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by Nilofar Suhrawardy 15 May 2023
The sweeping victory of Congress in Karnataka elections has defied opinion polls predicting a hung assembly. The results send strong signals at several levels of which perhaps the most significant is an assertion of Indian voters’ democratic strength. Besides, it is as yet too early to view the electoral potential of Congress as finished. Negative campaigns indulged in by rivals of Congress against Rahul Gandhi and his party colleagues have failed to carry any appeal for people at the grass-roots. The use of religious cards to arouse aggressive fervor among voters and sway them to favor the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has borne minimal electoral significance. Howsoever “effective” BJP stalwarts’ fiery electoral speeches may appear to be, the limited electoral impact that they have on voters has been proved by their verdict in Karnataka. Extensive media coverage gained by these campaigns should not be expected to decide or even indicate who/what people choose to support.
People in Karnataka have certainly voted extremely wisely and also shrewdly during these elections. Comparison of the present verdict with that of 2018 may be viewed as an indicator of this reality. Their turnout to cast votes – 73.19% was described by Chief Electoral Officer, Karnataka, as a “record.” The turnout in 2018 was 72.13%. Paradoxically, despite Congress having won more votes than BJP in 2018, it failed to win the needed number of seats. Congress and its allies won 38.14% votes against 36.35% won by BJP-led NDA. On its own strength, BJP failed to sweep the 2018 polls or even win the needed majority. The results led to a hung assembly with BJP as the single largest party. A different picture has been projected this time. Congress has been favored by more than 43% voters against around 36% supporting BJP. In 2018, JD(S) won 37 seats on strength of around 18% votes. This time, JD(S) has won 19 seats with support of 13.3% voters.
Voters’ shrewdness is marked probably by their choosing primarily to favor either Congress, BJP or JD(S) and not letting their votes be wasted by opting to vote for other parties, independents, etc. Had perhaps voters exercised a similar strategy in 2018, the results may not have led to a hung assembly then also. The importance of this fact is further supported by the present fight for 224 seats having been contested by 2,613 candidates of which 918 were independents and 685 from Registered Unrecognized Political Parties (RUPP). True, in 2018 also, around eight percent votes were not cast for either Congress, BJP or JD(S). What bears greater importance, as suggested earlier, is 92% voters’ decision not to let their votes be wasted. Clearly, statistics of a greater number having favored Congress in 2018 polls cannot be dismissed lightly. It is possible, this reality was not ignored by voters. This is partly suggested by greater difference between votes won by Congress and BJP leading the former to sweep these polls. This is, however, one side of the Karnataka-verdict.
Besides, equally significant is the statistical importance apparently given to 2018 results by Congress leaders. Decision to select Mapanna Mallikarjun Kharge as President of Congress was certainly guided with eye on winning Karnataka polls. Kharge’s Karnataka roots are marked by his having won Assembly elections for a record 10 times. The importance given to this state by Congress party at national level has probably been well received by voters in Karnataka. Even though nominally, at least, his being supported to head the post breaks the notions floated about only Gandhi family holding this authority.
Rahul Gandhi’s Bharat Jodo Yatra (Unite India March) has definitely had a greater impact than expected on Karnataka results. He did not simply pass through the state, addressing a few rallies and similar gatherings. Nature of his march was marked by his literally reaching out to people and addressing them on issues which bear importance for them. The latter includes their economic problems. That this march was a crucial part of Congress campaign for Karnataka elections and coming parliamentary polls cannot be denied. Had the same march been timed just ahead of assembly elections, the impact may not have been the same. Congress has probably taken a leaf from BJP’s communication strategy, that of planning as well as working on its campaign a little ahead of elections. It has apparently learnt that rushing to states at virtually the last minute can be of little help in gaining electorally.
In addition, seats gained by BJP in comparison with victory of Congress and its “success” in 2018 also sends several important messages. Against 104 seats won in 2018, BJP has managed to retain only 65 seats. Undeniably, BJP stalwarts spared no efforts to retain their party’s hold in southern India. Perhaps little importance was given by BJP leaders to people’s verdict in 2018. Karnataka is not Gujarat. Nor it is in the Hindi belt. Besides, had BJP swept the polls in 2018 with more votes than its key rival, it may have signaled the importance this party’s communication strategy holds for people in Karnataka. The present results have signaled quite emphatically Karnataka voters’ refusal to be guided by religious cards used by BJP leaders, negative campaign against their rivals and so forth. Hype raised about its stalwarts had limited impact in 2018 and hardly any now. These are just a few indicators suggesting that BJP can no longer bank on its own communication strategies at least in assembly elections in South India. When voters choose to exercise shrewd wisdom as they seem to have in Karnataka Assembly elections, electoral rhetoric cannot be expected to sway them.
Karnataka’s electoral results may also be viewed as a strong signal of Indian democracy’s strength. If one were to limit one’s approach to stereotyped image held about India in international circles, including media, immediate reaction is likely to view the country facing a democratic crisis. True, one cannot shut eyes to incidents of minorities being targeted, demolition of their houses as well as places of worship, freedom of media, communal incidents, legal action being pursued against rival politicians and so forth. At the same time, Indian media, critics and public have not refrained from questioning the legal as well as socio-political legitimacy of these incidents. Opinion formed by majority is not confined to what select tools of communication try propagating.
Democratic strength of common Indians has also been witnessed in recent years by massive support they have displayed for protest of farmers (Aug 2020 to Dec 2021) and Shaheen Bagh protest of Muslim women on issue of citizenship (Aug 2020 to Dec 2021). They have not failed to join smaller protests including that of women’s wrestlers against chief of Wrestling Federation of India (WFI) for sexual harassment, attack on certain journalists and other cases. Media coverage accorded to these protests has been fairly substantial. When viewed from this angle, it is difficult to accept the notion held about Indian democracy being in perils and/or facing a crisis. Yes, attempts being made by key power-holders to limit its strength at various levels cannot be ignored. Nor can the fact about this being a crucial indicator of their leadership apparently facing crisis. The reason for this crisis rests not on India being the most populated country but on its populace having retained its democratic strength through numerous means of communication, including people to people interaction.
Karnataka voters’ electoral verdict has asserted the strength of their democratic right and power to vote. Irrespective of whatever be stereotyped notions, there hardly prevail chances of these being easily snubbed to stage of India facing democratic crisis. At least, not at present, as has been proved in Karnataka!