Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi waves to supporters during a Bharatiya Janata Party campaign event ahead of the Telangana state assembly elections in Hyderabad, India, on Nov. 27.Noah Seelam/AFP via Getty Images
Foreign Policy magazine 7 December 2023
India’s ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) stormed to victory in three big state elections on Sunday. It wrested power away from the Indian National Congress, the country’s main opposition party, in Chhattisgarh and Rajasthan, and it retained control of the government in Madhya Pradesh. Congress triumphed in a fourth state election in Telangana.
The BJP’s victories solidify its political dominance in what is known as the Hindi heartland—a populous region stretching across north and central India. Ten of the region’s states alone account for more than 40 percent of the seats in Parliament. The ruling party’s performance also deals a blow to Congress just as the opposition was picking up momentum to gear up for India’s national elections next spring.
A year ago, Congress defeated the BJP in the state of Himachal Pradesh, ending a run of 18 state election losses over four years; in May, it did it again in Karnataka. An emboldened Congress united with 27 other parties in July to form a new alliance that called itself INDIA (the Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance), a major development for a famously fractured opposition. Then India’s Supreme Court suspended a defamation conviction against Congress leader Rahul Gandhi, allowing him to return to politics.
Indian political experts attribute the BJP’s success over the weekend to multiple factors. The ruling party tapped into grievances about corruption, capitalized on anti-incumbent sentiment, fell back on popular Hindu nationalist themes, galvanized local communities, and exploited Congress’s weaknesses—such as party infighting.
The BJP also unleashed its most potent weapon: Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi. The country’s most popular politician campaigned for BJP candidates across Chhattisgarh, Rajasthan, and Madhya Pradesh, drawing massive crowds. Gandhi did the same for Congress, but with starkly different results, amplifying one of the Congress party’s fundamental problems: its inability to field a leader with Modi’s charisma and popularity.
The state election results may hurt Congress more than they help the BJP. Even without the three electoral victories, the BJP would be heavily favored to hold on to power in the national election. Congress, by contrast, must now do some soul-searching. Its momentum is lost, and its standing within the opposition alliance may come into question.
In the elections it lost, Congress chose to go it alone without any of its INDIA partners, which could lead to divisions that would have to be addressed for the alliance to have any chance of ousting Modi next year. On Tuesday, Congress reportedly postponed a meeting it had called for the alliance this week after leaders of other member parties said they wouldn’t attend.
There is another unsettling takeaway for Congress. The BJP’s performance not only made a rare third consecutive term more likely for Modi, but it also showcased the electoral clout of other top BJP leaders—especially Yogi Adityanath, the chief minister of Uttar Pradesh, a Hindu nationalist firebrand and possible Modi successor. Adityanath was among a very small number of top BJP leaders who also campaigned for candidates across the three states the BJP won.
India joins Bangladesh and Pakistan in holding national elections during the first half of 2024, and there is a good chance that all three countries will return the incumbents to power. In Bangladesh, where the opposition is likely to boycott the election, and in Pakistan, where crackdowns on the opposition raise concerns about a level playing field, the outcome may not reflect the public will.
But in India, the BJP clearly enjoys extensive public support. Voters in Chhattisgarh, Rajasthan, and Madhya Pradesh are the latest data point, heaping more challenges on a chastened Congress and an increasingly vulnerable INDIA alliance.
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