No. 216/2018 dated 27 December 2018
By Nazia Hussain; S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
SYNOPSIS
There is no consensus on what the Indo-Pacific concept will cover. It is not
clear what kind of structure is needed for such an Indo-Pacific construct.
Nevertheless, the main protagonists behind the Indo-Pacific concept continue
their diplomatic efforts to crystalise such a strategy. ASEAN remains
non-committal even though it has reasserted ASEAN centrality.
COMMENTARY
INDIA, JAPAN and the United States held their first trilateral
meeting on the sidelines of the recently concluded G20 Summit in Buenos Aires.
Invariably deliberating on the Indo-Pacific, the leaders of the three countries
agreed that a “free, open, inclusive and rules-based” order is
essential for the Indo-Pacific’s peace and prosperity.
They also stated the importance of meeting in a trilateral format at
multilateral conferences. Coined as the JAI meeting, Prime Minister Narendra
Modi explained the significance of the JAI (Japan, America, India) acronym,
which translates to “success” in Hindi.
JAI Troika
The JAI grouping is shaping up to play a key role in Indian foreign policy.
India has proposed the three countries synergise their infrastructure projects
and other efforts in the region. Tokyo and New Delhi have already agreed to
deepen naval and maritime-security cooperation
and collaborate on infrastructure projects in third countries, including
Myanmar, Bangladesh, and Sri Lanka, to enhance strategic connectivity in the
Indo-Pacific.
Assuring all countries of the inclusiveness and openness of the Indo-Pacific
concept, PM Modi articulated five
action points that would serve the common interest of promoting peace and
prosperity in the Indo-Pacific region — connectivity, sustainable development,
maritime security, disaster relief and freedom of navigation.
Modi also underlined the importance of building consensus on an architecture
in the Indo-Pacific region based on principles of mutual benefit and respect
for sovereignty and territorial integrity.
Question of Implementation
While stakeholders have a broad agreement on the principles that the
Indo-Pacific concept entails, what needs to be discussed next is the
implementation of these principles of freedom of navigation, peaceful
resolution of disputes, and a rules-based order.
Without addressing the question of implementation and lacking clarity on the
specifics, countries in the region including ASEAN will continue to remain
hesitant to embrace the Indo-Pacific concept.
According to Kavi Chongkittavorn, ASEAN member states showed different levels
of scepticism to the Indo-Pacific concept. The Philippines and Cambodia were
the most reluctant
to discuss the initiative within the ASEAN framework fearing it might hurt
ASEAN centrality, while Laos, Brunei and Myanmar were silent.
However, they became more receptive to discussions as more information became
available. Indonesia, Vietnam, Thailand, Singapore and Malaysia seem to be supportive
of the initiative although each of them would like to shape different aspects
of the Indo-Pacific concept in pursuant of their respective strategic
interests.
Changing Strategic
Paradigm?
The strategic paradigm has changed in the Indian Ocean and the debate now is
how to respond. Washington and New Delhi have time and again reiterated that
ASEAN centrality is key to the Indo-Pacific concept as it embodies regional
inclusivity and multilateral trade. ASEAN already has in place a set of
inter-linking regional mechanisms such as the East Asia Summit (EAS), ASEAN
Regional Forum (ARF) and ASEAN Defence Ministers Meeting (ADMM) Plus, designed
to engage big powers and neighbouring countries.
The Indo-Pacific framework should make use of these existing mechanisms to
ensure that the Indian Ocean region has complementary rather than competing
mechanisms. For instance, ASEAN can engage its ASEAN Maritime Forum to
complement efforts by the Indian Ocean RIM Association (IORA) and the Indian Ocean
Naval Symposium (IONS).
ASEAN can also engage BIMSTEC as an economic sub-grouping in the Bay of Bengal
involving Bangladesh, India, Myanmar, Sri Lanka, Thailand, Nepal and Bhutan,
especially since two of the BIMSTEC members (Myanmar and Thailand) are also
member states of ASEAN. BIMSTEC’s connectivity projects in the Bay of Bengal
region will greatly benefit from ASEAN’s involvement.
ASEAN’s role in the
Indo-Pacific Framework
To get ASEAN on board with the Indo-Pacific concept, it is essential the Southeast
Asian grouping plays a role in defining the evolving regional security
architecture which follows. Since Indonesia has been the most active among
ASEAN member states in articulating its version of the Indo-Pacific, Jakarta
has been tasked by ASEAN to finalise the ASEAN concept paper on the
Indo-Pacific.
Although the concept paper is still being drawn up, ASEAN diplomats have
alerted ASEAN dialogue
partners that the ASEAN framework will not toe the line of the US-inspired
strategy despite some overlap on key principles. Furthermore, it will be
inclusive and not aimed at any particular power.
It will also come with practical measures and action plans. ASEAN aims to synergise
elements of Washington, Tokyo and India’s concepts with ASEAN-led projects
concerning infrastructure development, governance and maritime cooperation.
ASEAN foreign ministers are scheduled for a retreat
in Chiang Mai in January 2019 and will have the opportunity to further
deliberate on ASEAN’s vision for the Indo-Pacific.
Need to Continue
Engagement
The Indian Ocean is a contested, complex and congested region. Each stakeholder
has their own perception of what the “Free and Open Indo-Pacific” (FOIP) means.
For Washington, the Indo-Pacific stretches from the west coast of the United
States to the west coast of India. For Tokyo and New Delhi, it lies from the
west coast of the US to the east coast of Africa.
The US has emphasised the power dynamics underlying the FOIP while Japan has
highlighted its economic potential. To Japan, the FOIP is open to all countries
which observe the rule of law, freedom of navigation, and relevant standards of
transparency and sustainable development.
While stressing that no one is excluded, the US aspires to a regional order of
independent nations in the Indo-Pacific that defends its populations, respects
human dignity, competes fairly in the market place, and is free from
great-power domination. Thus, it may not be easy for China to be part of the
FOIP even if Beijing wished to be included.
As different states have different understandings of the idea of Indo-Pacific,
it is critical to ensure that the Indo-Pacific concept does not create
misunderstandings. To this end, there is a need to continue engagement with
ASEAN member states and stakeholders in the Indian Ocean so that all Indian
Ocean actors are on the same page. More so now that Australia, India and
Indonesia are heading into electoral campaigning in 2019.
Nazia Hussain is a Research Analyst in the Office of the Executive Deputy
Chairman, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS), Nanyang
Technological University, Singapore.
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