Newly elected AIMIM Bihar MLAs – Mohammad Izhar Asfi (Kochadhaman), Mohammad Izhar Nayeemi (Bahadurganj), Akhtarul Iman (Amour), Syed Ruknuddin Ahmad (Baisi) and Shahnawaz (Jokihat) – meet party president Asaduddin Owaisi, in Hyderabad on Thursday. — IANS
by Nilofar Suhrawardy 14 November 2020
With Bihar assembly elections not spelling decisive majority of any party, what does this really indicate? Though of course, the results and alliances spell the return of the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) to power with probably Nitish Kumar as the Chief Minister for another term, the strong fight put up by Mahagathbandan (MGB) or the Grand Alliance of rival parties cannot be dismissed lightly by Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and its allies. With Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) led by Tejashwi Yadav (son of former chief minister Lalu Prasad) having gained more seats and votes than BJP, his campaign, and its impact carries a distinct message.
While BJP has won 74 seats and 19.4% votes, RJD has won 75 seats and 23.1% votes in the 243-member assembly. Janata Dal-United (JD-U) has won 43 seats and 15.4% votes. Interestingly, seat-wise and vote-wise, neither party has crossed the fifty-percent mark. There is nothing surprising about this given that India has a multi-party system. In addition to numerous parties participating in elections, the strategy of fielding independent candidates and of floating small parties to contest is used by key players to split vote-banks of their rivals. So, thus, numerous candidates emerge as winners by small margins and without winning fifty percent votes.
At present, even though BJP hasn’t been favored by even a quarter of voters in Bihar, the party is being viewed as the major winner and the key player in the state’s politics. Nevertheless, there is another side to Bihar’s assembly elections, which perhaps carries a strong message for Indian political strategists at all levels. Votes and seats won by BJP clearly indicate that this party’s victory does not rest on any Modi-wave. Further, the importance given by the saffron brigade to the Ayodhya-issue and construction of Hindu Lord Ram’s statue has had a limited impact on voters.
An ally of BJP, Lok Janshakti Party (LJP) has won less than six percent votes and only one seat. LJP fought against JD-U in Bihar. There is a view LJP adopted this strategy to diminish Kumar’s electoral gains. LJP leader, Chirag Paswan’s campaign strongly criticized Kumar’s role as a chief minister. The possibility of Paswan having been prompted to play this role by BJP cannot be ignored. BJP has time and again adopted the strategy of aligning with key regional leaders and then overshadowing them to eventually diminish their importance in their domains.
Not surprisingly, the present scenario in Bihar is being described as one in which BJP has emerged as a big brother to JD-U in the NDA alliance. Kumar no longer enjoys the earlier dominance his party had in Bihar assembly as well as state politics. Compared to 115 seats, JD-U won in 2010 elections, 71 in 2015, this time the party has 43 seats only. In 2010, BJP won 91 seats, followed by 53 in 2015 and 74 during these polls. While BJP’s performance has improved against its gains in 2015, the same cannot be said about JD-U.
If BJP and its saffron brigade associates view Bihar results as a major victory for them, they need to revise their political calculations. Also, prospects of victory in Bihar facilitating chances of their promoting saffron brigade’s Hindutva agenda may also be viewed as slim. This is strongly suggested by the nature of RJD leader Tejashwi Yadav’s campaign. He laid focus on spelling the economic development of Bihar with more employment and educational opportunities for people. If his electoral campaign had not appealed to the people, his party and its alliance would not have given a strong fight to NDA. Besides, reports of attendance at his rallies marked by a strong number of young people cannot be ignored.
Voters in Bihar may not have given the same importance to economic issues if they had not been struck by Covid-19. There is no denying that the vicious coronavirus has spelled economic distress for people at all levels practically all over the world. Lack of job opportunities in their state has been forcing Biharis to seek employment elsewhere for a long time. Migrant workers’ walk back following the sudden announcement of lockdown earlier this year included a larger number of Biharis. As the lockdown has eased, people have once again started hunting for jobs at home and outside their states. Of these, many may not have cast their votes during these elections. However, the trauma faced by those migrant workers and the crises linked with Covid-phase has apparently made people more conscious about their economic problems.
The preceding point is further proved by the limited appeal of an attempt made to use Ayodhya-card. Prime Minister Modi did touch on this issue during his campaign but this failed to turn the electoral wave totally in BJP’s favor. LJP leader Paswan talked of a Sita temple in Sitamarhi bigger than the Ram temple in Ayodhya. Though as speculated, Paswan seems to have succeeded in reducing Kumar’s seats, his own party has performed miserably, winning just one seat.
Besides, the caste-factor and not religious polarization probably helped Paswan in playing a negative role against Kumar (JD-U). Interestingly, despite JD-U being a key ally of BJP at the center and also in state politics, Paswan went overboard in indulging in a negative campaign against Kumar. Though LJP has won only one seat out of 137 seats the party fielded candidates from, the possibility of it having dented the vote-bank of Kumar in several areas cannot be ignored. JD-U has won 43 seats out of the 115 it contested from.
It is possible, Asaduddin Owaisi’s party (All India Majlis-e-Ittehad-ul-Muslimeen) played a spoil-sport for MGB by dividing votes of Muslims. Though Owaisi’s home state is Andhra Pradesh, he is trying to spread his party in other parts of the country. He has been strongly criticized for cutting votes of anti-BJP parties. AIMIM has succeeded in winning five seats from the 24 it fielded its candidates from. AIMIM has been blamed for poor performance displayed by Congress in certain Muslim-dominated areas. Congress has won only 19 seats out of 70 seats it fought from. Speculations are also being voiced about Congress having spoiled the show for MGB by being accorded a greater share of seats in this alliance and by not fielding the right candidates in certain constituencies.
Distribution of seats among the rivals- NDA and MGB, suggests that key parties of both banked on their respective alliances yielding the desired results. BJP of NDA contested from 110 seats while RJD of MGB from 144 seats. Just as JD-U fared poorly in NDA, the same can be said about Congress in MGB. Nevertheless, the stunning performance of Left Bloc in MGB cannot be ignored. With Left parties winning 16 out of 29 seats they contested from, clearly, they cannot be written off as yet.
Overall, Bihar’s electoral verdict serves as a key pointer to a few issues which cannot be ignored. The verdict has not been decided by either Modi-wave or Ayodhya-card. Covid-crisis has prompted voters to give greater importance to economic issues spelled out during the electoral campaigns. Though caste and religious factors still hold socio-political relevance, young voters cannot afford to ignore employment issues and the development of Bihar. Covid-19 has dawned upon all that the vicious virus has struck them, irrespective of their caste, religion, or any division. It is possible, RJD with MGB may not have been able to give a strong fight to BJP with NDA if Covid-phase had not prompted voters to give serious consideration to their economic interests. And this probably demands analysis of Bihar elections not just on basis of political parties’ agenda but on the importance accorded to the same by voters. It may be said, economic issues have never been ignored by voters. However, the new impetus accorded to the same because of Covid-crisis stands out with RJD having succeeded considerably in electorally cashing on the same. This suddenly spells a wake-up call for politicians planning subsequent elections!