What do headlines and reports giving importance to infighting within the INDIA-bloc over sharing of seats for assembly elections scheduled to be held in Jharkhand and Maharashtra really suggest? Simply speaking, one gets the impression that chances of this anti-BJP alliance remaining together seem fairly dim, if its members continue differing in this manner. A few have also talked about going “solo” to contest the polls, if they are not granted the number of seats they desire to contest from. There is no denying, failure of Indian National Congress (INC) to defeat Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in the recently held Haryana Assembly elections seem to have given certain parties adequate ground to become more aggressive and loud against the former over sharing of seats in Jharkhand and Maharashtra. Where does this place Congress as well as the opposition leader Rahul Gandhi? Of course, certain leaders seem to be going overboard in cornering him. This list is perhaps headed by Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) leader Arvind Kejriwal. This is marked by his comment that AAP will contest the Delhi Assembly polls alone scheduled for early next year because of Congress having lost the Haryana elections.
In all probability, even if Congress had won Haryana polls, Kejriwal would have still insisted on contesting Delhi elections without any alliance of AAP with Congress. The explanation is simple. He is not keen on “his” political space in Delhi being dented by any other party, particularly Congress. Besides, one of his key political motives always appears to have been prevent strengthening of the Congress and leadership of Rahul. Kejriwal seems desperately keen to enhance his own political image across the country. Of course he has the right to do so and he will succeed, if voters also support him. One can cite several instances where electoral strength of Congress has been cut, leading to success of BJP, because of apparently AAP candidates being fielded even when they did not have any political base there. It is possible, results of Haryana may have favored Congress, if this strategy was not tried by AAP here. Decision of Congress not to yield to other parties’ demand for greater share in Haryana Assembly elections was apparently based on its success in winning five seats in Lok Sabha polls. It may be noted, AAP did not win a single seat in Haryana Lok Sabha as well as Assembly elections. Attempt made by Kejriwal to promote his image as son of Haryana did not help him.
Where Jharkhand is concerned, it may be more practical of INDIA-bloc parties to consider their seat-sharing agreement on votes as well as seats won by their parties in the recent Lok Sabha and the preceding assembly elections. It may be noted, BJP has a strong base here, which is marked by its victory in eight out of 14 Lok Sabha seats. Jharkhand Mukti Morcha (JMM) won three, the Congress-two and one was won by AJSU Party (AJSUP). In addition, against around 45% votes won by BJP, JMM secured nearly 15% and Congress-19% votes. It is possible, if the latter had not aligned, even their seats and votes may have been won by BJP. During the preceding assembly polls, BJP won 25 of the 81 seats, JMM-30 and Congress-16. The latter two aligned to form the state government. The percentage of votes won by other parties in parliamentary elections, particularly the ones keen for more seats may also be briefly glanced at. While Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) managed less than three percent, the CPI fell short of securing even one percent. This only suggests, if Congress and JMM have chosen not to yield to their demand, political calculations have apparently commanded them to adopt this stand. The same may be said about electoral strategies exercised by Congress during Haryana polls.
Paradoxically, dissatisfied with India-bloc’s seat-sharing agreement, CPI has decided to test its own strength by contesting solo from 15 seats. In contrast, though a little annoyed by Congress, the other two have, reportedly, decided to fight as India-bloc, in accordance with which JMM will contest in 41 seats, Congress-30, RJD-six and CPI(ML) in four seats. Fear that they may not succeed without banking on their alliance and the risk of BJP making most of their intra-bloc differences has probably prompted RJD and CPI(ML) to finally backtrack from their earlier demands and yield to this agreement.
Undeniably, each party within the India-bloc needs to give greater importance not just to its own demand but also whether it’s past electoral standing supports the same or not. Besides, the priority of these parties is to ensure greater success against BJP. There is no denying, as displayed by Lok Sabha results and votes won by BJP as well as its performance in 2019 polls, that this party has a strong standing in Jharkhand. In addition, BJP leaders have a definite command over the nature of electoral strategies needed to turn tables against rival parties/candidates favored in the electoral race. Certainly, they don’t always succeed. What cannot be ignored is that BJP leaders’ electoral strategies for greater part of their campaign have focused on not just ensuring their own party’s success but also on playing cards to divide vote banks of their key rivals, including Congress and regional parties. It may be noted, BJP’s success also rests on moves which divide their rivals’ vote-banks. In this context, infighting within the India-bloc may be viewed as equivalent to setting the stage for a better performance of BJP than perhaps this party expects. To a degree, in certain elections, parties such as AAP have apparently contributed to this “success” of BJP.
However, owing to a telephonic conversation between RJD leader Lalu Prasad and Jharkhand Chief Minister Hemant Soren (JMM), that India-bloc parties have resolved their seat-sharing differences probably spells some relief for these leaders. Against backdrop of Haryana results, perhaps it is imperative for India-bloc not just to “unite” to contest the polls, as they appear to have for now, they also need to be extra-vigilant about strategies being exercised by their rivals. Victory in elections rests not just on their own campaigns but also on how do voters get swayed by whom. Clearly, as BJP’s political standing in Jharkhand cannot be ignored, it’s equally relevant for India-bloc leaders to focus on their own campaigning defying that of their key rivals. The latter can give BJP a hard fight, if they plan and also campaign in this direction. Jharkhand may not be an easy domain to win electorally for either BJP or India-bloc, if such politicking is indulged in by these key rival camps!