Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi was considered a leading candidate to succeed Ayatollah Ali Khamenei as the country’s supreme leader. © Reuters
TOKYO — The death of Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi has brought a cloud of uncertainty to the country’s future leadership, adding a new wrinkle to tensions in the Middle East, already rocked by the war in Gaza.
Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei on Sunday tried to project a sense of order, stressing that Raisi’s death in a helicopter crash has not caused a disruption in the government. While the president heads the Iranian government, the supreme leader is the country’s highest political authority.
But while Raisi’s death may not have an immediate impact on policy, it is seen throwing a wrench into the race to succeed the 84-year-old Khamenei.
A hardline conservative, Raisi was elected president in 2021 following tenures as Iran’s attorney general and head of the judiciary. He was loyal to Khamenei, in contrast to the strained relationship predecessors like Hassan Rouhani had with the supreme leader, and was seen as a likely candidate to eventually take over the top post.
“Khamenei spent years grooming President Raisi into someone who can become supreme leader in both name and in reality, but he’s now back to square one,” said Sachi Sakanashi, senior research fellow at the Institute Of Energy Economics, Japan.
Khamenei’s son, Mojtaba Khamenei, is also considered to be in the running, but it is unclear how the idea of a hereditary successor would be received, given that the Iranian republic was established by overthrowing the monarchy, Sakanashi said.
One alternative is to pick a member of the Assembly of Experts, the body responsible for choosing the supreme leader. But there is currently no clear candidate that stands out from the rest.
Iran is a major player in the Middle East, while on the wider international stage it has been growing closer to Russia and China. Its new leadership will have a significant impact on both Iranian politics and global affairs.
Under the Iranian constitution, a new president must be chosen within 50 days of the death of an incumbent. “That means in less than 2 months, a successor may emerge who is as conservative and loyal to the system as Raisi was,” Ali Vaez, the International Crisis Group’s Iran Project Director, wrote on social platform X.
Raisi was expected to seek reelection in 2025, and his sudden death kick-starts the race for the presidency ahead of schedule. Presidential candidates in Iran must first be vetted by the Constitutional Council, with those deemed to be out of line with the regime not permitted to run.
This comes amid growing frustration among the Iranian public. The government launched a violent crackdown when nationwide protests — sparked in 2022 over the death of a woman who had allegedly violated Iran’s hijab law — began calling for regime change. Meanwhile, U.S. sanctions weigh heavily on the economy, with inflation at nearly 40%.
Iran’s parliamentary election in March, which was seen as a test of the public’s confidence in Raisi, saw a record-low turnout of 41%. Many voters also cast blank ballots. Another election could further highlight dissatisfaction among Iran’s more moderate voters.
Also among the potential areas of fallout from Sunday’s helicopter crash is Iran’s foreign policy. Foreign Minister Hossein Amirabdollahian, who was also killed, had been working to improve Iran’s ties with Saudi Arabia and other neighbors. He was also Iran’s point person in dealings with Hamas chief Ismail Haniyeh.
Raisi took a tough stance on the U.S. and Europe, and had supported Hamas in its war against Israel. Iran-backed militant groups like Hezbollah in Lebanon and Houthi rebels in Yemen have also attacked Israel. Iran and Israel conducted a series of retaliatory attacks on each other in April.
Senior U.S. and Iranian officials held indirect talks last week in Oman to prevent Middle Eastern tensions from escalating further, according to Axios. A change at the top of Iran’s diplomatic establishment could lead to a breakdown in informal communication between the two countries, which do not have formal diplomatic ties.
source : asia.nikkei