by Prathamesh Mendki 25 Janaury 2024
India’s stock market has achieved a historic first by surpassing Hong Kong’s, taking the coveted fourth spot in the global equities market ranking. According to Bloomberg data, as of Monday’s close (closing day of January 22, 2024), the total value of shares listed on Indian exchanges reached $4.33 trillion, surpassing Hong Kong’s $4.29 trillion. This marks the first time that India’s stock market has overtaken Hong Kong’s. India now has the fourth-largest equity market in the world. Strong corporate earnings and an expanding pool of retail investors are driving the recent surge in the Indian shares market. According to Bloomberg research, India positions itself as a competitive alternative to China, drawing in international investment and businesses because of its politically stable environment and one of the fastest-growing economies in the world, which is driven by consumption. The article also stated that on December 5, the value of the stock market topped $4 trillion, with roughly half of that amount occurring in the previous four years.
Hong Kong, on the other hand, has experienced an unprecedented downturn as a result of strict anti-COVID-19 regulations, regulatory crackdowns, a crisis in the real estate industry, and geopolitical tensions. With the market capitalization of Chinese and Hong Kong stocks falling by more than $6 trillion since their high in 2021, this slump has caused an equities avalanche. Hong Kong used to be one of the busiest places in the world for initial public offerings, but that environment has since died down.
Although some analysts predict a reversal for Chinese stocks, India’s momentum seems unflinching. According to UBS Group AG, Chinese equities could beat their Indian counterparts in 2024 because of their severely discounted values, which point to substantial upside potential. Bernstein, on the other hand, believes that Indian stocks are overvalued and suggests making profits in this market. Still, the general pattern indicates that India is ahead at the moment. The Hang Seng China Enterprises Index has already dropped by almost 13% in the new year, reflecting the growing dismay towards China and Hong Kong.
India’s market indices are still trading close to all-time highs in the interim. Once engrossed with the China story, foreign investors are shifting their money to India. The world’s pension and sovereign wealth managers are choosing India more and more, according to recent research by the Official Monetary and Financial Institutions Forum. This finding supports the widespread belief that India offers the best long-term investment opportunities. Over $21 billion in foreign capital flooded into Indian shares in 2023, helping the country’s benchmark S&P BSE Sensex Index to rise for the ninth year in a row. Based on findings from the company’s Global Strategy Conference, strategists at Goldman Sachs Group Inc., including Guillaume Jaisson and Peter Oppenheimer, emphasised this attitude, saying, “There is a clear consensus that India is the best long-term investment opportunity”.
Let’s try to examine how India’s position on the international scene is strengthened by this tectonic shift:
Economic muscle flexing: With a market capitalization exceeding $4.33 trillion, India has muscled its way past a long-standing financial powerhouse like Hong Kong. This signifies a maturing economy, brimming with potential and attracting global investors. The world is taking notice of India’s robust domestic market, driven by a young and aspirational population, a burgeoning middle class, and a vibrant startup ecosystem. This economic heft translates to greater bargaining power in international trade negotiations, and a stronger voice in shaping global economic norms.
Geopolitical ascendance: The stock market surge is not an isolated event; it is a manifestation of India’s broader geopolitical ambitions. Prime Minister Modi’s “Make in India” initiative, coupled with ambitious infrastructure projects, is transforming the country into a manufacturing and investment hub. This economic self-reliance strengthens India’s position in the global power play, making it less susceptible to external pressures and providing it with greater leverage in international affairs.
The rise of the Asian tiger: India’s ascendance is not just a win for the country but for the entire Asian continent. It signals a shift in the global balance of power, with Asia emerging as a potent economic and political force. India, alongside China and Japan, is reshaping the global landscape, challenging the traditional Western dominance. This shift has significant implications for global security, trade, and the environment, presenting both opportunities and challenges for the international community.
Strategic partnerships: India’s economic prowess opens doors for strategic partnerships with other nations. The Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (Quad), comprising India, the United States, Japan, and Australia, gained renewed momentum as a counterweight to China’s growing influence. India’s economic clout also strengthens its ties with other Asian and African nations, fostering regional cooperation and promoting a more multipolar world order.
Challenges and opportunities: While the stock market surge is a cause for celebration, it is crucial to acknowledge the challenges that lie ahead. India needs to address issues like income inequality, infrastructure bottlenecks, and bureaucratic hurdles to sustain this economic momentum. Additionally, navigating the delicate geopolitical landscape, balancing its relationship with the US and Russia, and mitigating regional tensions will be crucial for India to fully realize its potential.
A message to the world: India’s stock market surge is a resounding message to the world: the elephant is no longer just in the room, it is at the centre of the stage. India is not just a vast market, but a rising power with a voice that demands to be heard. This economic surge is a testament to the resilience and dynamism of the Indian people, and a harbinger of a future where India plays a pivotal role in shaping the global narrative.
In Conclusion, The Indian stock market’s ascent is not just a financial event; it is a defining moment in the country’s history and a turning point in the global order. It signifies India’s arrival as a major economic and geopolitical player, with the potential to reshape the world stage. As India navigates this exciting new chapter, the world watches with anticipation, eager to see how this Asian tiger will roar on the global stage!!