However, on the actual outcomes following the Trump-Modi White House meeting, there is little to suggest any progress on US-India ties. What we see is the favourite effort of both leaders in renaming previous agreements and coming up with cute acronyms that cannot paint over the reality that the relationship has more or less plateaued, with few ideas on how to move it forward. All we have are the various initiatives that bureaucracies come up with to add to the word length of the necessary joint communique.
So, instead of the Initiative on Critical and Emerging Technology (iCET), which does not even merit a mention in the joint statement, we now have Transforming the Relationship Utilizing Strategic Technology (TRUST), Autonomous Systems Industry Alliance (ASIA), and Catalyzing Opportunities for Military Partnership, Accelerated Commerce & Technology (COMPACT). It is unclear if there is a whole division within the Prime Minister’s Office devoted to generating these acronyms but if there is, they must be the hardest working unit within the Indian government.
Waiting out the crazies
Lack of imagination means that for two decades now, India’s desiderata has remained unchanged: more high-technology transfers. The practicalities of this demand were always suspect and hence glossed over. How would bits of US technology handed to some Indian public-sector or research and development entities actually benefit India to develop its technological capacity? No matter—India kept harping on technology transfers. It was always highly unlikely both because India can offer little in return and because Trump is now focused more on other issues such as getting better trade numbers than on the strategic challenges facing the US.
At one point, a coterie of strategic analysts in Washington did argue that a stronger Indian would be beneficial to the US. But such arguments about broad national interests are unviable in a regime where interests are defined in the narrowest possible transactional manner. So, there needs to be little expectation that these new acronym-laden initiatives will fare any better than older ones.
Thus, Modi’s US visit did little to transform the trajectory of the India-US relationship. Normally, a plateau may not be a bad thing, especially when dealing with a government like Trump’s, which has little idea of national self-interest and is run essentially by the whims and temper tantrums of, by far, the most self-centred leader in American presidential history. The best any country can do under these circumstances is to hold on and wait the current crazies out, hoping no disaster strikes in between.
Maybe there will be a positive change in US politics in the next presidential election and possibly even after the Congressional elections in two years. Hoping for a change is the fate of all of the US allies and partners. Indeed, some are in an even worse situation: Europe would be happy to be in India’s position but it is looking at a much worse situation, even if it is at least partially of its own making. The only ones celebrating are in Beijing and Moscow, which cannot believe their good fortunes.
The greater danger
The problem in the US-India relations is also a bit deeper. The two countries have been at a plateau for some years now, with no major forward movement. This is concerning because the circumstances faced by India and the Indo-Pacific have not been stable. The security condition has steadily worsened, and it is expected to get worse. China’s power, relative to India and the region, is steadily climbing, and Beijing’s ambitions and aggressiveness show no sign of slackening.
But the greater problem is not even the state of US-India relations. It is the uncertainty about the US itself, and the direction it is embarked upon, both internationally and domestically. Internationally, it was always unclear how the US would respond to certain contingencies, such as Taiwan, though former President Joe Biden repeatedly insisted the US would intervene. Now, the likelihood that the US would seek to balance China in the Indo-Pacific is increasingly open to doubt, given the deep divisions within the Trump administration.
There are individuals and even factions that would like the US to focus much more actively on China but others want to focus also on other regions. Equally, a powerful faction of the current American conservative movement wants little to do with international entanglements. Some of Trump’s advisors, such as Tesla CEO Elon Musk, have strong business interests in China, making them potential bedfellows with America Firsters in fighting any US involvement in countering China. India’s choice was never to align with the US, but a US that makes peace with Beijing and leaves the Indo-Pacific to Chinese influence will still harm New Delhi.
The other danger is the consequences of Trump on American national power. There was in any case a secular, gradual decline in the US’ relative power—though often exaggerated. The spectacular US growth rates over the last few years—ironic, considering public perceptions about a poor economy brought down the Democrats in the presidential election—and slowing Chinese growth rate has slowed the pace of US decline relative to China.
But this could change because Trump’s reckless administration and its pursuit of the supposed ‘deep state’ could wreck the US state itself, along with massive collateral domestic disruptions. Similarly, his pursuit of a new trade regime based on tariff reprisals also threatens to destroy not only the global trade regime but US domestic economic prosperity, which is dependent on international trade.
Additionally, many of Trump’s officials, including Secretary of Health and Human Services Robert F. Kennedy Jr, Secretary of Defense Peter Hegseth, Director of National Intelligence (DNI) Tulsi Gabbard, and head of the Federal Bureau of Investigations (FBI) Kash Patel, and others, promise to be agents of chaos and confusion rather than steady managers of the most powerful state in the world. There is little indication that they have any interest in healing a deeply divided nation, despite winning the presidential election by a slim margin.
A weaker US is not in India’s interest. But this might very well be the result of Trump’s international and domestic actions, with unpredictable consequences for India and the Indo-Pacific.
SOURCE : theprint