by Nilofar Suhrawardy 11 Janaury 2022
Political storm brewing within Uttar Pradesh (UP) for Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) suggests that forthcoming state elections may spell more problems for Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath than probably envisaged by him and his supporters. Yogi’s victory in the 2017 UP Assembly Elections marked the return of BJP to power hereafter more than a decade and a half. Till late, it seemed a return to power would be virtually a cakewalk for Yogi. Danger bells have begun ringing, however, with the resignation of UP Minister Swami Prasad Maurya from BJP to join Samajwadi Party (SP). Maurya is a strong OBC (Other Backward Class) leader and a five-time member of the UP Assembly. He quit Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) in 2016 to join BJP and now has moved over to Akhilesh Yadav (SP)’s party. The same path has been followed by four other state legislators, also known as close to him. They are Roshan Lal Verma, Brijesh Prajapati, Bhagwati Sagar and Vinay Shakya. They were also members of BSP before joining BJP and now they are with SP.
Virtually lashing out at Yogi, Maurya’s resignation letter states, “Despite a divergent ideology, I worked with dedication in the Yogi Adityanath cabinet. But because of the grave oppression of Dalits, OBCs, farmers, unemployed and small businessmen, I am resigning.” Earlier, he had reportedly complained to Union Home Minister Amit Shah about Yogi but without much success. Steps are being considered to persuade Maurya and his supporters’ return to BJP. But at present, nothing can be said about their outcome.
BJP-stalwarts weren’t probably prepared for this turn in UP politics just ahead of state elections. Undeniably, politicking in play at several levels is playing a fairly complicated role. This has more to do with intra-party politicking than with rival parties. Voice raised by Maurya against Yogi is just a mild indicator of this hard reality. Besides, prospects of Congress returning to power still seems remote. Nevertheless, BJP’s loss of its key leaders enhances the chances of other rival parties performing better in 2022 than they did in the 2017 elections. At present, BJP’s loss has been SP’s gain.
Interestingly, bigger damage may be caused by the future aims of Yogi. Yes, the 49-year politician is not likely to be satisfied with being just the UP chief minister for too long. Prior to taking charge of UP, he was elected member of Lok Sabha for five consecutive terms from Gorakhpur. At 26, he was the youngest member of the 12th Lok Sabha. He apparently had eyes set on a national stage from the day he joined politics.
Besides, attempts made to enhance his political base cannot be ignored. These include his campaigning in assembly elections of other states, including Gujarat, Himachal Pradesh, Karnataka, Kerala Tamil Nadu, Tripura, and West Bengal. He was even labeled as the party’s “star-campaigner”. Of course, there is a difference in his being considered a “favored” politician by some but not by all within BJP. The same may be said about the appeal of his right-winged religious card within the UP and other parts of India.
At the same time, Yogi is not as close to Prime Minister Narendra Modi as Amit Shah is assumed to be. Shah has even been considered as Modi’s right-hand. Till not too long ago, his stepping into Modi’s shoes to lead India as prime minister was considered an unwritten rule. The past few days have witnessed the circulation of some negative news about their relations. Shah was quoted by Meghalaya Governor Satya Pal Malik as having said “he” (apparently Modi) “had lost his mind.” Subsequently, he withdrew his remark saying that Shah didn’t comment on Modi. Shah is not at all keen on any such factor disturbing his ties with Modi. They have shared a good political understanding from their common home state, Gujarat. Besides, he has also been an active campaigner during several states’ assembly polls. Prior to taking charge as Union Home Minister, Shah served as BJP president from 2014 – 19. Since 2014, he has been chairperson of the National Democratic Alliance (NDA). Yogi can claim credit for being a parliamentarian for around twice the period as Shah. However, Shah’s quick rise on the national front within less than a decade places him ahead of Yogi in a possible race for a prime ministerial berth.
Yogi may not have been appointed as UP chief minister in 2017 if Modi was not heading the national government. BJP’s return to power in 2017 in UP after around 15 years rested primarily on Modi’s political cards and the weak strategies of BJP’s rival parties. Though BJP won 312 seats in the 403-member UP assembly, it secured only 39.67% of votes. Its key rivals SP and BSP won 47 and 19 seats, respectively. While 21.82% votes favored SP, 22.23% – BSP. In a number of seats, votes won by BSP and SP exceeded those won by BJP by more than 20,000. This reality apparently prompted SP and BSP to align to contest the 2019 parliamentary elections. While BJP retained its lead, in 2019 it won 62 seats, nine lesser than it had secured in 2014. The BSP won 10 seats, SP-five, and Congress only one. BJP’s performance in coming polls cannot be de-linked from strategies exercised by its rivals.
Notwithstanding the political significance of Yogi’s religious (communal) card, it is not much different from that of Shah. In fact, religious/communal cards, the negative impact of Covid-wave, farmers’ agitation, inflation, and similar issues place most key BJP members in the same dock for voters. Besides, Covid-panic and economic grievances have pushed Yogi’s religious shows to the backburner in general.
At present, a few key legislators’ resignations from BJP to join SP is perhaps just a warning signal for Yogi. It certainly provides ample reason for some party members to question his credentials and perhaps even choose to ruffle a few more anti-Yogi cards. Irrespective of cards exercised by rival parties, a political storm within BJP’s own camp is likely to be quite testing ground for Yogi in UP-polls. Intra-party politicking within BJP may create political problems for Yogi in UP and hamper his future plans!