February 5, 2020 By: Ikram Sehgal
Rapid globalization and the visible shift of economic and political momentum towards (Eur) Asia because of China and its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), necessitate a thorough analysis of the course that Pakistani’s foreign policy should take now.
The term ‘neutrality’ has been used to describe Pakistan’s present foreign policy. But neutrality in international relations is a well-defined term that implies “the state of not supporting or helping either side in a conflict.” In the context of international law and inter-state relations, it is defined as a wartime political position involving legal duties and responsibilities.
It seems quite clear that this cannot apply to Pakistan’s foreign policy given our contractual involvement with other states including the US.
Nevertheless, in order to define a meaningful concept of national security for Pakistan we need a clear-cut foreign policy and a security concept. Given the fast changing global and regional political environment, such a concept has to take these changes into consideration.
The relatively young Pakistani state has been confronted by the hostility of a much larger neighbour, India, since independence. As a result, Pakistan has been looking for strong allies in the world rather than for a balanced foreign policy.
The felt need for protection from a strong and hostile neighbour required Pakistan to be part of the US camp during the Cold War through organizations like Central Treaty Organization (CENTO) and the South East Asia Treaty Organization (SEATO) established in the 1950s. The US was giving military and economic aid to all member states.
These alliances were preferred also because of the strong anti-communist feelings in Pakistan and because of the strongly felt closeness to Saudi Arabia, the country in-charge of the holy sites of Islam which also seemed to support plans of making Pakistan an Islamic state.
But the history of Pakistan’s alliance with the US was fraught from the beginning. Pakistan faced embarrassment in 1960 when it allowed American spying on the USSR using a U-2 plane from the Badaber base near Peshawar. We were left in the lurch during the 1965 and 1971 wars when instead of supporting Pakistan, the US imposed a weapon embargo. Though the embargo applied to both Pakistan and India, the latter was supplied with arms by its ally, the USSR.
In 1979, the US needed Pakistan as a launch pad for its war against the Soviet Union in Afghanistan. That encouraged the boosting of Islamic militancy and jihadi culture in Pakistan. This was mainly directed by Saudi conservatives. This legacy cost countless Pakistani lives.
Pakistani support of the Taleban had disastrous consequences. After the US withdrawal and the imposition of sanctions on Pakistan, this country was needed again after the 9/11 incident. Pakistan became a launch pad for the American war in Afghanistan that is still on.
Again, Pak-US alliance turned ugly when in 2011 the Salala incident occurred. US-led NATO forces intruded into Pakistani airspace and attacked a Pakistani border post that cost the lives of 28 Pakistani soldiers, wounding another 12.
In May 2011 US helicopters killed Osama bin Laden (OBL) and his family members in Abbotabad. The raid did kill OBL, the perpetrator of the 9/11 atrocity, but it was another embarrassing and humiliating incident for Pakistan.
Seventy years on, Pakistan seems to have learned some lessons, and it has started strengthening its historic relations with China and widening its alliances by including Russia and Turkey into it in an economic, political and military partnership. But the question about relations with the US is unresolved so far.
So, what would be the way forward in this regard?
The major factor to be considered is the fast formation of a Eurasian pivot, meaning the economic, political and security-related integration of Eurasia. Economically, the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) project, of which Pakistan is a partner through CPEC, is a de facto Eurasian Economic Union. Political and security-related organizations like the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) have come up.
Relations within the Middle East, of which Pakistan can also be regarded as a part, have been altered fundamentally by the fight against the ISIS and the war in Iraq, Yemen and Syria triggered by Western efforts for regime changes.
But unfortunately, in this competition for influence in the region, and over access to important energy resources, the US has consistently been losing ground, and Russia together with Turkey and Iran, have been gaining influence and leverage.
The current crisis was unleashed by the US assassination of Iranian General Soleimani. For his part, Soleimani’s action in Syria, Iraq, etc was becoming a case for concern not only for the US but the other countries in the region, including Pakistan.
Retaliation to the assassination is a vivid demonstration of the crumbling of traditional US alliances in the region. NATO member Turkey has just inaugurated a new pipeline to bring Russian gas to Turkey and take it from there to Southern Europe against all efforts by the US to prevent it.
Saudi Arabia’s overtures to Russia and Iran’s successful resistance against US pressure expressed by the recent joint naval drills between Iran, Russia and China again indicate alliances in the making.
The current crisis caused by the murder of Gen Soleimani will result in a weakening of US presence and their leverage in the region, if not full withdrawal.
For Pakistan, this newly evolving picture should be a signal to rethink its position in the world and in the region, especially its alignment with the US. For the time being and until the final pull-out from Afghanistan, the US needs Pakistan. Resumption of military training to Pakistan that had been stopped as ‘punishment’ for our ‘misbehaviour’ is now being given the green signal.
But that is not all, the US also needs Pakistan’s support to expeditiously conclude a US-Taliban peace accord that enables an orderly troop drawdown in Afghanistan and appease the Taliban (who have friendly links with Iran) so that they don’t link up with the “Axis of Resistance”. Most importantly, the US aim is to make Pakistan’s military leaders commit to a new working relationship with the Pentagon and the Central Intelligence Agency.
It would be wise for Pakistan’s military and foreign office to re-assess the parameters to ensure that its security concept is firmly embedded in the region and in regional alliances. That includes a focus on improved relations with our neighbours and more balanced relations with China and Russia so that we are not labeled as being in their camp.
While there are currently limitations to improved relations with Afghanistan and India, there is a wide space open towards Iran. Gen Bajwa himself, and before that, his predecessor Gen Raheel Sharif, have contributed to the improvement of Pak-Iran relations in the recent past. But there is room for far more.
That also implies a careful balancing of relations with Saudi Arabia. It was very humiliating to be read the riot act by the Saudis and their pulling out of the Kuala Lumpur Islamic summit. One really looked up to Crown Prince Muhammad Bin Salman (MBS) for the extraordinary changes brought about within Saudi Arabia. That someone we really admired as our Muslim leader for the future, made us look like lackeys was really embarrassing.
It is true that beggars cannot be choosers, and we have a very heavy reliance on Saudi oil and money. They have indeed been very generous during moments of acute financial crisis. But someone has to explain to MBS that if he chooses to rub the noses of those who admire him in the dust there is bound to be a reaction. They should not be driven away in humiliation.
In the final analysis, we will have no choice but to “reverse” CENTO. Pakistan, Iran and Turkey share among them the toughest non-Arab Muslim fighting machines, now that the Syrians have been almost dismembered and the Egyptian Armed Forces compromised.
We need good relations with all our neighbours but particularly with Iran, Saudi Arabia and the UAE. Our foreign policy must serve Pakistan’s national interest, its internal and external security and its regional standing.
(The writer is a defence and security analyst)