India's Bihar goes to the polls in contest seen as key to 2026 elections

NEW DELHI -- India's politically crucial eastern state of Bihar starts voting in a two-phase election this week in what is expected to be a tight race between the ruling alliance of Prime Minister Narendra Modi and the opposition coalition.

The outcome could have a bearing on other regional elections due next year.

Polls open Thursday in 121 of 243 constituencies of Bihar, one of India's most populous and poorest states. The remaining constituencies will vote next Tuesday, and all ballots will be counted the following Friday, Nov. 14.

India's chief election commissioner Gyanesh Kumar said in a recent press conference that Bihar, with a total population of 130 million, has about 74.3 million voters, including 1.4 million first-time voters and 14,000 aged above 100. "You must be surprised to know that only 10 or 11 countries in the world have more voters than Bihar. The Election Commission believes that the Bihar polls are the mother of all elections."

The National Democratic Alliance (NDA), of which Modi's Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is a key constituent, is currently in power in Bihar, where Nitish Kumar, a Modi ally and the leader of Janata Dal (United) party, is the chief minister. Kumar, 74, who has held the top post for 20 years -- except for a brief period between May 2014 and February 2015 -- continues to enjoy support at the ground level.

The opposition, however, has levelled attacks over his mental health and ability to lead the NDA in Bihar.

"How does it feel to see the chief minister of a state in such a pitiful condition? Do the honorable chief minister's bizarre antics make him appear mentally healthy to you?" Rashtriya Janata Dal leader Tejashwi Yadav, who is the opposition alliance's chief ministerial candidate, said on X last month as he posted a video clip of an event where Kumar is seen repeatedly fidgeting with his hands.

Rahul Gandhi of the Indian National Congress, which is the largest opposition party at the national level and is a part of the opposition alliance in Bihar, alleged at a public rally late last month that Kumar is being remote-controlled by the BJP. "Nitish [Kumar's] face is being used [while] the remote control is in the hands of the BJP."

While issues like local unemployment and migration of people to other states have long remained a concern, it is apparently the issue of caste that weighs heavily in the minds of Bihar voters.

"People belonging to the [Hindu] Yadav community, which constitutes about 14% of the state's population, and Muslims, who make up nearly 18% of residents, are expected to vote for the opposition alliance, while the upper caste [Hindu] voters with 15.5% share in the population are likely to side with the BJP," said Shakeb Ahmad, who hails from Bihar and works as a public relations professional in New Delhi. "The extremely backward class [from socially and economically disadvantaged backgrounds], which accounts for over one-third of the state's population, is expected to support Kumar's party as the chief minister has launched several welfare schemes for them, including financial assistance."

Several opinion polls have predicted a close contest, with a slight edge to the NDA.

According to V.S. Chandrasekar, a New Delhi-based political observer and former executive editor of the Press Trust of India news agency, it is a crucial election for both the ruling and opposition alliances. "If the NDA loses, then questions will be raised about the stability and the future of the [federal] government too, and if they win, it would be a big setback for the [opposition] alliance, which has not had a major victory after the 2024 national elections because it lost elections in states like Maharashtra and Haryana."

Describing Modi as the NDA's "vote catcher," Chandrasekar said the outcome in Bihar is important as it is expected to set the tone for next year's elections in Tamil Nadu, Assam, West Bengal and Kerala.

"Even though the opposition alliance is headed by a young leader (Yadav turns 36 on Sunday), his parents' regime haunts him. It was a 'jungle raj' during his father Lalu Prasad Yadav's tenure as chief minister from 1990 to 1997 and then his mother Rabri Devi's rule until 2005," the former editor said, referring to widespread lawlessness in Bihar in the past.

Modi has repeatedly mentioned "jungle raj" to slam the opposition ahead of the polls. "There is no doubt in my mind that the NDA will emerge victorious. ... People of Bihar have made up their minds that they'll break the record of the scale of the NDA victory in the last 20 years while those from the jungle raj will suffer their worst defeat," he said in Hindi on Tuesday while interacting virtually with the BJP's women workers.

Chandrasekar said that Chief Minister Kumar remains a strong force "though he looks jaded, he is aging and is a little incoherent. He doesn't have an image of corruption and is credited with some good governance and development like the building of roads and basic infrastructure [despite not being] able to attract investments for Bihar's economic turnaround."

"It will be a tight and interesting contest in Bihar," Chandrasekar added.

The article was published in the asia.nikkei