Trinamool Congress Party (TMC) chief and West Bengal Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee seems keen about being given the responsibility of heading India-bloc, an alliance of opposition parties, which is at present headed by Congress leader, Rahul Gandhi. Undeniably, this lady has had her eyes set on high political ambitions from the day she stepped into politics as a member of Congress party. Conscious about her reach being limited within the Congress, she chose to part company with it and form her own party, with primarily her being at its helm from the very beginning. Shrewd political strategies have definitely prompted her to play the needed cards as situation demanded. She chose to assert her political importance through the Lok Sabha from 1984 onwards, initially as a member of Congress. The lady has held various ministerial posts in the cabinet also, first as a part of Congress-led alliance headed by Prime Minister Narsimha Rao. When differences with Congress led her to part company with it, she formed TMC in 1997 and subsequently joined the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) headed by Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) with Atal Bihari Vajpayee as Prime Minister.
Interestingly, from the beginning, Mamata appears well-versed in using communication strategies which are bound to gain her substantial attention. These include her displaying protest against politician Jayaprakash Narayan (known as JP) by dancing on his car in1975. JP is remembered for his opposition against Prime Minister Indira Gandhi and trying for her overthrow in a “total revolution.” That was the period when Mamata had begun her political career as a member of the Congress. She also hit headlines for her scuffle in the Lok Sabha with Daroga Prasad Saroj of Samajwadi Party (SP). She held him by the collar and dragged him out of the well of Lok Sabha to prevent him from protesting against Women’s Reservation Bill on 11 December 1998. In addition to enhancing her importance politically at the national level and in her home state, while at the center, she also used the time to increase her party’s political base. She was smart enough not to try countering CPM in West Bengal, while the party enjoyed strong support of voters with Jyoti Basu as chief minister for more than 20 years (1987-2000), followed by Buddhadeb Bhattacharya for around a decade (2001-2011). Subsequently, TMC has headed the government with Mamata as the chief minister.
Mamata is credited for having checked efforts made by BJP leaders, including Prime Minister Narendra Modi to push TMC out of power in West Bengal. At the same time, it cannot be ignored that BJP’s strength is greater in the state than what it was more than two decades ago. During the last Assembly elections in 2021, interestingly, though TMC won with a two-thirds majority, Mamata was defeated by BJP candidate Suvendu Adhikari with 1,956 votes. Later, she won Bhabanipur by-election with a margin of 58,835 votes.
Against this backdrop, what can be said about her desire to head India-bloc as the opposition leader? She has displayed no hesitation in openly expressing this desire of hers. She has been backed by a few India-bloc leaders. Mamata certainly has the right to consider this option. However, there are certain limitations which cannot be ignored. Though she is not an unknown figure, the political and electoral reach of her party as well as her own remains primarily confined to West Bengal. True, there is no denying that Congress has recently suffered a setback in Haryana as well as Maharashtra. But should only Congress and Rahul Gandhi be blamed for these defeats? In Haryana, Aam Aadmi Party (AAP)’s over-confidence of doing well on its own apparently helped BJP win. An alliance was not reached between AAP and Congress. The AAP fought from 89 seats, won no seat and secured less than two percent votes. Congress won 37 seats against 48 of 90-member Haryana Assembly won by BJP with there being difference of less than one percent votes won by the two parties. BJP received 39.94% votes, while Congress got 39.04% votes. In Maharashtra, campaign of regional leaders, including Sharad Pawar (NCP-SP) and Uddhav Thackeray (SS-UT) was expected to help India-bloc fare better. The success of India-bloc in Jharkhand with Congress and Jharkhand Mukti Morcha (JMM) in the lead cannot be ignored. Nor can that of Congress in Karnataka. Of greater importance is the electoral reality of Congress having won more seats in Lok Sabha than any other member of India-bloc. Against 99 won by Congress as a part of India-bloc, TMC won 29 while Samajwadi Party (SP) won 37. SP candidate succeeded in defeating BJP from the much publicized Faizabad constituency, which includes Ayodhya. Here, SP candidate Awadesh Prasad defeated Lallu Singh of BJP. SP needs to be taken note of as it won 37 seats from Uttar Pradesh (UP) against 33 won by BJP. In this context, it is also important that success of Congress in Lok Sabha polls, includes seats won in ten states/union territories. The same doesn’t hold for other members of India-bloc, including TMC and SP, both of whom won seats only from West Bengal and UP, respectively.
It may be recalled, ahead of Maharashtra Assembly Polls, quite a few members of India-bloc were openly critical of Congress’ failure to defeat BJP in Haryana. The reality that Congress lost these polls cannot be ignored. However, if members of this alliance chose to question its credentials when campaigning as one bloc for Maharashtra polls was crucial, it was equivalent to displaying their own weakness before the voters and literally help their rivals take political advantage of the same. Not surprisingly, performance of not just Congress, but key parties of this alliance was also quite poor in Maharashtra polls.
The gradual but definite rise of BJP in West Bengal cannot also be ignored. BJP, the party which had zero seats in 2011 West Bengal Assembly, won 3 in 2016 Assembly elections, which increased to 77 in 2021 state polls. Till 2014, the BJP secured either none or at most one/two seats out of 42 Lok Sabha seats from West Bengal. At present, it has 12 and had won 18 in 2019 Lok Sabha polls. Now, this is hardly suggestive of Mamata being a great success in checking the rise of BJP in her own home state. At present, by hoping to gain leadership of India-bloc, she is apparently displaying over-confidence or is perhaps trying political strategy directed towards primarily targeting Rahul and his party, which may not help India-bloc at all but instead prove beneficial for its rivals.
Undeniably, Mamata has the right to express her desire to head the India-bloc, the alliance of opposition parties, which is at present headed by Rahul Gandhi. As mentioned, a few other members of the alliance have expressed their support for her. Mamata’s desire has been reportedly dismissed by Congress members with some describing it as a joke. Rahul has asked his party members not to “react” to Mamata’s apparent aim. Practically speaking, where would Mamata’s pursuit be without support of Congress and that of other parties within the India-bloc. Till date, her aim has been supported by less than five parties of India-bloc, which includes more than a dozen parties. In other words, at present, there seems to be hardly any overwhelming support for this political ambition of hers!