NEW DELHI — Despite the ceasefire between India and Pakistan announced on May 10, New Delhi’s unilateral cancellation in late April of their bilateral water-sharing treaty continues to create tension for Islamabad.
In the latest twist, a verbal jab by Chinese scholar has created a buzz in diplomatic circles in India.
“Just like rivers from India flow into Pakistan, rivers from China also flow into India. … If India acts against others, it should be prepared for similar responses in return,” Victor Zhikai Gao, vice president of the Center for China and Globalization in Beijing, told an Indian TV channel earlier this month. “Don’t do onto others what you don’t want done to you,” he warned.
Gao hinted that if New Delhi stops or diverts the water flow of the Indus river and threatens Pakistan’s economy, China, as an ally of Pakistan, might also do the same to the Brahmaputra River, which flows from China’s Tibet Autonomous Region to India’s northeast.
India declared its abrogation of the Indus Waters Treaty on April 23, a day after a deadly attack killed 26 civilians in the Indian-administered part of Kashmir.
Chinese President Xi Jinping, right, and Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif greet each other at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing in June 2024. (China Daily via Reuters) © ReutersGao once worked at China’s Foreign Ministry, although he is now a scholar and does not represent Beijing officially.
“The Chinese have not issued any formal statement threatening to stop Brahmaputra’s flow into India,” a senior official with India’s Ministry of External Affairs told Nikkei Asia on condition of anonymity. “India is rightfully reclaiming its sovereign rights over river waters, so we have nothing to worry about.”
However, Indian specialists in diplomacy and geology argue Gao’s comments highlight a significant threat to the country.
B. R. Deepak, a professor at the Centre for Chinese and South East Asian Studies at Jawaharlal Nehru University in New Delhi, said it would be nearly impossible to cut off the flow of the Brahmaputra because the volume of its tributaries inside India far exceeds those within China. Any Chinese interference with the river waters would have minimal impact on India, Deepak said. However, he highlighted a crucial difference between the Indus Waters Treaty and India’s relations with China over the Brahmaputra: In the latter case, there is no binding agreement between the two countries.
“As there’s no formal document with China, its upstream position allows it to act unilaterally, fueling fears of it using water as a geopolitical tool to settle scores with India,” he said.
For Deepak, it is critical for India to assess the effects of possible Chinese intervention through research and to put in place an adaptive strategy. “To preempt any foul play on China’s part, India should convince it to transparently share critical hydrological data on its Brahmaputra interventions. We need a dedicated water management dialogue to address this issue,” Deepak added.
Environmentalists point out that even if China has no official plans to tinker with the Brahmaputra, Beijing’s announcement last year that it plans to construct the world’s largest hydroelectric dam, called Medog, across the Brahmaputra, is sufficient cause for concern. Once completed, the $137 billion hydropower project will generate three times more electricity than the Three Gorges Dam, currently the world’s largest hydroelectric power station by installed capacity.
An aerial view shows the Three Gorges Dam on the Yangtze River in Yichang, China. © ReutersRitesh Arya, a geologist working in the Himalayan region, fears the dam’s construction could jeopardize the fragile ecosystem of the entire Himalayan belt.
“The dam’s location, just 30 kilometers from India’s border, will exacerbate the risk of flash floods, particularly during monsoons, triggering serious environmental harm in one of the world’s most seismically active regions. Worse, India lacks detailed hydrological data about China’s dam projects, which will make it difficult to assess risks and plan for potential impacts.”
Such a dam is also a security threat as it is just across the border from India’s northeastern state of Arunachal Pradesh, which is claimed by China. The two countries also share a 3,488 km border, much of it disputed.
“If the dam fails due to seismic activity, structural flaws or sabotage, it could wreak havoc in India’s northeastern states. As the upstream power, China could leverage it as a weapon to release excess water during [the] monsoon and worsen already severe flooding in northeastern states,” Arya warned.
The article appeared in the asia.nikkei