“If there is a paradise on earth, It is this, it is this, it is this”
-Amir Khusrau
by Mansvi Singh 21 July 2021
Introduction
Kashmir has remained an issue of severe concern between India and Pakistan since its inception. They have fought wars over this issue but without any tangible success. The only limited success has been that India has discussed the issue as a part of the composite dialogue process and Pakistan has shown willingness to explore options other than UN Resolutions on Kashmir.
Genesis of Conflict
In a technical sense, Kashmir became independent on 15 August 1947. It posed a unique problem to India and Pakistan as it was claimed by both nations for ideological and geostrategic reasons.
As J&K had a Muslim majority (72.41%), the leaders of Pakistan thought the Kashmir region ‘belonged’ to Pakistan. In October 1947, Pakistan sent tribal infiltrators from its side to capture Kashmir. This forced the Maharaja to request Indian military aid, leading him to sign the ‘Instrument of Accession’ to the Indian Union. Even after the Indian military intervention, Pakistan controlled a considerable part of Kashmir which lead to a deadlock.
India, Pakistan and their Kashmir Policy
India and Pakistan’s Kashmir policy has several facets. Pakistan’s Policy rests on two legs, the UN Resolutions, and cross-border terrorism whereas India’s Policy combats cross-border terrorism, establishing democracy, and international criticism of Pakistan.
Under the Simla Agreement 1972, both nations committed to the resolution of the Kashmir conflict bilaterally. Hence, the UN Resolutions have gradually become contextually redundant. Almost three decades later, the Lahore Declaration of 1999 reiterated the bilateralism enshrined in the Simla Agreement.
Cross-border terrorism has been increasingly used as a policy tool. This stands as one of the several immediate factors which began an insurgency in Kashmir in the late 1980s. It is proved beyond a reasonable doubt, about the use of terrorism by Pakistan to fight India in Kashmir. India has used its iron fist to combat terrorism. It also decided to fence the LoC to reduce infiltrators. New Delhi offered to hold talks with various stakeholders through its interlocutors.
In spite of internal turmoil, democracy has prevailed in J&K since 1951, barring periods when the state had come under President’s rule. The 1987 elections were labeled as ‘flawed’ and highlighted the distrust of New Delhi and the National Conference among the people of the Valley. This remains another factor for causing insurgency. Nevertheless, people exercised their franchise in assembly elections and parliamentary elections, recently being 2014 and 2019 respectively.
There has been a major policy shift in US-Pak Relations after the death of Osama Bin Laden, who was finally found in the safe heavens of Pakistan. A shrinking US military footprint and changes in global order have reshaped Washington’s thinking.
The framing of charges against Hafiz Saeed by an anti-terrorism court in Lahore is the direct implication of FATF actions, an organisation that is de facto run by the US Treasury Department. FATF further threatens to take Pakistan from ‘grey list’ to ‘black list’ if it doesn’t crackdown on terror.
Missed Opportunity
The Indo-Pak Peace Process (2003-08) was one of the best phases of the India-Pakistan relationship. The period between witnessed hectic diplomatic and political activities.
In April 2010, former Pakistani Foreign Minister Khursheed Kasuri stated, the previous Musharraf government had completed almost 90 percent of the spadework by 2007, it just needed the formal signature of all the three parties—Pakistan, India, and Kashmir. According to Kasuri, the deal was to be signed in March 2007 when Dr. Singh would have been invited to visit Pakistan. But, by early 2007 Musharraf started losing his power and legitimacy and Dr. Singh realized he didn’t have the political support from his own party.
The Composite Dialogue Process broke after the Mumbai terror attack committed by the Lashkar-e-Taiba on 26 November 2008. In less than twelve months, the relationship deteriorated so much that from signing a peace deal on Kashmir, India and Pakistan almost went to war. This shows the scale of impact Pakistan-based terror organisations has on the bilateral relationship.
The Inability of the BJP Government
In 2014, when the BJP Government came into power, there was some hope that relations between them will improve. The geniality between the two PMs did not last long as the terror attacks continued. The PDP-BJP alliance to gain power was foresighted to fall into nemesis considering the wide differences.
The BJP’s nationalist baggage also prevents it from talking meaningfully to Pakistan in Kashmir.
It’s inability to resolve the Kashmir issue also stems from its domestic political compulsions. After labelling separatists as ‘Pakistan-backed terrorists’, it has failed to reach out to them.
As a result of this inability, there is a feeling in New Delhi that it is easy to contain the Kashmir issue rather than go through the difficult and costly conflict resolution process. Then, hard-line strategies is what the government depends on.
What needs to be done?
India, Pakistan and Kashmir need to make peace with their complicated past relationship. A permanent and sustainable solution to the Kashmir issue is unlikely to emerge without the involvement of Pakistan. There is a need to revisit the dialogue process decisions reached by the two countries. The concepts of ‘integration’ and ‘soft border’ are worth a try. There is hardly any talk about the Musharraf formula or the back-channel parlays.
Peace in Kashmir cannot be established without involving the Kashmiris in the conflict. Hence, India needs to address various organisations and the people of Kashmir.
Conclusion
India and Pakistan have been fierce nations particularly on the issue of Kashmir. The two nations’ divergent foreign policy has hindered them to even talk. If there have been negotiations, they did not end conclusively. There was a ray of belief in the BJP government, but its hard-line approach cannot bring a solution to this issue.
India and Pakistan shared information on locust infestation, established the Kartarpur Sahib corridor, and cooperated against the COVID-19 pandemic. Then, why there is no hope for Kashmir talks too?