Afsan Chowdhury, August 23, 2019
Indian Foreign Minister S. Jaishankar’s two-day visit to Bangladesh as part of his inaugural travels in South Asia was a fairly low-key affair.
Although the visit came at a time when the situation in the region in general was more troubled than what India’s neighbors would like it to be, there were no fireworks in the media.
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Addressing the media, Jaishankar did not indulge in big claims of friendship either. He mentioned the achievements, — land ports, border security etc. — but also dwelt on the more prickly ones, the Teesta waters treaty and the Assam illegal migrants issue.
Bi-lateral issues and India’s internal policy
Jaishankar said that India is committed to Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s promise to reach a solution on Teesta during Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) rule. On the Assam infiltrators issue — in response to a question — he said that it is “an internal matter of India”. On the Teesta river waters, it was obviously a non-committal promise as he didn’t explain why India’s promise was not fulfilled in Modi’s first term and how it will happen in the next. The stumbling block is obviously Mamata Banerjee, West Bengal Chief Minister.
The response to the question on Assam did little to allay fears in Dhaka. It is possible that such matters will be discussed at the Prime Ministers’ level talks in October. In the wake of Kashmir, where another internal problem of India had been dealt with and causing discomfort in the region, the issue has the potential to cause discomfort in Bangladesh.
Meanwhile, not surprisingly, Kashmir has started to fade away though the insecurity in the smaller South Asian countries will probably not disappear too quickly.
This sense of insecurity has been caused by regional power asymmetry. The key state in the region is India which is so much bigger than all the others. This makes normal relations almost impossible. It is within this arrangement in which India was secure for long that China has also stepped in creating a rivalry of sorts with India.
Assam: internal problem, external impact?
In the case of Assam’s “illegal Muslim-Bangladeshi” migrants, the next step is more central. India has declared it as an internal issue. But the massive energy and expenditure to confirm citizenship can’t be an academic or pressure building exercise only. And since they have already been identified as “illegal immigrants” who are specifically Muslims and coming from Bangladesh, the destination of such people is obvious also. Does Bangladesh have a plan to cope?
Bangladesh showed during the Rohingya crisis that it was unprepared. Why that is so after two major expulsions – 1977- 1992 — is unclear. Rohingyas lost their Myanmar citizenship in 1984 meaning these people were inevitable passengers for another trip to Bangladesh. But Bangladesh never got ready. All security and foreign office lips are sealed on this question.
But the problem hasn’t gone away. Dr. A.K. Abdul Momen, the Foreign Minister of Bangladesh, when asked about Assam, reacted by saying that they had never thought about it much as it was India’s internal problem. As it is, Bangladesh is almost overwhelmed by the 11 lakh Rohingyas. If that is the situation, what will happen if another 40 lakhs arrive?
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Jayshankar made the obvious diplomatic noises about supporting Bangladesh on the Rohingya issue but when the Rohingyas arrived in 2017, India didn’t stand by Bangladesh. Obviously, they had other priorities including trade and support to North Eastern insurgent pacification by Myanmar in mind.
Key future issues on Assam
Key issues of the unfolding scenario in Assam are the following:
- How long can and will India keep the issue hanging after doing the citizenship count, identifying the illegals and not act having made so many political commitments to do so?
- What can Bangladesh possibly do when the push could be on its way to becoming a reality. Its own capacity to handle 4 million more is limited in every sense.
- Will it unsettle the region and influence key global players including China to play a role? Who gains and loses?
On all counts, India can make a move on Assam and be safe. Bangladesh doesn’t matter to the world or to any other power and has no power to handle the mess. India knows it and one hopes so does Bangladesh.
Bangladesh continues to have excellent formal and informal relations with Myanmar even after Rohingya eviction. India is a much bigger stakeholder so the chances of normal business continuing is more likely than not.
How strong the government/state capacity will be after the deluge, remains to be seen. But the contingent cost of such actions will be significant.
Nothing that the visiting Indian Foreign Minister said hints at all these are being considered by either country. Kashmir hasn’t affected Pakistan, but 4 million refugees could be a major existential threat for Bangladesh.