by James M Dorsey
Indications that Iran may not accept Bashar al-Assad’s downfall lying down raise the spectre of renewed sectarian strife that could not only destabilise Syria but also disrupt Middle Eastern efforts to bridge the region’s multiple fault lines.
Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) statements, violent incidents involving remnants of the ancien regime, and the emergence of a mysterious armed group opposed to Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, the rebel group headed by Ahmed al-Sharaa, Syria’s de facto new ruler, fueled concern that Iran may seek to derail the transition to a post-Al-Assad Syria.
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The loss of Mr. Al-Assad’s Syria, coupled with Israel’s decimation of Lebanese Shiite militia Hezbollah, has punctured Swiss cheese-like holes in Iran’s Axis of Resistance that also groups Yemen’s Houthi rebels and armed Iraqi Shiite militias.
The Axis was a pillar of Iran’s forward defence strategy.
Since ousting Mr. Al-Assad in December, Hayat Tahrir and Mr. Al-Sharaa have sought to assure Alawites, the Shiite Muslim sect from which the former president hails, and other minorities that their new Syria would be inclusive and recognise minority rights.
Syria’s new rulers have also sought to contain, if not prevent, revenge attacks against supporters of Mr. Al-Assad, including Alawites, many of whom welcomed the former president’s downfall.
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Alawites in Bashar al-Assad’s military. Credit: The Syrian Observer
Estimates of the number of Alawite men aged 20 to 50 killed in combat during Syria’s 14-year-long civil war range from ten per cent to one-third. Syria’s two to three million Alawites account for ten to 13 per cent of the country’s pre-war population.
In addition, a majority of Alawites were government employees under Mr. Al-Assad.
As a result, preventing acts of revenge is proving to be easier said than done.
A new armed group, the Syrian Popular Resistance, announced its opposition to Hayat Tahrir in the waning days of 2024 as Mr. Al-Sharaa persuaded a myriad of rebel groups to lay down their arms, integrate into a new unified military, and participate in a national dialogue that would chart the transition to a new Syria.
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Syrian Popular Resistance statement. Source: Telegram
“We refused to surrender our weapons… The Syrian Popular Resistance…launch(ed) its operations…in response to hundreds of massacres against our people, including Sunnis, Alawites, Shiites, and Christians… We confirm that we are not fighting in the former regime’s name and do not belong to it. We are fighting in defense of ourselves, our families, our homes, our money, and our land,” the group said in a statement.
There is no suggestion that the Resistance is associated with Iran. It was similarly unclear whether the group was involved in clashes in recent days between Hayat Tahrir and remnants of the Al-Assad regime.
Last week, remnants of the ancien regime killed at least 14 Hayat Tahrir law enforcement officials in an ambush.
Raising the spectre of an Iranian-backed Syrian revolt, Syria analyst Charles Lister reported that the Revolutionary Guards planned to “foster, direct, and support an insurgency.” Mr. Lister also said that Hayat Tahrir had arrested two Al-Assad regime operatives with Revolutionary Guard identification cards.
The Resistance, like Iran, portrayed Hayat Tahrir as “terrorists” and jihadists because of the group’s past links to Al-Qaeda and the Islamic State. Hayat Tahrir first renounced its jihadist credentials almost a decade ago.
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Iranian Supreme National Security Council Secretary Ali Akbar Ahmadian meets Omani Foreign Minister Sayyid Badr Albusaidi
Moreover, the Resistance issued its statement two days before the Revolutionary Guards called for the first time for a counterrevolution against Takfiri “terrorists’ that had “occupied” Syria. Iran uses the term takfiri or apostate to denounce jihadists.
Iranian media reported the formation of the Resistance without mentioning it by name.
Separately, Iranian Supreme National Security Council Secretary Ali Akbar Ahmadian told Omani Foreign Minister Sayyid Badr Albusaidi that “a new resistance was born (in Syria) that will manifest itself in the coming years.”
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A map of the distribution of Alawites in the Levant. Credit: Wikimedia Commons
At the same time, Iranian media asserted that Hayat Tahrir intended to destroy or remove Shiite Muslim shrines in Syria.
Notwithstanding the indications, it would be misleading to reduce Alawite concerns to merely sabotage by remnants of the Al-Assad regime or Iranian instigation.
“It would not be wise to dismiss the concerns here as simply the work of Iranian agitation, propaganda by the ‘resistance axis’, or sabotage by ‘regime remnants,’ even if not all or most Alawites share the concerns“ about frequent acts of revenge, said Syria scholar Aymenn Jawad Al-Tamimi.
A deep distrust of Hayat Tahrir powers the Alawite concerns because of its jihadist antecedents.
A former member of an Iranian-backed group who was happy to see Mr. Al-Assad’s back told Mr. Al-Tamimi that there was “nothing” Hayat Tahrir could do to prevent “a sectarian war.”
“They can’t even if they wanted. The hyenas cannot remain in human clothing. They will tear this clothing apart and show their true face sooner or later. Extremist Islamic thought cannot be contained by any civil framework. They will tear off this mask and bring out their Shari‘a to apply it. This has been tested everywhere, and the results have always been the same,” Mr. Al-Tamimi quoted the former member as saying.
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Alawites fear that Hayat Tahrir’s conservative Sunni Muslim religious precepts will impinge on their more permissive way of life, including women’s right to leave their hair uncovered in public, the consumption of alcohol, and the sanctity of Alawite mausoleums that serve as places of devotion.
Hayat Tahrir’s refusal to engage with Iran, Mr. Al-Sharaa’s gloating that Mr. Al-Assad’s downfall had “set the Iranian project in the region back by 40 years,” and the group’s efforts to put itself in the United States’ good graces fuel Iranian inclinations to foster an armed insurgency in Syria.
The United States is mulling removing Hayat Tahrir from its list of designated terrorists. Hayat Tahrir needs the delisting to rebuild Syria’s war-ravaged economy.
“We are ready to develop and enhance relations as long as the new US administration shows willingness,” newly appointed Syrian Foreign Minister Asaad Hassan al-Shibani told Al Jazeera as he was about to travel to Saudi Arabia in the first overseas trip by a senior Hayat Tahrir official since Mr. Al-Assad’s downfall.
Last week, Mr. Al-Shibani rebuked Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Aragchi for asserting that it was “too soon to judge (Syria’s future), both for us and for those others who think victories were won in Syria.”
Mr. Al-Shibani responded, “We warn them against spreading chaos in Syria, and we hold them responsible for the repercussions of the latest remarks.”
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Iranian support for an armed insurgency in Syria could prove to be a double-edged sword.
It could put the Revolutionary Guards at odds with President Masoud Pezeshkian, who is seeking a rapprochement with the United States in a bid to persuade President-elect Donald J. Trump to lift crippling US sanctions.
US officials have expressed concern about recent attacks on minorities in Syria.
Mr. Al-Shibani said concern about minorities was “a minor part” of discussions with US officials.
Rather than seriously wanting to destabilise Syria, Iran may see the threat of an insurgency as a way to pressure the incoming Trump administration, populated by Iran hawks, to engage with the Islamic Republic.
Even so, rekindling sectarian tensions risks upsetting the delicate balance crafted by Iran, Saudi Arabia, the United Emirates, other Gulf states, Egypt, and Turkey designed to freeze differences, often spiked by sectarian rhetoric, that long kept the Middle East on edge.
Dr. James M. Dorsey is an Adjunct Senior Fellow at Nanyang Technological University’s S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies, and the author of the syndicated column and podcast, The Turbulent World with James M. Dorsey.