in Kandahar. The exclusive and alienated mentality of the Taliban will not provide much-needed political and economic stability in the country and naturally will not be suitable for conducting smooth functioning of foreign affairs outside the country. Therefore, the Afghan Taliban must shun their exclusive ideology and embrace an inclusive political and economic framework which allows the growth and prosperity of all communities, including women. And don’t allow the grouping and working of transnational terrorist groups within Afghan soil which is a prerequisite for conducting smooth running of foreign relations with other countries.